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Diggin’ Deep on the UFC Fight Night 90: Dos Anjos vs Alvarez prelims
Get the rundown on the early portion of the card for UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez out of Las Vegas, featuring a welterweight fight between Mike Pyle and Alberto Mina, as well as the return of lightweight prospect Gilbert Burns and bantamweight prospect Pedro Munhoz.
Sit down, strap in, and shut up cause a historic weekend of fights is about to kick off!
What does the preliminary portion of UFC Fight Night 90 offer? Not much compared to the other offerings later in the week, but that is a bit unfair considering the status of this weekend. The card does offer a bunch of prospects who have recently stumbled looking to get back on the winning track and a couple of action fighters who are always amongst the favorites to pick up a Fight Night bonus. There is not much name value admittedly, but a better than average chance to walk away pleased with the entertainment quality. Trust me… I’ve researched all these guys extensively and lying to you doesn’t add to my paycheck.
I’m also aware that this is an extremely long article and I apologize, but I find it to be a crock to sell short a preview simply because there are a lot of other fights taking place. No fight being sold short here!
The preliminary card starts at 6:30 ET/3:30 PT.
Mike Pyle (27-11-1) vs. Alberto Mina (12-0), Welterweight
Everyone’s favorite mullet-wearing 40-year old returns in his gatekeeper role against an undefeated prospect. Wait… is it accurate to call Mina a prospect when he is already 34?
Pyle has proven that you can continue to make strides as a fighter in the waning years of your career as he has belied his reputation as a grappler by developing a penchant for ending contests with his fists. As he approaches 41, it is near impossible to see him making any jumps in the standing. That doesn’t mean that he can’t pull out a few wins and win a bonus or two before he hangs up his gloves.
It doesn’t feel right to call Mina a prospect when he started his professional career over 10 years ago. Nonetheless, an argument can made that is what he is as he has yet to establish a ceiling on just how high he can climb in the standings. The judo and BJJ expert has only logged two fights in over two years within the UFC. If he wants to make a serious run to the top like he believes that he can, he needs to start fighting more often.
Pyle opened up his career with two TKO wins in his first 21 victories as opposed to 16 submission wins. In the time since, he has registered 5 TKO victories in his last 6 W’s. Utilizing a narrow and upright Muay Thai stance, Pyle struggles to avoid punches at a distance with kicks being his primary form of attack. Where he is at his best is against the fence or the clinch as he puts a lot of power into his punches and elbows while also being able to grind away. He’s added a step-in knee recently as well to prevent opponents from rushing in or shooting on him. Pyle is also capable of landing a sneaky trip or throw in that range. Another quirk of his is to play possum in hope of drawing his opponent into a trap. If he goes to the ground he’ll risk losing position in order to submit his opponent, making him one of the more entertaining ground fighters.
Mina is a Muay Thai practitioner himself who may have more natural power than Pyle. The problem is that he is also a much sloppier striker who leaves himself wide open to the counter. Basically, he’s a brawler. His chin has allowed him to find success thus far as he has eaten some good shots, but chins eventually erode. Just ask Dan Henderson or Chuck Liddell. He’s resorted to this more than anyone expected upon his UFC entry since his telegraphed shots have been easily stuffed and he hasn’t integrated his judo efficiently. If he can get the fight to the ground, he’s a world class grappler with smooth guard passes and a knack for the evaporating art of armbars and kimuras.
Worth noting is Pyle’s propensity to start slow and Mina’s to gas late in fights. Seven of Pyle’s career losses came in the first round while Mina resorted to hoping Yoshihiro Akiyama would dive into his guard in the final round of his last appearance. Pyle is known as Quicksand for his ability to make in-fight adjustments to drag his opponents into deeper trouble, illustrated by his last two wins coming with less than a minute until the 15 minute time limit expired. The longer the fight goes, the better shape he’ll be in.
Most people will probably be picking Pyle simply because he has the more recognizable name. When you only fight twice in two years with both appearances on Fight Pass as Mina has, few fans will recognize your name. Mina isn’t a joke and could end up pulling off the upset, especially early. I don’t think that will happen though. Pyle should be able to avoid Mina’s power punches early before finding a rhythm and scoring a late finish. Pyle via TKO of the third round
John Makdessi (13-5) vs. Mehdi Baghdad (11-4), Lightweight
Though this fight is under the radar, it is a serious dark horse for FOTN as it is likely these two vicious strikers will be fighting for their jobs.
Makdessi has been around the UFC for over a half-decade now and has scored some aesthetically impressive wins over that time. Remember his spinning backfist on Kyle Watson? Good times. He is now riding a two-fight losing streak at the hands of Donald Cerrone and Yancy Medeiros. Despite being a fun dude to watch and those losses coming to quality opponents, he probably can’t afford a third loss in a row.
Baghdad is coming off of a quick loss to Chris Wade as an injury replacement for his UFC debut following his stint on TUF 22. Anyone else remember his memorable brawl with Artem Lobov to gain entry into the house? Oh yeah… no one watches that show anymore. Having trained with the likes of Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida throughout his career, Baghdad is more traveled than his record would indicate. His UFC stint could come to a crashing end though with another loss as he did little to acquit himself in his loss to Wade.
Makdessi is an expert at angles, footwork, and distance management, skills that he picked up in his kickboxing career prior to his conversion to MMA. He is successfully able to navigate his opponents reach despite a short 68″ reach to successfully establish a jab often followed by a hard right. He has a wide array of kicks as well with spinning and side kicks being the most prominent. Makdessi doesn’t get enough credit as a wrestler since he only uses it to keep himself upright -€” he hasn’t scored a single takedown in his UFC career -€” but he does a great job of keeping the fight standing which is right where he wants the fight to take place.
