UFC Heavyweight bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
Odds: (-400 Velasquez / +300 Silva )
Betting Pick: Velasquez
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In the semi-main event, former UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will look to rebound from his crushing loss to Junior dos Santos against former Strikeforce Heavyweight king Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. While both of these guys are coming off disappoint losses, with Silva having dropped his last fight against Strikeforce GP winner Daniel Cormier, there is no doubt that they are both world class Heavyweights with dangerous skill sets. Both of these guys are quite versatile, with dangerous striking power and solid ground games. They are dissimilar, though, in that Silva relies on big shots, smothering ground control, and effective submissions while keeping a relatively plodding pace. Velasquez, on the other hand, relies on superior speed and an aggressive pace, which his cardio conditioning allows him to keep up for as long as he needs to. This is Silva’s first trip to the big show, and with more Strikeforce Heavyweights bound to be debuting soon, this is going to be a very crowded division at the top. With that in mind, a win here is absolutely necessary for both guys if they want to maintain a spot in the division’s upper echelon.
Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva was one of Strikeforce’s premier Heavyweights for years, and he will now attempt to parlay that success into the UFC. Silva is a very impressive physical specimen, with great height, reach, and bulk. Technically he is just as impressive, with very heavy hands to go along with a smothering wrestling and top control game. His boxing technique is not overly fast, but it is technically sound and his punches pack a wallop. In addition, Silva is a notoriously tough fighter who has fought good competition and only been finished twice as a professional. His ability to rearrange opponents’ facial features with punches, take them down effectively, and wear them out with top control and thudding ground and pound make him an extremely tough nut to crack. The only real holes in his game are his chin, which can be exploited by very powerful strikers capable of preventing takedowns and beating him to the punch, and his relative heaviness on his feet, which makes him slightly immobile. Against Velasquez, who is brutally fast and a very accomplished wrestler, both of those could be quite problematic for him.
Cain Velasquez, who just relinquished his UFC Heavyweight title to Junior dos Santos, is nevertheless one of UFC’s most dynamic and explosive Heavyweights. A former NCAA All-American, Velasquez is clearly an accomplished wrestler, but he also has devastating striking to back up his grappling prowess. As good a wrestler as he is, Velasquez tends to prefer to rely on his standup, which is extremely formidable. He has arguably the fastest hands in the Heavyweight division and is a supremely conditioned athlete, which allows him to maintain a breakneck pace from bell to bell. Junior dos Santos showed in their last fight that his chin can be exploited, and Silva does have powerful punching, but one loss to the best Heavyweight striker in the world is not enough for me to say that he has a glass jaw. Still, Silva has knockout power in both hands and is adept at controlling opponents from top position, so Velasquez is going to have to be careful not to give anything away here if he wants to avoid a second consecutive loss.
Stylistically, I think this matchup heavily favors Velasquez. Both of these guys have knockout power, good wrestling, and effective ground control, but I think Cain’s vastly superior hand speed is going to be the difference-maker here. Their wrestling should cancel each other out, and both guys are generally content to stand and trade. I think Cain will routinely beat Silva to the punch, though, and when you have two guys who can both be knocked out and can both throw knockout punches, that will make all the difference. Velasquez by T/KO in the later rounds.
Prediction: Cain Velasquez by third round T/KO.
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