Bellator 155: “Carvalho vs. Manhoef” comes to CenturyLink Arena in Boise, Idaho, tomorrow night (Fri., May 20, 2016), live on Spike TV with a five-fight main card that starts at 9 p.m. ET. The main event for the evening features the first-ever Middleweight title defense for Rafael Carvalho against hard-hitting combat sports veteran Melvin Manhoef.
Carvalho hadn’t lost a fight since his professional debut in 2011, but because of a less than thrilling win over Joe Schilling at Bellator 136, many observers (including this writer) expected “Bull” Brandon Halsey to hand him his butt at Bellator 144 and reclaim the vacant 185-pound title. However, Carvalho flipped the script with one well-timed kick that put Halsey out of action and marked a new era for the Middleweight division. To keep that era going he’ll need to face down a legendarily hard hitting fighter in “No Mercy” Manhoef.
Let’s break down the Spike TV-televised card:
185 lbs.: Rafael Carvalho (c) (12-1) vs. Melvin Manhoef (30-12-1)
Manhoef’s credentials are among the best a challenger can have — an astounding 93 percent of his mixed martial arts (MMA) wins (28 of 30) have come via knockout. And in kickboxing he’s not far behind (27 of 37) at 73 percent. Reading through his victories reveals impressive career wins over Mark Hunt, Kazushi Sakuraba, Denis Kang and Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos just to name a few. The losses, meanwhile, also reveal that Manhoef has never shied away from tough competition — Gegard Mousasi, Robbie Lawler and Tim Kennedy, among others.
If Carvalho intends to retain his hard-earned title he needs to exploit the timing issues that have cost Manhoef in some of his biggest fights. He can be mesmerized by his own punching power and forget to put up his hands before a counter shot comes. And even though his ground game has improved considerably over the last five years, 58 percent of his losses (seven of 12) have come via submission. Carvalho relies almost solely on his striking power (10 of 12, 83 percent) to get the win — he hasn’t tapped out an opponent yet in his career.
It would be a pleasant surprise for Carvalho to show off a new aspect of his overall game, especially given Manhoef has a potential vulnerability there, but very few MMA fighters will stop doing what it works until it stops working. I expect this to be a stand up war and a fast fight as a result. Manhoef will try to be first out of the gate and land the harder shot, and if Carvalho can block or dodge and counter effectively, he’ll walk out of the cage with win No. 13 … no luck required.
Final prediction: Rafael Carvalho retains the Middleweight title via knockout
145 lbs.: Pat Curran (21-7) vs. Georgi Karakhanyan (24-5-1)
Curran has very little to prove to anybody who knows his resume. He is a two-time Featherweight champion in Bellator, and with a 2-1 record against Daniel Straus, fans would no doubt like to see him get one more title shot. His versatility is his strongest asset — five wins by knockout, seven by submission, nine by decision. In other words, Curran is up for any kind of fight — he’s capable of changing up his strategy on the fly and can mount a wild comeback at any time.
Former World Series of Fighting (WSOF) Featherweight champion Georgi Karakhanyan can’t be overlooked, though, something everyone from Lance Palmer to Bubba Jenkins knows all too well. His skillset is a little more lopsided with 14 wins by submission, six by decision and four knockouts. I’d give Karakhanyan the edge on the ground, but Curran is crafty enough to avoid being tapped out and turn the tables if it goes there. He’d probably prefer to keep it standing given Karakhanyan’s resume, but if iron sharpens iron, then Lorenz Larkin and Saad Awad will have “Insane” Karakhanyan well prepared.
Final prediction: Georgi Karakhanyan wins a unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Dan Charles (10-3) vs. Augusto Sakai (9-0)
Charles always seems to be on the verge of breaking out as a Heavyweight before a guy like “Mighty Mo” Siliga or “Dominator” Bobby Lashley knocks him down a peg or three. The good news is that at 30 years old, he’s still young and still has time to put together an impressive streak and become a star. The bad news is that Sakai, 24, is younger, hungrier and undefeated to date. He scores the knockout in 77 percent of his fights (seven of nine), while Charles only does in 46 percent (six of 13) by comparison. An upset is always possible, but in my opinion, highly unlikely.
Final prediction: Augusto Sakai remains undefeated via technical knockout
145 lbs.: Marloes Coenen (23-6) vs. Alexis Dufresne (5-2)
This fight was originally supposed to crown the inaugural Women’s Featherweight champion in Bellator, but when Julia Budd (8-2) pulled out with an injury former UFC fighter Dufresne stepped in on short notice for what is now a non-title bout. Momentum is not on Dufresne’s side – she’s only had two bouts in the last two plus years and they were both losses. Former Strikeforce champion Coenen is on a two fight WIN streak, and a vicious 74% of her wins end by submission (17 of 23). Dufresne’s advantages — she’s younger and she has three knockouts — just won’t be enough.
Final prediction: Marloes Coenen via armbar submission
265 lbs.: Joey Beltran (17-12) vs. Chase Gormley (12-5)
You can call this bout “bowling shoe ugly” or a “slobberknocker” because it would be entirely accurate. Beltran is even (3-3) in his last six, while Gormley got his Bellator career off to an inauspicious start with a knockout loss to the aforementioned Charles. Gormley’s got the advantage, though, given that Beltran is the naturally smaller Heavyweight and has routinely fought at Middleweight and Light Heavyweight. Gormley is 6’3″ and 264 pounds, a former Titan FC champion, and doesn’t have nearly the tread worn off his tires that Beltran does. This should end quickly.
Final prediction: Chase Gormley wins via first round knockout
155 lbs.: Dave Jansen (20-3) vs. Marcin Held (21-4)
Here’s a bonus prediction for a bout to headline the prelims! Jansen has been out of action for over a year dating back to Bellator 136. Before that point his seven straight wins put him on the path to a title shot against Will Brooks, but much like his opponent Held that chance ended in disappointment in 2015. The bigger piece of this picture may be the fact that the aforementioned seven fight streak includes a win over Held at Bellator 93. Even though he’s a “Polish Prodigy” in jiu-jitsu it didn’t help him against the outstanding wrestling skill set Jansen has, and while Held’s striking has improved rapidly I don’t think he stands a better chance of outpointing him this time than last time.
Final prediction: Dave Jansen gets the win via unanimous decision
That’s a wrap!
MMAmania.com will deliver live coverage of Bellator 155: “Carvalho vs Manhoef” tomorrow night, with real-time results throughout the evening followed by Spike TV fights at 9 p.m. ET. To check out the latest Bellator MMA-related news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive news archive right here.