UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Shogun Rua vs. Chael Sonnen
Odds: ( +115 Rua / -145 Sonnen )
Betting Pick: Sonnen
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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 26, former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will square off against loud-mouthed grappler Chael Sonnen in a featured 205 pound bout. Shogun has lost a step from his prime, but is still one of the most dangerous and aggressive strikers in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Sonnen, fighting at Light Heavyweight after a move back up from 185 pounds, is best known for his trash talk and press conference antics, but is nevertheless one of the most effective and dominant wrestlers in the sport. This is an old-school striker versus grappler matchup, and it will be interesting to see whether Sonnen has what it takes to plant the bigger, heavier Rua on his back.
During his PRIDE heyday, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was one of the most frighteningly effective strikers the sport has ever seen. His incredible technique, ability to hurt opponents with all four limbs, and ruthless aggression made him one of the sport’s biggest stars. Since coming to the UFC, he hasn’t enjoyed the same world-beating success, but he is nevertheless a dangerously competent striker who has the ability to finish any fighter he faces. Rua has great punches, effective kicks, and a devastating clinch game rivaled only by former Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Rua’s ground game has always been severely underrated, but he definitely doesn’t want to spend much time on his back underneath Sonnen, who has made a career out of controlling opponents from top position. On the feet, this fight is not even a contest, and Shogun will destroy Sonnen in routine fashion. All he has to do is keep this fight upright and he will leave a winner.
Chael Sonnen became a star largely due to his over-the-top pro wrestling-style trash talk, but anyone who thinks he can’t back it up in the Octagon hasn’t been watching MMA for long. Sonnen is arguably the sport’s most effective wrestler outside of Welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre, and basically no one he has ever fought has found a way to keep him from securing takedowns. Sonnen’s boxing is actually much underrated, but there’s no question that he thrives when he can take opponents down and pummel them from top position. Securing takedowns isn’t a guaranteed win against a grappler of Rua’s ability, because submission defense has always been Sonnen’s achilles heel. Still, he has an infinitely better chance of winning this fight from top position than he does engaged in a standup war with Shogun.
This is a tough fight to call. If it plays out on the feet, there is no doubt that Shogun will dominate Sonnen thoroughly with superior technique, power, speed, and accuracy. Even if Sonnen can get Shogun down, he is going to have to spend five rounds defending triangle chokes and armbars, something that proved his undoing in his first meeting with Anderson Silva. Still, though, I think Sonnen is an excellent underdog pick here. Rua is an effective grappler, but he’s not as good off his back as Silva is. I think that Rua’s aggression is going to be his undoing. If he presses the issue too hard, he is leaving himself vulnerable to Sonnen’s takedowns. I think Rua will get his shots in, but Sonnen should be able to control position for enough of this fight to earn the unanimous decision .
Prediction: Chael Sonnen by Decision.
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