Bellator vs. UFC: Tale of the tape

With Bellator and UFC going head-to-head on television, and presenting live events a short drive apart on Friday night, the beneficiary looks to be the fans that are getting bigger names that would usually be appearing on a television card. And the night will be an interesting experiment regarding what the current MMA audience is truly interested in.

UFC president Dana White will tell you that Friday night is nothing but a series of coincidences.

Bellator opens its fall season at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Uncasville, Conn., on its usual Friday night, with what is for them, a loaded show featuring a featherweight title fight. It also has matches with two of their biggest known names in King Mo Lawal and Cheick Kongo, and the first time an existing world champion with a nationally televised American pro wrestling company fights for real in more than 60 years.

The UFC rarely runs on Friday. It just happens to be doing so this night. And it just happens to be running in a small arena at the Foxwood Resort Casino in Mashantucket, Conn., only eight miles away.

“If you guys really think we look at Bellator and give a s*** what’s going on or what they’re doing, we don’t,” White said back in June when this “coincidence” of going head-to-head not only on television but nearly a stone’s throw away live, first came to light. “That’s just the date that we landed on. We get the dates from FOX. We don’t pick our own dates. We get the dates. They give us the dates they need us to go on, and it’s determined by other programming they have, or what’s going on that night.”

But it has led to a battle anyway, and the head-to-head date almost certainly led to Bellator bolstering its lineup. It absolutely led to them moving their starting time up one hour from usual, going on the air on Spike at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

The UFC also has a stronger lineup than most Fight Nights, headlined by a Gegard Mousasi (35-4-2) vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (20-3, 1 no contest) battle of top middleweight contenders. The winner could conceivably get the next shot at the UFC middleweight title after the Dec. 6 fight with champion Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort. The fight is a rematch of a tournament final for the Dream middleweight title back on Sept. 23, 2008, at the Saitama Super Arena outside of Tokyo, Japan, when Mousasi knocked out a then-inexperienced Souza in 2:15 with an up kick.

The UFC will be featuring five straight hours of live fights, ten fights in all, on FS 1, from 7 p.m. until approximately midnight, or perhaps a little longer.

Bellator will be airing five fights on Spike, starting at 8 p.m., and climaxing with Pat Curran (20-5) defending his Bellator featherweight title against Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (21-2). This is also a rematch, of a split decision win by Curran to retain the am title on Jan. 17, 2013, in Irvine, Calif. Freire’s two career losses were both Bellator title matches, one with Curran and another with Joe Warren, both of which were very close fights.

The night will teach a lot about the mentality and makeup of the mixed martial arts television audience in 2014.

Do the two companies have a separate audience, and is the audience more UFC or Bellator fans? Is the audience more UFC fans but many will watch Bellator on Fridays because there isn’t a UFC show on? Or is it an MMA audience that doesn’t care the name of the company, and just tunes in to see bouts with familiar fighters? Will fans stick with one show, or will they switch back-and-forth between stations based on the fights they most want to see? Will they watch one and DVR the other? Or will they watch one and have no interest in the other?

The key in this case will be not just the ratings numbers, but whether it’s an audience that stays with one show, or tunes back-and-forth, and even if DVR numbers, usually small for live sports, are up from usual.

And there is a third player in this game, since the ratings king on Friday nights is WWE Smackdown. The show generally draws between 2.4 million to 2.8 million viewers, and will likely draw more viewers than UFC and Bellator combined. With the exception of the Disney Channel, Smackdown usually dominates Friday nights on cable. WWE, which tapes its Friday night shows the previous Tuesday, has responded somewhat, by putting the company’s biggest star, John Cena, who rarely works on Smackdown, on the show this week. WWE didn’t go so far as to put former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar, its most expensive per-event star, on Smackdown.

Fans who want to see the big fights will be able to do so without much overlap.

Bobby Lashley (10-2), the world champion with TNA Wrestling, Spike’s pro wrestling property, will do his first legitimate match since being given the title when he faces a seemingly overmatched Josh Burns (8-7) in a heavyweight bout. Burns, who weighed in at 262.75 pounds, is 0-4 in Bellator and only lasted longer than 2:23 is one of those fights. Lashley was a three-time NAIA champion in college, and a 2004 Olympic hopeful in Greco-Roman wrestling before going into pro wrestling. He’s also now 38 years old, but looks like he nearly stepped off a Mr. Olympia stage. Historically, he’s dominated the first round of every fight, but has had stamina issues in longer fights.

While pro wrestling world champions in Japan doing legitimate matches happens from time-to-time, the last time an American champion that did so was believed to be in a 1954 women’s title match. When Lesnar was champion in WWE in 2003, before his MMA debut, but when he wasn’t far removed from a stellar college wrestling career, WWE promoter Vince McMahon had talks about doing a legitimate mixed match with Lesnar vs. Lennox Lewis in Las Vegas. The talks fell apart quickly when Lewis’ side realized the pro wrestler was not going to be a fake fighter and an easy payday, and started asking for rules limiting takedowns and ground work.

Nevertheless, there doesn’t appear to be major interest among pro wrestling fans Lashley fighting for real. That fight is scheduled to open the Bellator show at shortly after 8 p.m., when UFC will be likely putting on Chris Camozzi (19-8) vs. Rafael Natal (17-6-1).

Bellator’s main event, with Curran vs. Freire, is likely to go into the cage at around 10 p.m., roughly the same time as Michael Chiesa (11-1) vs. Joe Lauzon (23-10). Both Freire and Lauzon have reputations for usually delivering some of the more exciting fights around.

The meat of the UFC show, two heavyweight fights with Matt Mitrione (7-3) vs. Derrick Lewis (11-2, 1 no contest) and Alistair Overeem (37-13, 1 no contest) vs. Ben Rothwell (33-9) , plus the middleweight main event of Mousasi vs. Souza, are all expected to take place after Bellator’s show is over.

Overeem, trimmed down to 248 pounds and training under Greg Jackson, can get into the title picture with an impressive win given the depth issues at heavyweight.

While the UFC fights are live across the country, Bellator will air on a three-hour tape delay, so it has the benefit of reaching the most viewers in prime time, on the West Coast. On the West Coast, the taped version of Lashley’s fight and Cheick Kongo (21-9-2) vs. Lavar Johnson (18-9) will go against the Overeem and Mousasi fights, but Bellator’s main event will air roughly an hour after the UFC broadcast goes off the air.

Bellator has a few advantages here. It’s airing in prime time on both the East and West Coast, and Spike is in 95.6 million homes while FS 1 is in 87.7 million homes. Bellator has also established Friday night as it’s usual night dating back one year, with an average audience of nearly 700,000 viewers on that night. From a star standpoint, is presenting a show that, had there been no competition, would be expected to easily beat that average.

Spike is also the higher rated network by a huge margin, giving Bellator the key edge in the baseline audience that will watch a prime time show on the channel. In addition, Bellator aired specific Countdown shows all week to build the matches and personalities on Friday.

The UFC’s biggest advantage is the three letters. It also has bigger names than are usually on an FS 1 show. It has Souza headlining, who is one of the best middleweights in the world, features Overeem, a major star heavyweight, and fighters like Lauzon, Chiesa and Mitrione who have good name recognition to MMA fans.

Bellator has the most attractive featherweight fight it can put on, and the lone title match of the night. It also has Kongo and Lawal, two of its bigger ratings draws, as well as the possibility of Lashley bringing over a new audience.

The UFC has the advantage of starting one hour earlier, and being live across all four time zones.

On the East Coast, Bellator’s main events are facing competition while UFC’s aren’t. On the West Coast, the situation is reversed.

Bellator’s main events, air in a more favorable time to draw a larger audience, as they should air from 9:30 to 10:30 p.m., while UFC’s are 11 p.m. to midnight.

UFC should win as the name brand. But if the audience switches back-and-forth, watching Bellator’s main events and then UFC’s main events, then Bellator has a shot, given its advantages in time slot of the big matches and being in more homes. There are virtually no homes that can get the UFC that can’t get Bellator.  But there are millions of homes that can get Bellator that will have no access to UFC.

In Canada, the UFC show will only air on Fight Pass, due to Sports Net airing baseball and WWE. However, the Fight Pass airing of the show is blacked out in the U.S.

Poll
What will you watch Friday night?



