Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr staff picks and predictions

Check out Bloody Elbow’s staff picks and predictions for Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

I’ll spare you the drama and just flat out say that none of us believes Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is going to beat Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night. But will it be a finish or a decision win? Fraser Coffeen and myself are going with a Canelo points win, while Ram Gilboa sees Canelo giving Chavez Jr. his second stoppage loss in his last four fights.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (164.5 lbs catchweight)

Mookie Alexander: “Which JCC Jr. will show up?” is not a game I like to play. Same thing with “motivated B.J. Penn” or Melvin Guillard’s entire UFC career. A good chunk of the intrigue here is the size advantage that Chavez Jr. will have and how Canelo will cope with a fighter who has spent recent years competing at super middleweight, or really any weight he felt like coming in regardless of what the contract stipulated. Skill-for-skill, I don’t think Chavez Jr. is in Canelo’s league. Not to say that Julio is a bad boxer, but I’ve never been wowed by his craft. It might be competitive for a few rounds but Canelo is going to pull away and his lethal body shots will surely take a toll on JCC Jr. He’s going to be faster, he’s going to be more accurate, but I don’t see Canelo actually getting a finish. The only time Chavez Jr. has been finished was against Andrzej Fonfara in a fight where he got knocked down, quit on his stool, then said he was winning (he wasn’t). It’s very possible that Canelo’s power doesn’t translate as well going up to 164.5, so with that in mind, I have Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision.

Fraser Coffeen: This is from my full fight Breakdown – check that out for more thoughts: “It’s tempting to just write Canelo by decision here and be done with it. But there’s reason to pause. Yes, Canelo is the more technically skilled fighter – there’s really no question about that, even though many feel Canelo’s technical acumen has been overrated at times. He will be the faster man in there, not because Canelo is particularly fast, but because Chavez is often particularly slow. Chavez is certainly a durable fighter – only the large Andrzej Fonfara has put him away – so it’s very easy to envision Canelo sticking and moving, using technique to work the outside, land his trademark hooks to the body, and point his way to a lopsided win. And yes, that very well might happen. But there’s no overlooking the fact that Chavez will be significantly bigger and significantly stronger. Against Sergio Martinez, he showed that you can never write him off – it took a heroic effort from Martinez to not fall victim to a 12th round Hail Mary KO in that fight. That said, that fight was nearly 5 years ago. The word from the Chavez camp is that he is driven and in shape for this fight. Maybe that will be true. But even if it is, Chavez has never been a real gas tank sort of fighter. As we get deeper in the fight, he will tire faster than Canelo. Canelo will need to stay awake, but he’s a smart enough fighter to do just that. Look for Canelo to outbox Chavez most of the way, but for Chavez to have a few dramatic shots in the fight that make it interesting. Interesting enough for a rematch? It’s boxing, so the bar is low. Look for Canelo vs. Chavez II this fall.” Canelo Alvarez, Decision

Ram Gilboa: Chavez Jr. is a very good offensive fighter going forward, but unless his new trainer completely rewired him – and in a reportedly less than perfect training camp – that’s simply a bad game-plan against Canelo Alvarez. Canelo has the counterpunching and just enough movement to avoid getting run over, or the ropes, and pick Chavez Jr. apart in the process. Some places you grow up redhead, you grow up learning how to fight. Canelo finds his problems in movers, guys who neutralize retaliation, not in bangers – And I don’t see Chavez Jr’s size mattering much in this. Unless – combined with the size of this fight in Mexico – I wonder if Canelo’s ego will keep him planted down for a punch too much. He’ll might get dropped, but he’ll get back up and win it, I think by stoppage. Canelo Alvarez, TKO, Round 10

Staff picking Canelo: Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Tim
Staff picking JCC:
Staff picking draw:

Check out Bloody Elbow’s staff picks and predictions for Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

I’ll spare you the drama and just flat out say that none of us believes Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is going to beat Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night. But will it be a finish or a decision win? Fraser Coffeen and myself are going with a Canelo points win, while Ram Gilboa sees Canelo giving Chavez Jr. his second stoppage loss in his last four fights.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (164.5 lbs catchweight)

Mookie Alexander: “Which JCC Jr. will show up?” is not a game I like to play. Same thing with “motivated B.J. Penn” or Melvin Guillard’s entire UFC career. A good chunk of the intrigue here is the size advantage that Chavez Jr. will have and how Canelo will cope with a fighter who has spent recent years competing at super middleweight, or really any weight he felt like coming in regardless of what the contract stipulated. Skill-for-skill, I don’t think Chavez Jr. is in Canelo’s league. Not to say that Julio is a bad boxer, but I’ve never been wowed by his craft. It might be competitive for a few rounds but Canelo is going to pull away and his lethal body shots will surely take a toll on JCC Jr. He’s going to be faster, he’s going to be more accurate, but I don’t see Canelo actually getting a finish. The only time Chavez Jr. has been finished was against Andrzej Fonfara in a fight where he got knocked down, quit on his stool, then said he was winning (he wasn’t). It’s very possible that Canelo’s power doesn’t translate as well going up to 164.5, so with that in mind, I have Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision.

Fraser Coffeen: This is from my full fight Breakdown – check that out for more thoughts: “It’s tempting to just write Canelo by decision here and be done with it. But there’s reason to pause. Yes, Canelo is the more technically skilled fighter – there’s really no question about that, even though many feel Canelo’s technical acumen has been overrated at times. He will be the faster man in there, not because Canelo is particularly fast, but because Chavez is often particularly slow. Chavez is certainly a durable fighter – only the large Andrzej Fonfara has put him away – so it’s very easy to envision Canelo sticking and moving, using technique to work the outside, land his trademark hooks to the body, and point his way to a lopsided win. And yes, that very well might happen. But there’s no overlooking the fact that Chavez will be significantly bigger and significantly stronger. Against Sergio Martinez, he showed that you can never write him off – it took a heroic effort from Martinez to not fall victim to a 12th round Hail Mary KO in that fight. That said, that fight was nearly 5 years ago. The word from the Chavez camp is that he is driven and in shape for this fight. Maybe that will be true. But even if it is, Chavez has never been a real gas tank sort of fighter. As we get deeper in the fight, he will tire faster than Canelo. Canelo will need to stay awake, but he’s a smart enough fighter to do just that. Look for Canelo to outbox Chavez most of the way, but for Chavez to have a few dramatic shots in the fight that make it interesting. Interesting enough for a rematch? It’s boxing, so the bar is low. Look for Canelo vs. Chavez II this fall.” Canelo Alvarez, Decision

Ram Gilboa: Chavez Jr. is a very good offensive fighter going forward, but unless his new trainer completely rewired him – and in a reportedly less than perfect training camp – that’s simply a bad game-plan against Canelo Alvarez. Canelo has the counterpunching and just enough movement to avoid getting run over, or the ropes, and pick Chavez Jr. apart in the process. Some places you grow up redhead, you grow up learning how to fight. Canelo finds his problems in movers, guys who neutralize retaliation, not in bangers – And I don’t see Chavez Jr’s size mattering much in this. Unless – combined with the size of this fight in Mexico – I wonder if Canelo’s ego will keep him planted down for a punch too much. He’ll might get dropped, but he’ll get back up and win it, I think by stoppage. Canelo Alvarez, TKO, Round 10

Staff picking Canelo: Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Tim
Staff picking JCC:
Staff picking draw: