UFC Welterweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Odds: (+130 Maia /-160 Kim )
Betting Pick: Kim
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In a featured Welterweight matchup, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Demian Maia makes his 170 pound debut against well-rounded Korean Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim. Maia is without a doubt one of the UFC’s most prolific submission grapplers, but the once-beaten Kim is a dangerous all-around fighter with very few exploitable weaknesses. Maia has shown a tendency to struggle against guys that he can’t physically control and take down, and in that regard Kim is going to present a number of challenges for him. It also remains to be seen whether Maia’s weight cut will put him in a more natural place or if it is an over-reaction to recent mixed results in the Middleweight division.
Demian Maia’s jiu-jitsu skills are beyond question. From every position on the ground, he is a constant threat to finish fights, and his standup game has continued to evolve. It is unlikely he will ever be a dangerous striker, but his technique has continually improved so that he isn’t lost on his feet and can stand and trade long enough to try and intelligently set up his takedowns. What has really held Maia back from translating his jiu-jitsu skills into success at the highest levels of the UFC is his lack of dominant wrestling. A guy who depends so much on finishing opponents on the ground needs an effective way to force fights down, and Maia hasn’t really shown that up to this point. Against Kim, who has solid wrestling and great judo, it is likely that those struggles will continue, so he is going to have to fight very smart to find an opening to exploit.
Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim is a rising star in the Welterweight division with a very impressive 15-1-1 professional record. His only loss came in a recent fight against Interim Welterweight champion Carlos Condit, where he was caught by a flying knee and put away with strikes. Kim is a very solid wrestler with good shoot takedowns and great judo-style throws from the clinch. His boxing is also very effective and he has a decent amount of punching power to go along with his technique. Against Maia, I think he will enjoy a sizable advantage on the feet and his superior wrestling and clinch game should allow him to dictate where the fight plays out. The most important thing for Kim is not to get foolhardy and try to take Maia down, playing into his strengths. Kim does have great submission defense, but against Maia trying to fight on the ground is playing with fire no matter how good you are.
I think this is going to be a rough entry to the Welterweight division for Maia. He is notorious for struggling against anyone who can outwrestle him or who he can’t easily get to the ground, and I don’t see a way for him to consistently force Kim to the mat. I think Kim should be able to use his wrestling and clinch game defensively to keep this fight standing, where he has more than enough to outpoint Maia for a relatively one-sided decision victory.
Prediction: Dong Hyun Kim by Unanimous Decision.
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