Diggin’ Deep on UFC 242: FX prelims preview

Get the lowdown on UFC 242’s televised prelims, featuring a pivotal women’s contest at flyweight as Scotland’s Joanne Calderwood hopes to stall the momentum of Andrea Lee. It isn’t a surprise there isn’t a whole lot of depth to UFC 242. Abu…

Get the lowdown on UFC 242’s televised prelims, featuring a pivotal women’s contest at flyweight as Scotland’s Joanne Calderwood hopes to stall the momentum of Andrea Lee.

It isn’t a surprise there isn’t a whole lot of depth to UFC 242. Abu Dhabi isn’t exactly a favorite vacation destination and fighters continually are looking for the best fighting conditions possible. Fighting outdoors, in the morning, in a dry environment, thousands of miles away from home – meaning hours of flight to get there – doesn’t exactly produce ideal conditions. While the conditions don’t exactly match that of what those from the western hemisphere faced last week in China, it is comparable in being disadvantageous. Americans and Brazilians went a combined 1-6 in contests where they weren’t facing one another. It’s not like this is a development fighters are unaware of either. Thus, it’s no surprise the UFC struggled to get notable names to make their name halfway across the world.

So now that I’ve explained why there isn’t a lot of depth on the card, does that mean the prelims are devoid of interesting contests? Fortunately, there is one that produces a lot of intrigue as Joanne Calderwood clashes with Andrea Lee. As there isn’t a clear-cut contender in line to face Valentina Shevchenko next, it’s plausible the winner of this contest gets that opportunity should they win in an impressive manner, particularly Lee. The rest is largely filler, though it is notable Khabib Nurmagomedov’s teammate, Zubaira Tukhugov, returns after a three-year absence due to PED suspension and his role in the brawl last year after Nurmagomedov’s successful title defense against Conor McGregor.

The televised prelims begin on FX – yes, you read that correctly — at 12:00 PM ET/9:00 AM PT on Saturday.

Joanna Calderwood (13-4) vs. Andrea Lee (11-2), Women’s Flyweight

While most would say Calderwood’s move to flyweight has overall been a success, that doesn’t mean there haven’t been some hiccups, most notably how she seemed to let victory slip from her fingers in her last contest against Katlyn Chookagian. Calderwood peppered Chookagian with soft low kicks… and did little else. Though Calderwood is known for her lethal clinch, she hasn’t utilized that as much since the change in weight class, perhaps due to concerns about being outmuscled by larger opponents.

To Calderwood’s credit, she has made herself a greater threat on the mat. She has shown a greater reliance on her improved wrestling in addition to threatening with submissions, including a triangle choke/armbar combination off her back for the win over Kalindra Faria. There’s a good chance she’ll get an opportunity to test her grappling chops even further as Lee, despite an extensive Muay Thai background, has also made use of her own wrestling chops. Even though the ground game isn’t considered to be the strength of either competitor, there’s a strong chance both considers themselves to have the advantage in that area over the other. Given how Lee was able to avoid Montana De La Rosa’s constant submission attempts in her last contest, I don’t see a submission happening here.

What Lee has been successful at doing is improving her combinations, increasing the amount of volume and making it more difficult to counter her. In the process, she hasn’t lost a step in the clinch, using her strength to bully her opposition while also threatening with trips. Lee’s defense is hardly bulletproof and her movement has been described as labored more than once.

It’s plausible Calderwood could similarly attack from the outside the way she did against Chookagian and find more success against Lee. After all, there were a fair few who believed she deserved the win over Chookagian despite her questionable approach. However, Lee has no problem getting physical and it’s unlikely she’ll let Calderwood stay at range. Calderwood has had good reason to be wary of fighting in close quarters and Lee is likely to show exactly why, despite her longer travels. Lee via decision

  • While no one ever disputed whether Zubaira Tukhogov deserved his spot on the UFC roster, he never looked like he was on his way to being a major player in the featherweight division. Nonetheless, Khabib was loyal and said he wouldn’t fight in the Octagon again until his teammate did and stuck to his word following last year’s bruhaha. The Russian featherweight can be too patient for his own good as he waits for the perfect counter to present itself, though he does have the oomph to make this approach work. Now if he can improve his accuracy…. His opponent, Lerone Murphy, takes the contest on short notice. Murphy is a fluid athlete with a diverse attack and solid wrestling skills. However, Tukhogov has never been taken down in his UFC career. I like Murphy as a prospect – a lot — but Tukhogov is a big step up from what the inexperienced Murphy is used to. As a caveat though, I wouldn’t consider it an upset should Murphy emerge victorious. Tukhogov via decision
  • There have been few recent prospects at women’s bantamweight that excite fans and analysts alike. Liana Jojua isn’t exactly can’t-miss, but she is the best young talent the UFC has brought into the organization at 135 in a long time. At 24 and just four years into her professional career, she has plenty of time to bolster her still developing striking. Fortunately for her, Sarah Moras, her opponent, isn’t too proficient on the feet either. Moras has a strong submission game, but she can be reckless looking for a finish, putting herself into bad situations. Jojua’s own grappling has proven to be particularly advanced for someone as far into her career as she is, the armbar being her specialty. Regardless of who picks up the win, a submission victory appears likely. I’m going with the youthful Jojua to succeed in doing so. Jojua via submission of RD1
  • Don’t look too much into the undefeated record of Ottman Azaitar as the Moroccan born lightweight has yet to score a win over a notable opponent. That doesn’t mean the younger brother of UFC middleweight Abu doesn’t pack a hell of a punch. Azaitar does a great job of mixing his punches to the body, but he also has a very questionable ground game. That’s good news for Teemu Packalen, a Finnish grappler who hasn’t appeared in the Octagon in 30 months. Packalen was brutally KO’d in his last appearance, but had never been finished prior to that. He stands a great chance of stealing the win if he can get the fight to the ground. It feels like a safer bet to say his chin will be tested prior to him getting the fight where he wants. Even if he does, Azaitar tends to get back to his feet quickly when he hits the mat. The smaller Azaitar brother also proves successful in his UFC debut. Azaitar via TKO of RD2