  195 votes | Results

With Bellator and UFC going head-to-head on television, and presenting live events a short drive apart on Friday night, the beneficiary looks to be the fans that are getting bigger names that would usually be appearing on a television card. And the night will be an interesting experiment regarding what the current MMA audience is truly interested in.

UFC president Dana White will tell you that Friday night is nothing but a series of coincidences.

Bellator opens its fall season at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Uncasville, Conn., on its usual Friday night, with what is for them, a loaded show featuring a featherweight title fight. It also has matches with two of their biggest known names in King Mo Lawal and Cheick Kongo, and the first time an existing world champion with a nationally televised American pro wrestling company fights for real in more than 60 years.

The UFC rarely runs on Friday. It just happens to be doing so this night. And it just happens to be running in a small arena at the Foxwood Resort Casino in Mashantucket, Conn., only eight miles away.

“If you guys really think we look at Bellator and give a s*** what’s going on or what they’re doing, we don’t,” White said back in June when this “coincidence” of going head-to-head not only on television but nearly a stone’s throw away live, first came to light. “That’s just the date that we landed on. We get the dates from FOX. We don’t pick our own dates. We get the dates. They give us the dates they need us to go on, and it’s determined by other programming they have, or what’s going on that night.”

But it has led to a battle anyway, and the head-to-head date almost certainly led to Bellator bolstering its lineup. It absolutely led to them moving their starting time up one hour from usual, going on the air on Spike at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

The UFC also has a stronger lineup than most Fight Nights, headlined by a Gegard Mousasi (35-4-2) vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (20-3, 1 no contest) battle of top middleweight contenders. The winner could conceivably get the next shot at the UFC middleweight title after the Dec. 6 fight with champion Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort. The fight is a rematch of a tournament final for the Dream middleweight title back on Sept. 23, 2008, at the Saitama Super Arena outside of Tokyo, Japan, when Mousasi knocked out a then-inexperienced Souza in 2:15 with an up kick.

The UFC will be featuring five straight hours of live fights, ten fights in all, on FS 1, from 7 p.m. until approximately midnight, or perhaps a little longer.

Bellator will be airing five fights on Spike, starting at 8 p.m., and climaxing with Pat Curran (20-5) defending his Bellator featherweight title against Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (21-2). This is also a rematch, of a split decision win by Curran to retain the am title on Jan. 17, 2013, in Irvine, Calif. Freire’s two career losses were both Bellator title matches, one with Curran and another with Joe Warren, both of which were very close fights.

The night will teach a lot about the mentality and makeup of the mixed martial arts television audience in 2014.

Do the two companies have a separate audience, and is the audience more UFC or Bellator fans? Is the audience more UFC fans but many will watch Bellator on Fridays because there isn’t a UFC show on? Or is it an MMA audience that doesn’t care the name of the company, and just tunes in to see bouts with familiar fighters? Will fans stick with one show, or will they switch back-and-forth between stations based on the fights they most want to see? Will they watch one and DVR the other? Or will they watch one and have no interest in the other?

The key in this case will be not just the ratings numbers, but whether it’s an audience that stays with one show, or tunes back-and-forth, and even if DVR numbers, usually small for live sports, are up from usual.

And there is a third player in this game, since the ratings king on Friday nights is WWE Smackdown. The show generally draws between 2.4 million to 2.8 million viewers, and will likely draw more viewers than UFC and Bellator combined. With the exception of the Disney Channel, Smackdown usually dominates Friday nights on cable. WWE, which tapes its Friday night shows the previous Tuesday, has responded somewhat, by putting the company’s biggest star, John Cena, who rarely works on Smackdown, on the show this week. WWE didn’t go so far as to put former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar, its most expensive per-event star, on Smackdown.

Fans who want to see the big fights will be able to do so without much overlap.

Bobby Lashley (10-2), the world champion with TNA Wrestling, Spike’s pro wrestling property, will do his first legitimate match since being given the title when he faces a seemingly overmatched Josh Burns (8-7) in a heavyweight bout. Burns, who weighed in at 262.75 pounds, is 0-4 in Bellator and only lasted longer than 2:23 is one of those fights. Lashley was a three-time NAIA champion in college, and a 2004 Olympic hopeful in Greco-Roman wrestling before going into pro wrestling. He’s also now 38 years old, but looks like he nearly stepped off a Mr. Olympia stage. Historically, he’s dominated the first round of every fight, but has had stamina issues in longer fights.

While pro wrestling world champions in Japan doing legitimate matches happens from time-to-time, the last time an American champion that did so was believed to be in a 1954 women’s title match. When Lesnar was champion in WWE in 2003, before his MMA debut, but when he wasn’t far removed from a stellar college wrestling career, WWE promoter Vince McMahon had talks about doing a legitimate mixed match with Lesnar vs. Lennox Lewis in Las Vegas. The talks fell apart quickly when Lewis’ side realized the pro wrestler was not going to be a fake fighter and an easy payday, and started asking for rules limiting takedowns and ground work.

Nevertheless, there doesn’t appear to be major interest among pro wrestling fans Lashley fighting for real. That fight is scheduled to open the Bellator show at shortly after 8 p.m., when UFC will be likely putting on Chris Camozzi (19-8) vs. Rafael Natal (17-6-1).

Bellator’s main event, with Curran vs. Freire, is likely to go into the cage at around 10 p.m., roughly the same time as Michael Chiesa (11-1) vs. Joe Lauzon (23-10). Both Freire and Lauzon have reputations for usually delivering some of the more exciting fights around.

The meat of the UFC show, two heavyweight fights with Matt Mitrione (7-3) vs. Derrick Lewis (11-2, 1 no contest) and Alistair Overeem (37-13, 1 no contest) vs. Ben Rothwell (33-9) , plus the middleweight main event of Mousasi vs. Souza, are all expected to take place after Bellator’s show is over.

Overeem, trimmed down to 248 pounds and training under Greg Jackson, can get into the title picture with an impressive win given the depth issues at heavyweight.

While the UFC fights are live across the country, Bellator will air on a three-hour tape delay, so it has the benefit of reaching the most viewers in prime time, on the West Coast. On the West Coast, the taped version of Lashley’s fight and Cheick Kongo (21-9-2) vs. Lavar Johnson (18-9) will go against the Overeem and Mousasi fights, but Bellator’s main event will air roughly an hour after the UFC broadcast goes off the air.

Bellator has a few advantages here. It’s airing in prime time on both the East and West Coast, and Spike is in 95.6 million homes while FS 1 is in 87.7 million homes. Bellator has also established Friday night as it’s usual night dating back one year, with an average audience of nearly 700,000 viewers on that night. From a star standpoint, is presenting a show that, had there been no competition, would be expected to easily beat that average.

Spike is also the higher rated network by a huge margin, giving Bellator the key edge in the baseline audience that will watch a prime time show on the channel. In addition, Bellator aired specific Countdown shows all week to build the matches and personalities on Friday.

The UFC’s biggest advantage is the three letters. It also has bigger names than are usually on an FS 1 show. It has Souza headlining, who is one of the best middleweights in the world, features Overeem, a major star heavyweight, and fighters like Lauzon, Chiesa and Mitrione who have good name recognition to MMA fans.

Bellator has the most attractive featherweight fight it can put on, and the lone title match of the night. It also has Kongo and Lawal, two of its bigger ratings draws, as well as the possibility of Lashley bringing over a new audience.

The UFC has the advantage of starting one hour earlier, and being live across all four time zones.

On the East Coast, Bellator’s main events are facing competition while UFC’s aren’t. On the West Coast, the situation is reversed.

Bellator’s main events, air in a more favorable time to draw a larger audience, as they should air from 9:30 to 10:30 p.m., while UFC’s are 11 p.m. to midnight.

UFC should win as the name brand. But if the audience switches back-and-forth, watching Bellator’s main events and then UFC’s main events, then Bellator has a shot, given its advantages in time slot of the big matches and being in more homes. There are virtually no homes that can get the UFC that can’t get Bellator.  But there are millions of homes that can get Bellator that will have no access to UFC.

In Canada, the UFC show will only air on Fight Pass, due to Sports Net airing baseball and WWE. However, the Fight Pass airing of the show is blacked out in the U.S.

Poll
What will you watch Friday night?




  195 votes | Results