MMAmania.com dissects four key match ups on the UFC Fight Night 82 line up, predicting who will likely pick up a special performance bonus check in “Sin City” later tonight (Sat., Feb. 6, 2016).
It may not boast a Heavyweight championship title fight anymore, but the newly-christened UFC Fight Night 82 card is just as potent without the likes of Fabricio Werdum and Cain Velasquez.
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) hosts its fourth mixed martial arts (MMA) event of the year in Las Vegas, Nevada, tonight (Sat., Feb. 6, 2016) inside MGM Grand Garden Arena, featuring a Welterweight main event pairing of ex-champion Johny Hendricks and rising karate specialist Stephen Thompson.
“Bigg Rigg” and “Wonderboy” are two of the most dangerous knockout artists in the 170-pound division, who are capable of ending a fight with one strike.
Elsewhere on the six-fight main card, which will be broadcast live on FOX Sports 1 at 10 p.m. ET, are intriguing tilts pitting Tennessee-based striker Ovince Saint-Preux against former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion Rafael Cavalcante, as well as another 205-pound tussle between dangerous Latvian Misha Cirkunov and Octagon newcomer Alex Nicholson.
Let’s dive deeper into each of the aforementioned “Sin City” exchanges and see if we can’t predict ourselves a finish or two. Shall we?
Derrick Lewis vs. Damian Grabowski
Total career finishes: 18 technical (knockout), 12 submission
My, my, my, what do we have here? Tucked away underneath the main card is a Heavyweight tilt between two men with extremely high finishing rates, so what are the chances that this bout delivers violence?
The likelihood is pretty high, I’d say.
Lewis is one of most fun heavyweights to watch in the entire division because of his ability to end a fight with one punch. In just two years, “The Black Beast” has tallied four wins via knockout, compared to two losses also by way of knockout.
The News Orleans native lives and dies by the sword.
Lewis, who will turn 31 the day after his fight with Grabowski, isn’t too keen on being pressured and he’s quite susceptible to the takedown. Before being knocked out cold with a hook kick by Shawn Jordan, Lewis was roughed up on the ground by “The Savage” before his hometown crowd last June.
Grabowski, a Polish submission specialist, is capable of wrenching an arm, or securing a choke, from a variety of positions. “Polish Pit Bull” is comfortable off of his back, or in top position, where he’s managed two arm-triangle chokes in his two most recent victories.
The 35-year-old is making his UFC debut so there is a fair amount of pressure on him to win and prove that he can get it done at the highest level in MMA. Grabowski likes to trade haymakers and from the looks of it, he can take a shot, which should make things interesting.
I’ll take Grabowski in an upset because why the hell not? He becomes the first person to submit Lewis in his professional career.
Prediction: Grabowski via second-round submission (Performance of the Night)
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alex Nicholson
Total career finishes: Nine technical (knockout), five submission
Don’t look now, but Cirkunov is one prospect to pay attention to in the Light Heavyweight class. The Canadian-based finishing machine has won five in-a-row (all first-round finishes), including his UFC debut, which was a knockout of Daniel Jolly.
Cirkunov, a southpaw, is athletically gifted as MMA fighters come. The 28-year-old boasts the speed to capitalize on even the smallest of mistakes and the strength to manhandle his foes in the clinch.
In short, Cirkunov is a man you don’t want to mess with. He has submissions that he employs with a vice-like grip, a solid kicking game, and wrestling that rounds his weaponry into form.
His opponent, “The Spartan,” is a crafty striker with a diverse and unpredictable set of punches and knees. Most of his fights are contested in the pocket, or the clinch, where Nicholson can usually be found hammering home knees.
Spinning back fists are another part of his wild stand-up game, but while he’s quite powerful and fast on the feet, it’s his balance and footwork, which usually fail him. Nicholson’s takedown defense is pretty porous and he often times loses the battle of will in the clinch.
The guy has previously fought at Heavyweight, which leads me to believe that this drop to 205 pounds for his UFC debut has been a long time coming.
It will be interesting to see who prevails in this highly volatile collision. My gut tells me Cirkunov will take this meeting, be it on the feet or ground.
Prediction: Cirkunov first-round technical knockout
Ovince Saint-Preux vs. Rafael Cavalcante
Total career finishes: 20 technical (knockout), six submission
Sparks will undoubtedly fly when these two tangle in the Octagon.
For “OSP,” it was an uneven year in 2015. Coming into his fight with former Pennsylvania State University wrestling standout Patrick Cummins at UFC on FOX 15, Saint Preux stepped up on short notice to face former Pride FC superstar Maurico “Shogun” Rua in a main event bout in Nov. 2014.