Some see Makdessi and Baghdad as being similar fighters which isn’t quite true. Yes, there are similarities, but having similarities and being similar fighters are different things. Both prefer to stand and trade and have a lot of kicks in their arsenal, but Baghdad is a much more stationary fighter who is willing to mix in the occasional takedown. Not that his wrestling is great, but he can hit the occasional reactive double-leg. Baghdad has relied a lot on his strong chin and head movement to avoid damage which doesn’t seem like a recipe for success against the likes of Makdessi. Look for him to utilize this clinch as much as possible as he has sharp elbows and a nice Thai plum in which to land knees.
The one thing that gives me pause to consider Baghdad scoring the upset is his massive 75″reach. Makdessi has struggled with rangy opponents in the past, dropping fights to Anthony Njokuani, Alan Patrick, and Donald Cerrone who are all longer opponents. Seven inches is a pretty significant disadvantage to overcome. Baghdad doesn’t use his jab much other than to gauge distance, so perhaps I’m looking too deep into this.
Baghdad’s physical advantages really do give him a great opportunity to upset Makdessi. It would be a different story if Makdessi were the type to drive Baghdad onto his back as quick as possible -€” much like Wade did -€” but Makdessi’s style gives Baghdad a greater window of opportunity. Though I’m picking Makdessi as he has improved the depth of his striking in his time in the UFC, don’t be surprised to see Baghdad find a way to put the lights out on the Canadian. Makdessi via decision
Anthony Birchak (12-3) vs. Dileno Lopes (18-2), Bantamweight
Is it an overstatement to declare any time Birchak fights as must-see-TV? Whether it is or isn’t, I have yet to be bored watching a fight that he has been in and Lopes is pretty damned entertaining too.
Due to the exciting nature of his fights, Birchak has developed a bit of a cult following in MMA fandom. Considering he only sports a 1-2 UFC record it should say something about how entertaining his fighting style is. That gives him a bit more leeway than it would other fighters with a similar record in terms of job security, but seeing if you have Leonard Garcia-level job security is never a wise strategy.
Lopes is coming off of a controversial loss in the finals of the TUF Brazil 4 tournament. Now he could be in a win-or-go-home situation similar to Birchak. Long a top prospect at flyweight, Lopes appears to have outgrown the division as he is staying at bantamweight after most thought he’d drop down to 125 once the tournament ended. He’d better hope his lack of size doesn’t bring him down as it is very noticeable at 135.
A ball of energy in the cage, Birchak prefers circling around his opponent looking for an opening he likes before exploding in to attack. Sometimes he’ll leap in there to land a single kick, but usually he’s throwing a barrage of punches. Those punches have a nice bit of power behind them, just not necessarily technique. Owning a background in wrestling, he is willing to mix in the occasional single-leg if he feels he is taking too much damage on the feet, though he is more liable to reach for a Thai plum than look for the takedown. He has some vicious knees and cutting elbows from there. Simply put, he is a whirling dervish of violence.
Lopes pushes a very fast pace as well, but takes a much more measured approach in his striking. He will occasionally flash a burst of violence, though he is much more inclined to sit back and counter with simple 1-2 combinations. His kicks to the body and legs might be his best overall strike as he is able to put a lot of power behind those. Then again, he has finished a number of opponents with his fists recently. His signature move is his guillotine, usually obtained by latching onto his standing opponent and holding on with all that he has until they tap or pull their head out. It didn’t work for him again Reginaldo Vieira in the tournament, but he went for it three times and came close to getting the tap every time.
We really haven’t seen any grappling out of Birchak thus far outside of being heel hooked by Ian Entwistle and it’s unlikely we’ll see much out of him offensively in those terms, as he would rather put his fists in an opponent’s face than search for a submission. He’ll probably need to sharpen his defensive chops though as Lopes has a surprisingly powerful double-leg. Don’t be surprised to see if he can time that as Birchak looks to move in for the kill. Though he can fall into bouts of inactivity from the top position, Lopes has a nose for getting his opponents back in the midst of a scramble.
I strongly leaned towards picking Lopes for the upset as he has a more complete game, a solid chin, and could very well end up cinching in that guillotine. I can’t get past his lack of size though and believe he’ll struggle to navigate Birchak’s wild swings while getting his own in. It should be fun while it lasts, which probably won’t be long. Birchak via TKO of the first round
Russell Doane (14-5) vs. Pedro Munhoz (11-2, 1 NC), Bantamweight
Once upon a time, Doane and Munhoz were two of the brightest prospects in the bantamweight division. That was two years ago. Now they could be fighting to keep their jobs.
Doane seems to be the greater disappointment of the two due to an upset loss to Jerrod Sanders in his last appearance. No one doubts that he has the talent or toughness to burst into the rankings in short order. It’s his fight IQ that has been questioned. Rapidly approaching 30, he isn’t as young as many think he is either which means he’ll need to make his move up the standings soon if he is ever going to make it.
Munhoz has taken a much stranger journey after battling the Nova Scotia Boxing Commission over his testosterone levels from a fight in October 2014. They weren’t recorded above the legal limit, but they were higher than they had previously been in an earlier test which resulted in his victory over the aforementioned Sanders being overturned to a no contest. Upon his return he dropped a decision to Jimmie Rivera in one of 2015’s most underrated fights. He too is quickly approaching 30.
Doane’s reputation is that of a scrambler and submission specialist, but he is pretty well-rounded overall. He has shown a weakness to superior wrestlers, but that is the only major chink in his armor. He actually has some decent takedown capabilities himself and good ground strikes to create openings for his guard passing as he looks for submissions. Even if he doesn’t finish the takedown, he’s just happy creating a scramble as there are few out there who can beat him to position on a regular basis.
