UFC Welterweight Bout: BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald
Odds: ( +225 Penn / -285 MacDonald )
Betting Pick: Penn
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In a featured Welterweight matchup, former UFC Lightweight and Welterweight champion BJ “The Prodigy” Penn will square off against Tristar Gym prospect Rory “Ares” MacDonald. Penn has long been recognized as one of the sport’s most technically gifted fighters, but questions about his motivation and conditioning have followed him for years. For this fight, though, he appears in far better shape than he has ever been at Welterweight and seems determined to cement his legacy as one of the greatest of all time. MacDonald, for his part, is already drawing comparisons to his Tristar Gym teammate Georges St. Pierre and is being pegged as a future Welterweight champion. This fight should go a long way toward determining whether Penn still has some of the skills that made him one of the best in the world or whether MacDonald is actually read for a shot at the top of the division.
Rory “Ares” MacDonald is, without a doubt, one of the most exciting young prospects in the UFC Welterweight division. Already one of the most versatile fighters in the Welterweight division, MacDonald has a devastating blend of striking, wrestling, and submissions reminiscent of St. Pierre before the Serra loss. In his only trip to the top of the division, he suffered his sole career loss against Carlos Condit in a fight he was seconds from winning. Since then, though, he has put together another impressive win streak and doesn’t appear to have many holes in his game. One big advantage he will have in this fight is size. Penn might weigh in around 170, but he will do it without cutting any weight. On fight night, MacDonald will easily outweigh Penn by 15 pounds or more. St. Pierre already showed that putting Penn on his back and smothering him with superior size is an effective technique, and MacDonald has the bulk to pull it off.
BJ “The Prodigy” Penn is one of only two men two hold UFC titles in two different weight classes, the other being former Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture. Penn is one of the most naturally gifted fighters in the sport’s young history, but his career has been filled with disappointments, generally due to a lack of motivation and proper conditioning. Even so, it is hard to deny that Penn is one of the most technical and effective boxers in Mixed Martial Arts or that his takedown defense is the stuff of legend. Penn has pinpoint accurate punching and very fast hands. He is also an extremely accomplished submission fighter, but he tends to rely on his superb takedown defense and boxing to overwhelm his opponents. Against MacDonald, he will be the superior technical striker but he will also be the substantially smaller fighter, so he is going to have to rely on his speed and natural takedown defense to avoid getting taken down and smothered.
This is a tough fight to call. Penn is clearly the more experienced of the two, but he will be giving up a huge amount of weight come fight night. I think this one is going to come down to how well MacDonald can use his size advantage to put BJ on the mat. GSP already showed a blueprint for beating Penn, but taking Penn down and holding him there without getting submitted is a lot easier said than done. In the end, I think Penn’s freakish ability to avoid takedowns is going to be his saving grace. In a three round fight, the likelihood of him running out of gas is much lower, and I think he should be able to outbox MacDonald handily en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: BJ Penn by Unaninous Decision.
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