Dariush Vs. Moicano Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC Fight Night: Dariush v Tsarukyan — Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight veterans Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano will go to war this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) at UFC 311 from Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

2023 was a rough year for Dariush. The best win streak of his career went up in smoke in just four minutes against Charles Oliveira, then Arman Tsarukyan stopped him in just 64 seconds a few months later. Forced to start from scratch once again, Dariush took a year to recover from the losses and returns in a must-win situation.

Moicano, conversely, is on a hot streak. The former Featherweight contender has established himself as a real force at 155-pounds, picking up four straight wins with a trio of stoppages. He came through as the underdog several times to regain momentum, and this could be a huge moment for him.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Dariush vs. Moicano Betting Odds

Beneil Dariush victory: +170
Beneil Dariush via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Beneil Dariush via submission: TBD
Beneil Dariush via decision: TBD
Renato Moicano victory: -205
Renato Moicano via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Renato Moicano via submission: TBD
Renato Moicano via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Dariush Wins

For a moment, a fair amount of fight fans were excited at the prospect of Islam Makhachev vs. Dariush. The Southpaw is a great counter wrestler with tremendous jiu-jitsu, as well as punishing kickboxing. His great flaws are more physical than technical, as Dariush has never been the most durable contender.

At the highest level, that tends to matter a lot.

This is a very reasonable style match up for Dariush. Moicano is a good striker with a lovely jab, but he’s not really a knockout artist. Dariush should be able to stand up to his shots, and he’s the more explosive striker between the two. When Dariush gets his left side offense — the left overhand, left kick, and left knee make up the bulk of his attack — flowing, he’s really difficult to handle.

Moicano isn’t immune to damage himself. If Dariush starts fast and finds a home for his left hand early, he could return to the win column is great style.

How Moicano Wins

Moicano is an absolute gamer. The jiu-jitsu ace has an excellent jab and powerful kicks, as well as a really solid clinch wrestling attack. Perhaps above all else, he’s proven to be a real gamer, willing to work through punishment and outlast his opposition.

If Dariush is still at his most dangerous, outlasting him is Moicano’s best bet. As mentioned, Dariush has always struggled a bit with physicality. Moicano has the skills to (relatively) match him in all areas, which means he can force a high pace without getting absolutely melted in the process (hopefully).

I’d like to see Moicano jabbing forward and blasting power kicks. He should be trying to build combinations and finish with takedown attempts. Even if they’re difficult to finish, the goal should be a rough-and-tumble fight that wears on the Dariush gas tank. Over time, he’s likely to start landing more right hands or take downs if and when Dariush begins to slow.

Dariush vs. Moicano Prediction

The style match up here seems to favor Dariush, especially over three rounds. Moicano likely doesn’t have the explosive shot necessary to drag him down to the floor, and Dariush is the more explosive striker by a fair margin. A couple years ago, this is a really easy pick.

Nowadays? It’s a little more complicated. Dariush is 35 years old coming off consecutive knockout losses over a year ago, whereas Moicano is fighting actively and beating really good competition. Moicano may be 35 himself, but momentum and confidence really matter in this sport. The Brazilian is riding high, and it feels like he has what it takes to grit through some tough moments and impose his will on a fighter on his way out of the Top 10.

Prediction: Moicano via decision