Ironically enough, Munhoz might be one of the few who can do just that as he is a hell of a scrambler himself. While not quite as quick as Doane, Munhoz is only a half-step slower at most while being exceptionally technical in his BJJ. He beautifully blends his wrestling with his grappling to effortlessly control while looking for appropriate openings to sink in a submission. His weakness is getting the fight to the ground as he telegraphs his shots since he struggles to set up his takedowns as it is a chore for him to get within striking distance without eating too much damage due to his short 64″ reach. If he can navigate that issue, he’s actually good at changing levels effectively.
The battle on the feet should the big X-factor as there is a good chance their grappling skills will cancel one another out. Doane sporadically puts together boxing combinations, but isn’t very consistent in that regard as he’ll often resort to just winging hard hooks looking for the kill shot. Munhoz is much more regular in putting together volume as he throws a steady stream of hard leg kicks when he can’t get within punching range. When he is within range, he puts together slick punching combinations with occasional stopping power.
Some of the better matchmaking Sean Shelby has done, this should be a hell of a contest. There are many similarities between these two, though I’d say that Munhoz owns a slight advantage in every area except for power. That often enough turns out to be the great equalizer, but Munhoz’s chin and other skills should be enough to get him the judge’s nod in this case. Munhoz via decision
Felipe Arantes (17-7-1, 2 NC) vs. Jerrod Sanders (15-2 1 NC), Bantamweight
Not a lot of intrigue involved in this match as neither appear to have potential beyond being a mid-tier gatekeeper. Filler would be the most appropriate word to use here. Alas, it is my job to let you know what to expect.
Arantes has the greater amount of potential between the two as he is younger at 28 compared to Sanders’ age of 36. Perhaps more telling he is relatively new to the bantamweight division as this will be his sophomore effort after spending the earlier portion of his UFC career at featherweight. Perhaps he can actually make a run in his new home, but there are still far too many questions surrounding him to anticipate that.
Sanders’ limited skill set and age make it hard to see him having much success outside of beating up the bottom dwellers of the division. He is coming off of a win in his last appearance, but he was disposed of pretty quickly in his first two UFC contests in a noncompetitive manner. The best way to put it is he can steal a win or two, but he is going to be the underdog in just about any fight he has in the UFC.
Arantes offense is centered around kicks as his punches consist of fairly wild hooks thrown with power but not much accuracy. The kicks are thrown with more control than his punches and he throws them to all areas of his opponent’s anatomy. Though he isn’t the most powerful striker, he hits hard enough that his power needs to be respected. Arantes falls into periods of inactivity that not only result in him not landing much volume, but also eating a lot of damage in the process as he’ll fail to respond.
Fortunately for Arantes, Sanders isn’t much of a standup threat. He’s improved his boxing a bit and can at least boast a decent left hook at this point. The problem is that he automatically resorts back to his wrestling which he honed at Oklahoma State as an All-American as soon as he gets hit. He has a massive frame for a bantamweight with a powerful though not especially quick shot. He showed more athleticism than most thought he possessed previously by holding his own against Russell Doane in scrambling situations, taking his back numerous times.
This could spell trouble for Arantes as his biggest weakness has been avoiding the takedowns from his opposition. He’s been able to stay competitive on the ground thanks to his active submissions off of his back which also help open up the possibility for sweeps from there. Sanders has struggled to maintain control on the ground when he goes for the finish which offers Arantes a glimmer of hope on the ground. Perhaps fighting smaller opponents at 135 will help Arantes in stuffing his opponent’s takedowns, but it didn’t seem to do much against Yves Jabouin.
This should be academic as Sanders is far too one-dimensional to find any sustained success in the modern version of the UFC. What gives me pause is he beat Russell Doane who I would favor ahead of Arantes. I’m still going with Arantes as Sanders has proven himself to be prone to being finished. I’m just not sure if it will be a submission or strikes. Arantes via TKO of the second round
Gilbert Burns (10-1) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (13-1), Lightweight
Uber prospect Burns just suffered his first career setback and now the UFC is setting him up to get back on track by matching him up with a European whom they have no plans for.
We should have seen the signs that Burns wasn’t ready for the big time when he struggled with a short notice Alex Oliveira in his last victory, before losing a one-sided decision to Rashid Magomedov. There is no reason to give up on him yet as these types of pitfalls are typical for a prospects development. He doesn’t have too much tread on his tires so turning 30 later this month shouldn’t be too much of a concern for him.
Sajewski has a lot of heart and toughness. What he doesn’t have is a lot of the physical skills necessary to find success on the higher levels. That doesn’t mean that he can’t find a win or two in the UFC since being in the organization doesn’t automatically mean you’re fighting at the highest level anymore. He’ll need to step up his game in a hurry as he’s likely to be cut with a loss here.
Burns came into the UFC with a reputation as an exceptionally high level BJJ practitioner. While that isn’t necessarily untrue, it is a bit unfair as he is more than that. He’s received good training with the Blackzilians to turn him into a sound striker as he puts together simple boxing combinations and throws some impressive kicks as well. Despite those improvements, he tends to lose confidence in his striking once he has been pieced up a bit, beginning to fight tentatively which leads to him eating more damage.
The big problem with Sajewski is volume. Though he does a good job applying pressure, he spends too much time looking for the right opening and often throwing from too far from the outside for the punch to have any real chance of landing. Other times he simply telegraphs what he’s going to do to give his opponent enough time to no longer be in the vicinity. He mixes in push and leg kicks a little here and there, but he could certainly do himself favors if he increased their output.
Sajewski’s strength comes in the same area where Burns is at his best: grappling. He isn’t nearly as smooth or technically sound as the former World BJJ champion is. Even if he were, Sajewski’s wrestling is lacking which leaves questions as to how he would get the fight to the ground anyway. To his credit, he is dogged in his approach as he chains his attempts together to achieve some success here and there. Burns’ takedown defense was shaky in his appearance against Magomedov, but most people haven’t tried to get him to the ground as his positional control is outstanding in addition to his seamless guard passing and submissions.
To be blunt, I can’t see how Sajewski wins this outside of a lucky punch. Even that seems incredulous as he lacks power. The key for Burns will be to avoid any mental breakdowns in order to put together a complete performance. If he can’t do that he’ll lose some of the shine off of his star even if he picks up a win. I think he does it here. Burns via submission of the first round
Marco Beltran (7-3) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (13-3), Bantamweight
Coming off of his TUF Brazil 4 tournament victory, the UFC is offering Vieira a softball in Mexico’s Beltran. Then again, Beltran has pulled off a couple of upsets already….
Beltran was the underdog in both of his previous UFC appearances and was able to walk out the winner both times, extending his stay when most expected him to be a one-and-done fighter. Granted that neither Marlon Vera nor Guangyou Ning had as much experience as Vieira, he is now facing the biggest challenge of his career by a wide margin.
Vieira isn’t a youngster by any means at the age of 33. That means his window of finding UFC success is limited as the smaller weight classes tend to fall prey to the pitfalls of age sooner than the larger dudes. There isn’t an exorbitant amount of tread on his tires for his experience level, so perhaps he can defy the odds as fellow TUF Brazil winner Leonardo Santos has done and find UFC success well into his mid-30’s.
Beltran is a pretty solid athlete with a 69″ reach which usually gives him an advantage over most of his opponents. Now if only he could find a way to consistently use the tools. He doesn’t set up his strikes, often throwing kicks or punches easy to see coming. Adding a jab or utilizing feints would go a long way toward making him a more competent striker. He does put together good boxing combinations from time to time when pressuring his opponent which are his most effective strikes.
Beltran may actually throw more technical strikes than Vieira, he just doesn’t throw nearly as many. Vieira’s punches largely consist of looping hooks to the head with the occasional straight shot to the body. Often times he uses the hooks as a means to cover distance in hopes of shooting for a takedown or getting the clinch. Speaking of the clinch, that is where he is most comfortable from the standing position as he alternates knees with hard punches. He does tend to get wild and leave himself wide open for a counter in the process.
Fortunately for Vieira his wheelhouse is on the ground where you will find few who go after submissions with more aggression than he does. Guillotines (including the standing type) and armbars tend to be his preferred method. Beltran will mix in the occasional takedown and is solid in scrambles, but has a shallow overall grappling game. Vieira’s wrestling isn’t that great, but if he can find a way to get Beltran to the ground I don’t see Beltran getting back up without spending significant time being controlled or submitted.
I feel as though Beltran is a lower level of competition than Vieira should be getting, but I suppose he deserves a chance against higher competition after picking up two wins against the lesser competitors of the division. Like Sajewski, Beltran hasn’t shown enough power to make a flash KO a wise prediction. Vieira should score an easy victory here. Vieira via submission of the second round
Vicente Luque (8-5-1) vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-3), Welterweight
Likely to end up as a trivia question as the bout to open up the weekend of UFC 200 rather than any major implications, Luque and Herrera should open things up right in terms of entertainment value at the very least.
While no one is comparing him to Kamaru Usman -€” the winner of the season -€” Luque is one of the better young talents to come out of TUF 21. Only 24, he still has plenty of time to continue to hone his abilities and become a mainstay on the UFC roster. Being an entertaining fighter sure doesn’t hurt his staying power potential either.
Herrera is on a shorter leash than Luque. Despite having a better record, being roughly the same age, and having been in the sport about the same amount of time, he has faced considerably lower competition on the Mexican circuit. Translation: he still has a lot to prove. Luque stands a good chance of sticking around if he loses whereas Herrera is likely to be cut if he is the one to fall short.
Luque has shown a very well-rounded skill set with one major hole in his arsenal: his wrestling defense. Michael Graves took him down at will in their UFC debuts, painting a massive target for opponents to go after. Fortunately for Luque, Herrera doesn’t have nearly the wrestling pedigree of Graves which should allow Luque to showcase his varied talents. He’s at his best when he is able to establish a rhythm with his boxing, establishing his jab and following up with some pretty combinations with a good mix to the body and head. He displays occasional power, though the likelihood of him scoring a flash KO is significantly lower than seeing him wear out his opponent with sheer volume.
Herrera’s biggest advantage will come in the power department as he wings hard hooks that can turn out his opponent’s lights in a hurry. It isn’t technically pretty, but he’s proven its effectiveness when he was able to score a KO 30 seconds into his official UFC debut. The issue is that his gas tank runs shallow when he can’t score an early KO and he starts to fight with his hands low with long periods of inactivity. Luque has shown a pretty good tank which is why Herrera will need to get him out of there in a hurry to find a high likelihood of victory.
Herrera isn’t completely without wrestling as he has a powerful shot early in the fight. He just doesn’t have the doggedness to maintain the approach over the course of 15 minutes as he tends to pretty much sit in top position before the referee stands up the fight due to inactivity. He can’t expect to do that time and again as Luque has an active guard where he’s willing to throw up submissions or sweep his opponent to their back. Though Luque isn’t great at stopping takedowns, he’s more than capable of scoring the occasional one for himself.
