Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho will square off TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024) at UFC Vegas 96 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Will we see a changing of the guard moment in tonight’s main event? At 40 years of age, it’s frankly remarkable how fit and dangerous Cannonier remains. He was in spitting distance of a title shot just a couple months ago given his fairly recent win over Sean Strickland, but a controversial loss to Nassourdine Imavov ruined those plans. Conversely, Borralho is riding a six-fight win streak into this major opportunity. At 31 years of age, Borralho is a fresh face in the Middleweight mix, and this is his opportunity to solidify himself as a genuine title threat.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Cannonier vs. Borralho Betting Odds
- Jared Cannonier victory: +205
- Jared Cannonier via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Jared Cannonier via submission: +2200
- Jared Cannonier via decision: +550
- Caio Borralho victory: -250
- Caio Borralho via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
- Caio Borralho via submission: +300
- Caio Borralho via decision: +165
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Cannonier Wins
Cannonier is one of the better sprawl-and-brawl fighters at Middleweight. The former Heavyweight is known for his agility and movement, which go a long way in lining up massive power punch connections.
Avoiding the takedown is the name of the game here. Borralho is an excellent grappler and reasonably good kickboxer, but he doesn’t have the power or fluidity of Cannonier. If Cannonier can force a striking match, he should hold an advantage on the feet.
I’d like to see patient pressure from “Killa Gorilla.” Borralho is quite good at reactive shots, but Cannonier has the range and stand up skill to track him down without over-reaching in the process. Feints and false starts will help here, but Cannonier should also be looking to capitalize on Borralho’s movement-based style. If he can show punches and then kick the trail leg of his moving opponent, it’ll help slow the Brazilian down.
A more stationary Borralho will be forced into the pocket with Cannonier … and he won’t fare well there.
How Borralho Wins
Borralho is a well-rounded and tactical Middleweight contender. He uses good movement, strong kicks, and accurate counter punches to control the flow of the fight on the feet, but it’s on the mat where the Brazilian tends to really dominate.
One way or another, Borralho has to drag Cannonier to the floor. Historically, that’s a difficult task, but circumstances have changed a bit. First and foremost, we just saw Cannonier fatigue from wrestling with Imavov. Secondly, the fight was put together on fairly short-notice and Cannonier just fought in June, meaning he hasn’t been given a full camp to prepare.
Borralho cannot exhaust himself in the process, but extended wrestling exchanges seem likely to fatigue his 40-year-old foe. It might benefit Borralho to wrestle hard early, and then when the two break apart, he’ll be dealing with a slower and less dangerous Cannonier. In that case, he can likely strike with Cannonier just fine and use his movement to maintain an edge in volume.
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Cannonier vs. Borralho Prediction
Three months ago, I pick Cannonier without a second thought. The match up definitely favors him stylistically. Borralho’s kickboxing can be frustrating, but he’s much less dangerous on the feet than Cannonier, who has yet to be held down and controlled to a lose at 185 lbs.
The problem is that Imavov fight. Cannonier slowed down in a way I had never seen at Middleweight. This is a five-round fight versus a well-conditioned and talented up-and-comer nearly a decade younger. Barring an early knockout win, Cannonier cannot afford to fatigue.
The question is this: am I overreacting to the Imavov performance or is Cannonier genuinely on his way out? It wasn’t that long ago that Cannonier pulverized Marvin Vettori in a career-best performance, after all. I’d pick that Cannonier over every Borralho I’ve seen so far.
Ultimately, it’s hard to argue with momentum. Borralho is entering his prime and riding an excellent win streak, whereas Cannonier is trying to avoid tumbling down the ladder. I expect Borralho to remain a player at 185-pounds for years to come, and that starts tonight.
Prediction: Borralho via decision (+165)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 96 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ESPN+).
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