Dern Vs. Ribas 2 Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Strawweight rivals Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas will rematch TONIGHT (Sat., Jan. 11, 2025) at UFC Vegas 101 from UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Dern’s status as a contender is complicated. She’s definitely improved over the years, but the same issues simultaneously continue to weigh her down and cost her important fights. She definitely has the talent to fight for the belt, yet producing consistent Top 10 wins remains a struggle. Ribas is in a similar situation, and she adds in the complication of frequently bouncing between weight classes. That’s a tough way to build momentum even if winning consistently. After losing consecutive Flyweight fights, perhaps she’s now been convinced to stay at 115-pounds for good. Either way, the victor of this main event match up will be in decent position to build towards a title shot in 2025.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Dern vs. Ribas 2 Betting Odds

Mackenzie Dern victory: +180
Mackenzie Dern via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
Mackenzie Dern via submission: +450
Mackenzie Dern via decision: +450
Amanda Ribas victory: -218
Amanda Ribas via TKO/KO/DQ: +600
Amanda Ribas via submission: +1000
Amanda Ribas via decision: +115
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Dern Wins

If nothing else, Dern is certainly a fun fighter. Gutsy and tough, the jiu-jitsu ace often ends up throwing caution to the wind when things aren’t going her way. The combination of a heavy right hand and absolutely lethal grappling means that she’s always in a fight, and it makes for dramatic moments.

There are two avenues to success for Dern. The first is the most obvious path, though it failed in their first fight six years ago: take down and submit the Brazilian. On the floor, Dern is the best in the division by a country mile, so she can dominate this fight if able to take down Riba.

That’s a big “if,” however. Ribas is quite good at the sprawl-and-brawl strategy, and it’s not like she’s a slouch on the floor herself. A single takedown is far from a guaranteed submission even with Dern’s canvas credentials. The other path is to put a big ol’ overhand on Ribas’ jawline. At this point, it’s fairly known that Ribas stands a little too tall, isn’t that durable, and doesn’t move her head all that much.

Ideally, Dern gives herself the best opportunity to win by trying both. If she’s pressuring behind her jab, shooting for double legs, and using the takedown feint to fire her overhand, she stands a solid chance at scoring revenge.

How Ribas Wins

Ribas is a fun fighter too! The Judo and jiu-jitsu black belt is quite scrappy on her feet, a continually interesting mix of dangerous and vulnerable. Ribas is a tough customer as well, having won more than couple bouts via grit and conditioning after difficult starts.

In the first fight, Ribas made it look fairly easy. Her grappling background was enough to repulse Dern’s subpar takedown attempts, and on the feet, she was the more fluid and active striker. The only concern here is that Dern’s wrestling and punching have improved by some measure, and Ribas has to continue to assert her dominance regardless of that change.

It’s all going to come down to footwork and distance. Ribas is the better kicker and sharper straight puncher. If she can maintain a bit of range, she’ll see Dern’s diving takedowns and straightforward charges coming. Any time Dern is able to close the distance, the situation grows a bit more dicey, even if Ribas remains capable of competing in the clinch as well.

Dern vs. Ribas 2 Prediction

I don’t want to pretend like Dern has completely reinvented herself since the first fight six years ago. Between the two, however, it feels as though she has improved more, whereas Ribas was already a more complete product at the time. Dern’s work with Parillo has definitely sharpened her hands (if not her defense), whereas they were an absolute liability in 2019. Dern’s wrestling is still quite inconsistent, but on occasion at least, she’ll show off a nice blast double that was utterly absent from her game in the first fight.

Are those adjustments enough to make the difference over five rounds? I’m willing to take a gamble and say yes, Dern finds the chin or takedown enough to sway the difference. Part of my reasoning is Ribas struggles to make the Strawweight limit and has been noticeably more easy to rattle by strikes at that class.

Since neither fighter is a defensive wizard, a scrap seems likely. It’s clear who holds the power and durability edge, and I’m not sure Ribas’ technical superiority on the feet will matter if she’s dizzy and slow to react.

Prediction: Dern via decision