I really don’t like Herrera’s chances against a higher level of competition. He’s never made it into the third round and doesn’t appear to have tank to be effective that far into a fight. Luque is well coached and fantastic at nabbing transitional submissions. He’ll either grab one or put the finishing touches on a worn out Herrera with his fists late in the fight. Luque via TKO of the third round
Odds (by Odds Shark)
Mike Pyle (+140) / Alberto Mina (-180)
John Makdessi (-185) / Mehdi Baghdad (+145)
Anthony Birchak (-285) / Dileno Lopes (+205)
Russell Doane (+165) / Pedro Munhoz (-215)
Felipe Arantes (-180) / Jerrod Sanders (+140)
Gilbert Burns (-265) / Lukasz Sajewski (+185)
Marco Beltran (+135) / Reginaldo Vieira (-175)
Vicente Luque (-380) / Alvaro Herrera (+260)
Get the rundown on the early portion of the card for UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez out of Las Vegas, featuring a welterweight fight between Mike Pyle and Alberto Mina, as well as the return of lightweight prospect Gilbert Burns and bantamweight prospect Pedro Munhoz.
Sit down, strap in, and shut up cause a historic weekend of fights is about to kick off!
What does the preliminary portion of UFC Fight Night 90 offer? Not much compared to the other offerings later in the week, but that is a bit unfair considering the status of this weekend. The card does offer a bunch of prospects who have recently stumbled looking to get back on the winning track and a couple of action fighters who are always amongst the favorites to pick up a Fight Night bonus. There is not much name value admittedly, but a better than average chance to walk away pleased with the entertainment quality. Trust me… I’ve researched all these guys extensively and lying to you doesn’t add to my paycheck.
I’m also aware that this is an extremely long article and I apologize, but I find it to be a crock to sell short a preview simply because there are a lot of other fights taking place. No fight being sold short here!
The preliminary card starts at 6:30 ET/3:30 PT.
Mike Pyle (27-11-1) vs. Alberto Mina (12-0), Welterweight
Everyone’s favorite mullet-wearing 40-year old returns in his gatekeeper role against an undefeated prospect. Wait… is it accurate to call Mina a prospect when he is already 34?
Pyle has proven that you can continue to make strides as a fighter in the waning years of your career as he has belied his reputation as a grappler by developing a penchant for ending contests with his fists. As he approaches 41, it is near impossible to see him making any jumps in the standing. That doesn’t mean that he can’t pull out a few wins and win a bonus or two before he hangs up his gloves.
It doesn’t feel right to call Mina a prospect when he started his professional career over 10 years ago. Nonetheless, an argument can made that is what he is as he has yet to establish a ceiling on just how high he can climb in the standings. The judo and BJJ expert has only logged two fights in over two years within the UFC. If he wants to make a serious run to the top like he believes that he can, he needs to start fighting more often.
Pyle opened up his career with two TKO wins in his first 21 victories as opposed to 16 submission wins. In the time since, he has registered 5 TKO victories in his last 6 W’s. Utilizing a narrow and upright Muay Thai stance, Pyle struggles to avoid punches at a distance with kicks being his primary form of attack. Where he is at his best is against the fence or the clinch as he puts a lot of power into his punches and elbows while also being able to grind away. He’s added a step-in knee recently as well to prevent opponents from rushing in or shooting on him. Pyle is also capable of landing a sneaky trip or throw in that range. Another quirk of his is to play possum in hope of drawing his opponent into a trap. If he goes to the ground he’ll risk losing position in order to submit his opponent, making him one of the more entertaining ground fighters.
Mina is a Muay Thai practitioner himself who may have more natural power than Pyle. The problem is that he is also a much sloppier striker who leaves himself wide open to the counter. Basically, he’s a brawler. His chin has allowed him to find success thus far as he has eaten some good shots, but chins eventually erode. Just ask Dan Henderson or Chuck Liddell. He’s resorted to this more than anyone expected upon his UFC entry since his telegraphed shots have been easily stuffed and he hasn’t integrated his judo efficiently. If he can get the fight to the ground, he’s a world class grappler with smooth guard passes and a knack for the evaporating art of armbars and kimuras.
Worth noting is Pyle’s propensity to start slow and Mina’s to gas late in fights. Seven of Pyle’s career losses came in the first round while Mina resorted to hoping Yoshihiro Akiyama would dive into his guard in the final round of his last appearance. Pyle is known as Quicksand for his ability to make in-fight adjustments to drag his opponents into deeper trouble, illustrated by his last two wins coming with less than a minute until the 15 minute time limit expired. The longer the fight goes, the better shape he’ll be in.
Most people will probably be picking Pyle simply because he has the more recognizable name. When you only fight twice in two years with both appearances on Fight Pass as Mina has, few fans will recognize your name. Mina isn’t a joke and could end up pulling off the upset, especially early. I don’t think that will happen though. Pyle should be able to avoid Mina’s power punches early before finding a rhythm and scoring a late finish. Pyle via TKO of the third round
John Makdessi (13-5) vs. Mehdi Baghdad (11-4), Lightweight
Though this fight is under the radar, it is a serious dark horse for FOTN as it is likely these two vicious strikers will be fighting for their jobs.
Makdessi has been around the UFC for over a half-decade now and has scored some aesthetically impressive wins over that time. Remember his spinning backfist on Kyle Watson? Good times. He is now riding a two-fight losing streak at the hands of Donald Cerrone and Yancy Medeiros. Despite being a fun dude to watch and those losses coming to quality opponents, he probably can’t afford a third loss in a row.
Baghdad is coming off of a quick loss to Chris Wade as an injury replacement for his UFC debut following his stint on TUF 22. Anyone else remember his memorable brawl with Artem Lobov to gain entry into the house? Oh yeah… no one watches that show anymore. Having trained with the likes of Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida throughout his career, Baghdad is more traveled than his record would indicate. His UFC stint could come to a crashing end though with another loss as he did little to acquit himself in his loss to Wade.
Makdessi is an expert at angles, footwork, and distance management, skills that he picked up in his kickboxing career prior to his conversion to MMA. He is successfully able to navigate his opponents reach despite a short 68″ reach to successfully establish a jab often followed by a hard right. He has a wide array of kicks as well with spinning and side kicks being the most prominent. Makdessi doesn’t get enough credit as a wrestler since he only uses it to keep himself upright -€” he hasn’t scored a single takedown in his UFC career -€” but he does a great job of keeping the fight standing which is right where he wants the fight to take place.
Some see Makdessi and Baghdad as being similar fighters which isn’t quite true. Yes, there are similarities, but having similarities and being similar fighters are different things. Both prefer to stand and trade and have a lot of kicks in their arsenal, but Baghdad is a much more stationary fighter who is willing to mix in the occasional takedown. Not that his wrestling is great, but he can hit the occasional reactive double-leg. Baghdad has relied a lot on his strong chin and head movement to avoid damage which doesn’t seem like a recipe for success against the likes of Makdessi. Look for him to utilize this clinch as much as possible as he has sharp elbows and a nice Thai plum in which to land knees.
The one thing that gives me pause to consider Baghdad scoring the upset is his massive 75″reach. Makdessi has struggled with rangy opponents in the past, dropping fights to Anthony Njokuani, Alan Patrick, and Donald Cerrone who are all longer opponents. Seven inches is a pretty significant disadvantage to overcome. Baghdad doesn’t use his jab much other than to gauge distance, so perhaps I’m looking too deep into this.
Baghdad’s physical advantages really do give him a great opportunity to upset Makdessi. It would be a different story if Makdessi were the type to drive Baghdad onto his back as quick as possible -€” much like Wade did -€” but Makdessi’s style gives Baghdad a greater window of opportunity. Though I’m picking Makdessi as he has improved the depth of his striking in his time in the UFC, don’t be surprised to see Baghdad find a way to put the lights out on the Canadian. Makdessi via decision
Anthony Birchak (12-3) vs. Dileno Lopes (18-2), Bantamweight
Is it an overstatement to declare any time Birchak fights as must-see-TV? Whether it is or isn’t, I have yet to be bored watching a fight that he has been in and Lopes is pretty damned entertaining too.
Due to the exciting nature of his fights, Birchak has developed a bit of a cult following in MMA fandom. Considering he only sports a 1-2 UFC record it should say something about how entertaining his fighting style is. That gives him a bit more leeway than it would other fighters with a similar record in terms of job security, but seeing if you have Leonard Garcia-level job security is never a wise strategy.
Lopes is coming off of a controversial loss in the finals of the TUF Brazil 4 tournament. Now he could be in a win-or-go-home situation similar to Birchak. Long a top prospect at flyweight, Lopes appears to have outgrown the division as he is staying at bantamweight after most thought he’d drop down to 125 once the tournament ended. He’d better hope his lack of size doesn’t bring him down as it is very noticeable at 135.
A ball of energy in the cage, Birchak prefers circling around his opponent looking for an opening he likes before exploding in to attack. Sometimes he’ll leap in there to land a single kick, but usually he’s throwing a barrage of punches. Those punches have a nice bit of power behind them, just not necessarily technique. Owning a background in wrestling, he is willing to mix in the occasional single-leg if he feels he is taking too much damage on the feet, though he is more liable to reach for a Thai plum than look for the takedown. He has some vicious knees and cutting elbows from there. Simply put, he is a whirling dervish of violence.
Lopes pushes a very fast pace as well, but takes a much more measured approach in his striking. He will occasionally flash a burst of violence, though he is much more inclined to sit back and counter with simple 1-2 combinations. His kicks to the body and legs might be his best overall strike as he is able to put a lot of power behind those. Then again, he has finished a number of opponents with his fists recently. His signature move is his guillotine, usually obtained by latching onto his standing opponent and holding on with all that he has until they tap or pull their head out. It didn’t work for him again Reginaldo Vieira in the tournament, but he went for it three times and came close to getting the tap every time.
We really haven’t seen any grappling out of Birchak thus far outside of being heel hooked by Ian Entwistle and it’s unlikely we’ll see much out of him offensively in those terms, as he would rather put his fists in an opponent’s face than search for a submission. He’ll probably need to sharpen his defensive chops though as Lopes has a surprisingly powerful double-leg. Don’t be surprised to see if he can time that as Birchak looks to move in for the kill. Though he can fall into bouts of inactivity from the top position, Lopes has a nose for getting his opponents back in the midst of a scramble.
I strongly leaned towards picking Lopes for the upset as he has a more complete game, a solid chin, and could very well end up cinching in that guillotine. I can’t get past his lack of size though and believe he’ll struggle to navigate Birchak’s wild swings while getting his own in. It should be fun while it lasts, which probably won’t be long. Birchak via TKO of the first round
Russell Doane (14-5) vs. Pedro Munhoz (11-2, 1 NC), Bantamweight
Once upon a time, Doane and Munhoz were two of the brightest prospects in the bantamweight division. That was two years ago. Now they could be fighting to keep their jobs.
Doane seems to be the greater disappointment of the two due to an upset loss to Jerrod Sanders in his last appearance. No one doubts that he has the talent or toughness to burst into the rankings in short order. It’s his fight IQ that has been questioned. Rapidly approaching 30, he isn’t as young as many think he is either which means he’ll need to make his move up the standings soon if he is ever going to make it.
Munhoz has taken a much stranger journey after battling the Nova Scotia Boxing Commission over his testosterone levels from a fight in October 2014. They weren’t recorded above the legal limit, but they were higher than they had previously been in an earlier test which resulted in his victory over the aforementioned Sanders being overturned to a no contest. Upon his return he dropped a decision to Jimmie Rivera in one of 2015’s most underrated fights. He too is quickly approaching 30.
Doane’s reputation is that of a scrambler and submission specialist, but he is pretty well-rounded overall. He has shown a weakness to superior wrestlers, but that is the only major chink in his armor. He actually has some decent takedown capabilities himself and good ground strikes to create openings for his guard passing as he looks for submissions. Even if he doesn’t finish the takedown, he’s just happy creating a scramble as there are few out there who can beat him to position on a regular basis.
