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The Bloody Elbow staff (with a cameo from Bad Left Hook) makes predictions for Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury 2.
The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for Saturday’s mega fight between WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) and lineal champion Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs). It’s a 50-50 fight on paper but the BE team leaned towards Wilder getting his hand raised. With that said, our colleagues at Bad Left Hook did their own staff picks, of which I’ve taken some excerpts for this post, and their staff is leaning Fury.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury
Mookie Alexander: The thing with Fury is that trying to outbox Wilder to a decision almost worked! He should’ve won that damn fight even WITH the two knockdowns. But I also don’t think this is something he can replicate, and I don’t think he wants to replicate it. Now for those expecting some absolute brawl, I think you’ll be disappointed because that’s just not how they roll. Wilder, for all of his devastating knockouts, fights at a very pedestrian pace and is not a high-volume guy. He jabs quite well but largely uses it for the right hand, which is his money punch. Fury has greater depth to his boxing both offensively and defensively, but nowhere near the offensive firepower. Tyson will not throw home run shots and get into fiery exchanges if he doesn’t have to. This is going to be quite strategic in the sense that I don’t think Wilder’s game is particularly complicated, it just works so remarkably well. His power is a total game-changer, such that losing rounds is not really a thing he worries about. Against Fury, that nearly led to his first L, but while I am confident that Tyson’s going to outbox him much of the way and make Deontay miss a lot with that effective head movement and lightning quick reglexes, I am less confident that he’ll survive a bomb from Wilder that puts him on his ass. I picked Fury the first time but now I’m going with Deontay Wilder by TKO, round 9.
Ram Gilboa: It’s a pretty good rule of the thumb and has been reasonably historically established, that the more technical, mobile fighter of the two, wins the rematch of a closely contested fight, with a top shelf crafty brawler. E.g. B. Leonard v Tendler, Ray Leonard v Duran, Gatti v M. Ward, Ward v Kovalev. (Counterpoint: Ray Robinson-LaMotta – but Robinson won fights III-V which rarely occur these days). Maybe it’s that the learning process of 10+ rounds together that cater to the scientific scholar; or maybe it is that now the more pure boxer of the two has tasted the power and durability of the other guy, he figures he’s done enough proving, and goes back to using his relatively safe, relative advantage.
I know Fury has dreamed of KOing Wilder in 2, and says he’ll do just that, but that’s talk. Fury is one those guys who uses the talk outside the ring (and inside of it) to establish his presence in the fight, and in his opponents head. I think now Fury really knows Wilder’s power – how close he was to being counted out that last time – so I think he’ll come out punching a bit and then moving a lot. Spending a lot of time dancing his awkward tall guy dance, jabbing and jabbering all along. I also believe it’ll work to such a degree – Wilder’s missing a lot, not looking good – that the champ will get frustrated and tired, and then lose some of his confidence which will in turn get him even more tired, and then Tyson Fury by TKO, round 11.
Phil Mackenzie: The most surprising thing about their last fight wasn’t the knockdown, or the recovery, but that it was so competitive as a scoring affair. No, I’m not saying that the draw was warranted, but few of the rounds ended up being shut-outs. Fury’s approach of staying two or three strikes ahead while juking and jiving away from his opponents entries played well with an aging, footslow Klitschko who was frustrated at his inability to land a jab (and would probably work reasonably well against Joshua, for that matter), but Wilder was happier to miss because his jab isn’t often used for anything other than a right hand setup anyway. Wilder just feels like he has less adjustments to make: he can go to the body, he can double jab, he can feint the 1,2 into the left hook earlier than he did last time. Not only does he seem more likely to finish but there’s actually a chance of him winning a decision. That is actually fairly shocking to me. Deontay Wilder by TKO, round 3.
Complete Bad Left Hook staff predictions
Scott Christ (BLH): Fury is good at negating opponents; we saw that against Wladimir Klitschko, which was a masterclass in its way, but not exactly the sweetest example of the science, and we saw it against Wilder. But I think Wilder and his team are well aware of what not to let Fury do if they can help it this time around. I also tend to think Wilder is a smarter and better-prepared fighter than he’s often given credit for being. And I believe that “Alabama Slamma” of a right hand will find its mark and get the job done this time. But the bottom line is you can’t ask for a lot more than this as a boxing fan. For once, we have the sort of fight everyone wants to see, and it’s the sort of fight that too often just does not get made. Deontay Wilder KO-9
Lewis Watson (BLH): Fury’s change in trainer does concern me. Despite a lack of experience swimming in boxing’s deepest waters, Ben Davison helped Fury battle his biggest demons. A happy fighter is a healthy fighter; a change in dynamic and an absence of genuine trust may discolour the perfect cocktail that Fury and Davison created at a specific point in the “Gypsy King’s” career. An increase in discipline from Sugar Hill may see Fury’s reliable and superior boxing instincts restricted.
I’m not sure I am buying this desire from Fury to get the KO. He survived 12 rounds against Wilder when he was still clambering to his feet – physically and metaphorically – and he knows that a fully-fit, fully-concentrated self can ride the storm for another 12 rounds this Saturday without needing to take unnecessary risks.
You know what you’re going to get from Wilder. Fury, less so. His improvements are what this rematch hinges on. Unfortunately, I think we are in for a bit of a stinker. Wilder may get through the guard in the championship rounds, but Fury’s fight management will be a lot tighter and sensible this time around. 117-111 Fury, if you want specifics. Tyson Fury UD-12
Wil Esco (BLH): The Kronk gym is obviously legendary in the sport, but I believe their fundamental teaching philosophy is much more adhered to sharp boxing than teaching fighters to be knockout artists. You can really see that in their fighters’ styles. And before any of you get all up in arms, referencing the likes of Tommy Hearns or Wladimir Klitschko, note that those two were naturally gifted punchers who learned sound technique at Kronk in order to land their power rather than the other way around. Fury is not a naturally gifted puncher, and he’s not going to become one under Hill. In this rematch I think Occam’s razor applies. If Fury knows he can fairly easily outbox Wilder, why expect him to rumble when that plays into Wilder’s hands? I certainly don’t, and think Fury will end up with the result he probably deserved the first time around. But knowing how this sport can be, I’ll say it’s closer on the cards than it will be in the fight. Fury MD-12
Staff picking Wilder: Ed, Dayne, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Scott (BLH)
Staff picking Fury: Badar, Ram, Lewis (BLH), Wil (BLH)
Staff picking draw: