Covington Vs. Buckley Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight contenders Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley will collide TONIGHT (Sat., Dec. 14, 2024) at UFC Tampa from Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

Covington enters this fight in a fairly dire position. “Chaos” embarrassed himself in his last fight, failing to even remotely push Leon Edwards in his woefully undeserved title shot. At 36 years of age, Covington has an opportunity here to make up for that performance and re-assert himself into the title picture.

For years, Buckley was the smaller man at Middleweight, which resulted in inconsistent results. Since dropping down to his proper weight class, however, he’s undefeated and has quickly advanced into the Top 10. “New Mansa” is gaining serious momentum, and he could end up an unlikely threat to the title with a win this weekend.

Let’s take a closer look at UFC Tampa’s betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Covington vs. Buckley Betting Odds

• Colby Covington victory: +225
• Colby Covington via TKO/KO/DQ: +1400
• Colby Covington via submission: +2200
• Colby Covington via decision: +330
• Joaquin Buckley victory: -278
• Joaquin Buckley via TKO/KO/DQ: +140
• Joaquin Buckley via submission: +2000
• Joaquin Buckley via decision: +165
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Covington Wins

At his peak, Covington was an absolutely elite grinder. An All-American wrestler with top-notch takedown chaining, Covington paired his wrestling attack with a nonstop stream of offense on the feet. It was never the most technical, but the combination proved very effective.

Here’s the tricky thing with this match up: Covington has a great style to defeat Buckley. He also had a great style to give Leon Edwards trouble and then completely moved away from it. It’s impossible to have any faith in Covington’s wrestling, because who knows if he’ll even try that hard to wrestle? One has to assume that moving away from wrestling is a consequence of age, as it only grows harder for the body to shoot takedowns relentless as the years wear on.

If — and that’s a big if — Covington can chain wrestle like he once did, that’s the obvious path to victory. Buckley is a fighter who relies on explosions to escape grappling positions, but that becomes less effective over time. Covington has shown in the past an ability to stick to opponents like glue, which would wear “New Mansa” down quickly.

How Buckley Wins

Speed and power are the name of Buckley’s game. “New Mansa” actually uses some interesting tactics to advance forward from an angle and makes an effort to use body-head combinations better than many shorter fighters, but it’s still that raw explosiveness that make him a special talent.

Man, Buckley will rip Covington apart if the two exchange in the pocket even a bit. The trick will be getting there without giving up easy takedowns in the process. If Buckley leaps into a massive left hook, even a washed Covington could likely duck beneath and floor him.

Fortunately, Buckley already likes building combinations by hitting the body first. Taking angles will help him avoid the reactive shot as well. Generally, Buckley is well setup to avoid takedowns, he just has to manage his commitment levels. An extra focus on false starts could help disguise his biggest swings, and I’d also like to see Buckley using his speed to do damage from the outside. Covington is a rare opponent that Buckley could likely get some jabs and calf kicks off on, which could also help disguise that blitz.

If and when Buckley is floored, he has to really focus on the hand fight and avoid giving up his back. Pulling Covington up into the clinch is the goal, where Buckley’s strength and stature should prove an advantage in denying takedowns.

Covington vs. Buckley Prediction

A year ago, I probably would have backed Covington. When he’s on his game, he really is an exceptional fighter who can drag almost anyone into his preferred kind of grueling war of attrition. At 36 years of age coming off a truly bad performance, however, it’s hard to have any such confidence.

Fighting is a game of momentum and confidence more often than not. Buckley is the young man rising, and he hits hard enough to fell a horse. Covington, shaky with rust after a year away, is unlikely to avoid all the fire coming his way, and he’s likely to be surprised by Buckley’s physicality in the early going.

Prediction: Buckley via knockout (+140)

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