Ironically enough, Munhoz might be one of the few who can do just that as he is a hell of a scrambler himself. While not quite as quick as Doane, Munhoz is only a half-step slower at most while being exceptionally technical in his BJJ. He beautifully blends his wrestling with his grappling to effortlessly control while looking for appropriate openings to sink in a submission. His weakness is getting the fight to the ground as he telegraphs his shots since he struggles to set up his takedowns as it is a chore for him to get within striking distance without eating too much damage due to his short 64″ reach. If he can navigate that issue, he’s actually good at changing levels effectively.
The battle on the feet should the big X-factor as there is a good chance their grappling skills will cancel one another out. Doane sporadically puts together boxing combinations, but isn’t very consistent in that regard as he’ll often resort to just winging hard hooks looking for the kill shot. Munhoz is much more regular in putting together volume as he throws a steady stream of hard leg kicks when he can’t get within punching range. When he is within range, he puts together slick punching combinations with occasional stopping power.
Some of the better matchmaking Sean Shelby has done, this should be a hell of a contest. There are many similarities between these two, though I’d say that Munhoz owns a slight advantage in every area except for power. That often enough turns out to be the great equalizer, but Munhoz’s chin and other skills should be enough to get him the judge’s nod in this case. Munhoz via decision
Felipe Arantes (17-7-1, 2 NC) vs. Jerrod Sanders (15-2 1 NC), Bantamweight
Not a lot of intrigue involved in this match as neither appear to have potential beyond being a mid-tier gatekeeper. Filler would be the most appropriate word to use here. Alas, it is my job to let you know what to expect.
Arantes has the greater amount of potential between the two as he is younger at 28 compared to Sanders’ age of 36. Perhaps more telling he is relatively new to the bantamweight division as this will be his sophomore effort after spending the earlier portion of his UFC career at featherweight. Perhaps he can actually make a run in his new home, but there are still far too many questions surrounding him to anticipate that.
Sanders’ limited skill set and age make it hard to see him having much success outside of beating up the bottom dwellers of the division. He is coming off of a win in his last appearance, but he was disposed of pretty quickly in his first two UFC contests in a noncompetitive manner. The best way to put it is he can steal a win or two, but he is going to be the underdog in just about any fight he has in the UFC.
Arantes offense is centered around kicks as his punches consist of fairly wild hooks thrown with power but not much accuracy. The kicks are thrown with more control than his punches and he throws them to all areas of his opponent’s anatomy. Though he isn’t the most powerful striker, he hits hard enough that his power needs to be respected. Arantes falls into periods of inactivity that not only result in him not landing much volume, but also eating a lot of damage in the process as he’ll fail to respond.
Fortunately for Arantes, Sanders isn’t much of a standup threat. He’s improved his boxing a bit and can at least boast a decent left hook at this point. The problem is that he automatically resorts back to his wrestling which he honed at Oklahoma State as an All-American as soon as he gets hit. He has a massive frame for a bantamweight with a powerful though not especially quick shot. He showed more athleticism than most thought he possessed previously by holding his own against Russell Doane in scrambling situations, taking his back numerous times.
This could spell trouble for Arantes as his biggest weakness has been avoiding the takedowns from his opposition. He’s been able to stay competitive on the ground thanks to his active submissions off of his back which also help open up the possibility for sweeps from there. Sanders has struggled to maintain control on the ground when he goes for the finish which offers Arantes a glimmer of hope on the ground. Perhaps fighting smaller opponents at 135 will help Arantes in stuffing his opponent’s takedowns, but it didn’t seem to do much against Yves Jabouin.
This should be academic as Sanders is far too one-dimensional to find any sustained success in the modern version of the UFC. What gives me pause is he beat Russell Doane who I would favor ahead of Arantes. I’m still going with Arantes as Sanders has proven himself to be prone to being finished. I’m just not sure if it will be a submission or strikes. Arantes via TKO of the second round
Gilbert Burns (10-1) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (13-1), Lightweight
Uber prospect Burns just suffered his first career setback and now the UFC is setting him up to get back on track by matching him up with a European whom they have no plans for.
We should have seen the signs that Burns wasn’t ready for the big time when he struggled with a short notice Alex Oliveira in his last victory, before losing a one-sided decision to Rashid Magomedov. There is no reason to give up on him yet as these types of pitfalls are typical for a prospects development. He doesn’t have too much tread on his tires so turning 30 later this month shouldn’t be too much of a concern for him.
Sajewski has a lot of heart and toughness. What he doesn’t have is a lot of the physical skills necessary to find success on the higher levels. That doesn’t mean that he can’t find a win or two in the UFC since being in the organization doesn’t automatically mean you’re fighting at the highest level anymore. He’ll need to step up his game in a hurry as he’s likely to be cut with a loss here.
Burns came into the UFC with a reputation as an exceptionally high level BJJ practitioner. While that isn’t necessarily untrue, it is a bit unfair as he is more than that. He’s received good training with the Blackzilians to turn him into a sound striker as he puts together simple boxing combinations and throws some impressive kicks as well. Despite those improvements, he tends to lose confidence in his striking once he has been pieced up a bit, beginning to fight tentatively which leads to him eating more damage.
The big problem with Sajewski is volume. Though he does a good job applying pressure, he spends too much time looking for the right opening and often throwing from too far from the outside for the punch to have any real chance of landing. Other times he simply telegraphs what he’s going to do to give his opponent enough time to no longer be in the vicinity. He mixes in push and leg kicks a little here and there, but he could certainly do himself favors if he increased their output.
