Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight grapplers Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Sept. 7, 2024) at UFC Vegas 97 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
At 38 years of age, Burns enters his latest main event slot in a difficult position. Riding a two-fight losing streak at that age is never great, but “Durinho” does deserve some context: he injured his shoulder almost immediately against the current champion (details here), and he was just about 90 seconds from defeating Jack Della Maddalena — another excellent fighter! — until ducking into a nasty knee (watch highlights).
Clearly, Burns still has something left in the tank.
As for Brady, he was unfairly written off for losing to Belal Muhammad. That loss isn’t looking so bad with hindsight, and he already looked very dominant in his first bounce-back performance. Victory here could raise Brady into the Top 5 and confirm that he’s an active title threat at this stage of his career.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25604267/1827494980.jpg)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Burns vs. Brady Betting Odds
- Gilbert Burns victory: -180
- Gilbert Burns via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Gilbert Burns via submission: +800
- Gilbert Burns via decision: +500
- Sean Brady victory: +150
- Sean Brady via TKO/KO/DQ: +275
- Sean Brady via submission: +1000
- Sean Brady via decision: +150
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Burns Wins
Burns has developed from rising jiu-jitsu specialist into well-rounded veteran over the years. The Brazilian is still excellent on the canvas, but he pairs those grappling skills with powerful overhands, heavy calf kicks, and a very physical wrestling game.
This is a really interesting match up in that it’s hard to see who holds which advantages. On paper, Burns is the better grappler, but Brady might have a slight wrestling edge. Conversely, Burns definitely hits harder, which is somewhat neutralized by Brady’s crisper boxing and sharp counters.
The most definitive advantage for Burns I can see in the match up is comfort in a firefight. The only real time that Brady was forced into a scrappy fight was against Muhammad, and Brady fell apart in the second round. Burns, for better or worse, has slugged it out with a who’s who of the Welterweight division.
He doesn’t always win, but he certainly doesn’t break. If Burns can push a high pace, get both himself and Brady fatigued, then start winging heavy punches, it probably works out well for the veteran.
How Brady Wins
Brady is a highly skilled fighter. His transitional wrestling and grappling are beautiful to watch, and he’s often able to shut down very skilled fighters with his top game. His boxing is genuinely quite nice too, a nice mix of smart combinations and well-timed counters.
I think a two-pronged attack would be best for Brady here. He should definitely test the defensive wrestling of Burns. It’s been a long time since Burns was really held down to a loss (Sept. 2016 vs. Michel Prazeres to be specific), but Brady is an expert in that realm. He just might be able to drag Burns to the floor and hold him there, particularly since Burns is 38 and has suffered several injuries in recent years.
The other area where Brady can find success is on the counter, utilizing his footwork and speed to punish Burns’ straightforward offense. If he picks and chooses when to exchange, Brady should be able to manage his own pace while still landing the better shots.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25604301/1435628353.jpg)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Burns vs. Brady Prediction
As with “Cannonier vs. Borralho” a couple weeks ago, we’re looking at a fight where the odds would be swapped 12 or 24 months ago.
Context be damned, it’s hard to argue for 38 years old and two straight defeats against a Top 10 ranked talent in his prime. Brady isn’t a perfect fighter, but he’s excellent at what he does and knows how to follow a gameplan. The only question is if Burns can replicate the Muhammad strategy of relentless pressure to force him into making mistakes.
There’s a simple reason I think he cannot: defense. Muhammad is a better defensive fighter than Burns, and he still walked through a lot of clean shots in the first round. I expect those same punches to stun Burns and convince him to ease off on the pressure, at which point, there’s no reason for Brady to fall apart.
Crisp counter punches and the occasional takedown lead Brady to a decision victory.
Prediction: Brady via decision (+150)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 97 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 97: “Burns vs. Brady” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.