Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight talents Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes will collide this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024) at UFC 304 inside Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.
At 31 years of age, Aspinall very much appears to be the future of the Heavyweight division. Already the interim champion, Aspinall combines a well-rounded skillset with incredible physical attributes like few others. Though he seems primed to rule the big man roost for years to come, few are built to play spoiler quite like Blaydes. Indeed, “Razor” is a grinding wrestler with five-rounds of cardio. He’s an atypical style for the division, the exact kind of fighter who can make a flashy finisher look mediocre if able to play his game.
Two years ago, Blaydes defeated Aspinall in seconds because of a freak knee injury (watch it). Ahead of their rematch, let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Aspinall Vs. Blaydes Betting Odds
- Tom Aspinall victory: -355
- Tom Aspinall via TKO/KO/DQ: -165
- Tom Aspinall via submission: +400
- Tom Aspinall via decision: +1000
- Curtis Blaydes victory: +280
- Curtis Blaydes via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
- Curtis Blaydes via submission: +2500
- Curtis Blaydes via decision: +900
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Aspinall Wins
Aspinall is far too quick for a man that weighs in around 260 pounds. It’s simply unfair. He blitzes forward with monstrous knockout punches and lightning double legs alike, and he’s proven himself an instant finisher on the canvas too.
We have yet to see him hit the seven minute mark in his UFC career.
Opposite Blaydes, sprawl-and-brawl is the obvious game plan. Aspinall is the sharper boxer with more proven power, and it only takes one clean connection for him to the end the fight. Perhaps the most important part of avoiding the takedown is footwork. Blaydes doesn’t have a particularly fast shot. He generally needs to time his opponent perfectly or get them along the fence first, at which point the pace slows down and he’s able to get to work.
Aspinall showed great lateral movement against Sergei Pavlovich, using his side-to-side motion to walk Pavlovich into a massive punch. Against another fairly foot-slow Heavyweight in Blaydes, he should be doing the same and making Blaydes really work for every inch of distance covered.
How Blaydes Wins
A collegiate wrestler with good power in his hands, Blaydes has been working for this title shot for many years. He’s always come up just short in the past, consistently at the hands of only the biggest hitters in Heavyweight history (Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis, Pavlovich).
Blaydes’ path to victory is wrestling, but more to the point, it’s in extending the fight. Obviously, Blaydes wants to gain top position and grind down Aspinall, but that’s going to be very difficult to do while Aspinall is at his fastest and most powerful. Here’s a fun fact about Aspinall: only three of his fights every made it into the second round, and he lost two of them.
It’s been many years since those defeats, but we’ve all seen Heavyweights who gas and fall apart as soon as the fight goes long. Most likely, Aspinall falls in that category to some degree. Therefore, Blaydes would be wise to employ some patience, not force early exchanges, and try to stay defensively sound early on.
If he can survive until the start of round three, his chance of victory skyrockets.
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Aspinall Vs. Blaydes Prediction
It’s really hard to go against history here.
I like Blaydes a lot and think he could be champion with the right match ups. I’m also a firm believer that every Heavyweight who appears to be really good is secretly quite bad at something. The recipe for an ugly wrestling match that leaves the Manchester crowd shaking in rage is certainly there, and it would be far from the first time a talented English striker gets laid on.
Yet, there’s the simple fact that Blaydes is hittable holding me back from picking the upset. Hittable against Aspinall? That’s a really, really bad trait. It only takes one connection from Aspinall to send his opponent off on wobbly legs, and he’s a ridiculous finisher once he smells blood.
Blaydes has to be perfect for at least the first round — a tall ask.
Prediction: Aspinal via KO/TKO/DQ (-165)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Belal 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.