Sajewski’s strength comes in the same area where Burns is at his best: grappling. He isn’t nearly as smooth or technically sound as the former World BJJ champion is. Even if he were, Sajewski’s wrestling is lacking which leaves questions as to how he would get the fight to the ground anyway. To his credit, he is dogged in his approach as he chains his attempts together to achieve some success here and there. Burns’ takedown defense was shaky in his appearance against Magomedov, but most people haven’t tried to get him to the ground as his positional control is outstanding in addition to his seamless guard passing and submissions.
To be blunt, I can’t see how Sajewski wins this outside of a lucky punch. Even that seems incredulous as he lacks power. The key for Burns will be to avoid any mental breakdowns in order to put together a complete performance. If he can’t do that he’ll lose some of the shine off of his star even if he picks up a win. I think he does it here. Burns via submission of the first round
Marco Beltran (7-3) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (13-3), Bantamweight
Coming off of his TUF Brazil 4 tournament victory, the UFC is offering Vieira a softball in Mexico’s Beltran. Then again, Beltran has pulled off a couple of upsets already….
Beltran was the underdog in both of his previous UFC appearances and was able to walk out the winner both times, extending his stay when most expected him to be a one-and-done fighter. Granted that neither Marlon Vera nor Guangyou Ning had as much experience as Vieira, he is now facing the biggest challenge of his career by a wide margin.
Vieira isn’t a youngster by any means at the age of 33. That means his window of finding UFC success is limited as the smaller weight classes tend to fall prey to the pitfalls of age sooner than the larger dudes. There isn’t an exorbitant amount of tread on his tires for his experience level, so perhaps he can defy the odds as fellow TUF Brazil winner Leonardo Santos has done and find UFC success well into his mid-30’s.
Beltran is a pretty solid athlete with a 69″ reach which usually gives him an advantage over most of his opponents. Now if only he could find a way to consistently use the tools. He doesn’t set up his strikes, often throwing kicks or punches easy to see coming. Adding a jab or utilizing feints would go a long way toward making him a more competent striker. He does put together good boxing combinations from time to time when pressuring his opponent which are his most effective strikes.
Beltran may actually throw more technical strikes than Vieira, he just doesn’t throw nearly as many. Vieira’s punches largely consist of looping hooks to the head with the occasional straight shot to the body. Often times he uses the hooks as a means to cover distance in hopes of shooting for a takedown or getting the clinch. Speaking of the clinch, that is where he is most comfortable from the standing position as he alternates knees with hard punches. He does tend to get wild and leave himself wide open for a counter in the process.
Fortunately for Vieira his wheelhouse is on the ground where you will find few who go after submissions with more aggression than he does. Guillotines (including the standing type) and armbars tend to be his preferred method. Beltran will mix in the occasional takedown and is solid in scrambles, but has a shallow overall grappling game. Vieira’s wrestling isn’t that great, but if he can find a way to get Beltran to the ground I don’t see Beltran getting back up without spending significant time being controlled or submitted.
I feel as though Beltran is a lower level of competition than Vieira should be getting, but I suppose he deserves a chance against higher competition after picking up two wins against the lesser competitors of the division. Like Sajewski, Beltran hasn’t shown enough power to make a flash KO a wise prediction. Vieira should score an easy victory here. Vieira via submission of the second round
Vicente Luque (8-5-1) vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-3), Welterweight
Likely to end up as a trivia question as the bout to open up the weekend of UFC 200 rather than any major implications, Luque and Herrera should open things up right in terms of entertainment value at the very least.
While no one is comparing him to Kamaru Usman -€” the winner of the season -€” Luque is one of the better young talents to come out of TUF 21. Only 24, he still has plenty of time to continue to hone his abilities and become a mainstay on the UFC roster. Being an entertaining fighter sure doesn’t hurt his staying power potential either.
Herrera is on a shorter leash than Luque. Despite having a better record, being roughly the same age, and having been in the sport about the same amount of time, he has faced considerably lower competition on the Mexican circuit. Translation: he still has a lot to prove. Luque stands a good chance of sticking around if he loses whereas Herrera is likely to be cut if he is the one to fall short.
Luque has shown a very well-rounded skill set with one major hole in his arsenal: his wrestling defense. Michael Graves took him down at will in their UFC debuts, painting a massive target for opponents to go after. Fortunately for Luque, Herrera doesn’t have nearly the wrestling pedigree of Graves which should allow Luque to showcase his varied talents. He’s at his best when he is able to establish a rhythm with his boxing, establishing his jab and following up with some pretty combinations with a good mix to the body and head. He displays occasional power, though the likelihood of him scoring a flash KO is significantly lower than seeing him wear out his opponent with sheer volume.
Herrera’s biggest advantage will come in the power department as he wings hard hooks that can turn out his opponent’s lights in a hurry. It isn’t technically pretty, but he’s proven its effectiveness when he was able to score a KO 30 seconds into his official UFC debut. The issue is that his gas tank runs shallow when he can’t score an early KO and he starts to fight with his hands low with long periods of inactivity. Luque has shown a pretty good tank which is why Herrera will need to get him out of there in a hurry to find a high likelihood of victory.
Herrera isn’t completely without wrestling as he has a powerful shot early in the fight. He just doesn’t have the doggedness to maintain the approach over the course of 15 minutes as he tends to pretty much sit in top position before the referee stands up the fight due to inactivity. He can’t expect to do that time and again as Luque has an active guard where he’s willing to throw up submissions or sweep his opponent to their back. Though Luque isn’t great at stopping takedowns, he’s more than capable of scoring the occasional one for himself.
I really don’t like Herrera’s chances against a higher level of competition. He’s never made it into the third round and doesn’t appear to have tank to be effective that far into a fight. Luque is well coached and fantastic at nabbing transitional submissions. He’ll either grab one or put the finishing touches on a worn out Herrera with his fists late in the fight. Luque via TKO of the third round