Saint-Preux passed that test with flying colors and went on to defeat “Durkin” handedly, before falling to former title challenger Glover Teixiera in August.
The Haitian-American’s striking is what typically grabs most folks’ attention. Saint-Preux’s athletic ability and reach help him cover a lot of ground with his jab and multitude of kicks. His power is also devastating, particularly in close quarters.
Some of Saint-Preux’s most impressive finishes have come when he’s been backed up toward the cage, or on the ground (i.e., his Von Flue choke submission win over Nikita Krylov).
However, as powerful as he is on the feet, his takedown defense is his most glaring weakness. Saint Preux was chewed up and spit out by All-American wrestler Ryan Bader and thoroughly controlled by Teixeira in his last outing at UFC Fight Night 73.
Good news for him: “Fejaio” doesn’t fancy himself a grappler. Cavalcante is a huge proponent of head hunting and is fairly patient when it comes to throwing strikes.
The Team Nogueira fighter doesn’t throw a whole lot of combinations. It’s maybe a jab, hook, or flying knee attack.
Cavalcante doesn’t target the body a whole lot, unless it’s in the clinch, where he managed to do some fine dirty work against Igor Pokrajac in his lone Octagon win. Then there was also his Strikeforce Light Heavyweight title win over Muhammed Lawal back in Aug. 2010.
But, every fighter has a weakness and for Cavalcante it’s also takedown defense.
The Brazilian bomber isn’t very good at getting back to his feet when put on his back by a superior grappler. Cavalcante has lost two outings to dominant wrestlers in Cummins and Bader, so to say he needs this one bad is an understatement.
Both men could use a victory in order to keep pace with the rest of the 205-pound division. Saint-Preux is a terror on the feet and as long as he doesn’t overextend on his shots too much, it should be easy picking for the former.
Prediction: Saint Preux via first-round technical knockout (Performance of the Night)
Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson
Total career finishes: 14 technical (knockout), two submission
It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen Hendricks grace the Octagon. The hard-nosed wrestler was unceremoniously hospitalized for a weight cut gone awry prior to UFC 192 where he was expected to face old rival Tyron Woodley.
Having fought just once in 2015, it’ll be imperative that he comes into this bout against a devastating striker like Thompson in tip-top shape. Hendricks has been managing his weight with the help of nutritionist Louis Giordano for the past few months.
It should make a world of a difference in what will be his 16th venture into the Octagon.
What we’ve seen out of Hendricks in his last few fights is an unstoppable wrestler. Hendricks has an excellent shot, but he can also nab the takedown from inside the clinch, be it through a slam or trip.
Hendricks is even more dangerous when he sets up his takedowns with his boxing combinations. We’ve all seen what kind of an impact his left hand can make in a fight.
Unfortunately, it seems like the All-American from Oklahoma State University has abandoned it, whether you like it or not.
With that being said, Hendricks is susceptible to good counter-striking and he’ll typically throw himself into harm’s way because of his significantly short reach.
For Thompson, the owner of a six-inch reach advantage heading into this rodeo, it’s music to his ears. The undefeated kickboxing sensation boasts some of the most lethal spinning attacks around.
Thompson isn’t too shabby at closing the distance either with his hands when he has you hurt, which Robert Whittaker and Chris Clements learned the hard way.
Mobility is another large part of Thompson’s Octagon repertoire as he’s very rarely cornered, which will be crucial in defending the takedowns of Hendricks. He also does a good job of circling away from his opponent’s power side.
Looking at the tale of the tape, it would seem like your average striker versus grappler match-up, but Thompson’s guard is an underrated aspect of his weaponry. The 32-year-old will look for submissions off of his back and he showcased his grappling ability in a knockout win over Jake Ellenberger back in July.
Hendricks’ safest route to victory is to make the fight ugly and win by utilizing his grinding approach. His takedowns are almost impossible to defend once he has his hands clasped around your waist.
Thompson will more than likely get taken down once or twice, and while I would’ve taken Hendricks in a three-round affair based off their skills on paper, I’m drawn to take the former in a 25-minute main event.
This is going to be a good one.
Prediction: Stephen Thompson via split-decision (Fight of the Night)
That’s it for bonus predictions. I hope you enjoyed the read.
Enjoy the fights, maniacs!
For more UFC Fight Night 82 news and notes, including up-to-the-minute live results and play-by-play, click here and here.