Diggin’ Deep on UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 – Prelims preview Part 1

Get ready for a full day of fights, starting the action out in Northern Ireland with the likes of fan favorite Marion Reneau and hot bantamweight prospect Brett Johns’ UFC debut.

I can’t figure out what the UFC was thinking. Following the momentum of the historic UFC 205 show, they give us two events the following weekend with neither of them possessing a true marquee matchup. Not that there aren’t any matchups that look like fun – there better be with 14 fights scheduled on this card – but Gegard Mousasi isn’t an attraction no matter how much hardcore fans wish he was.

With the first card of Saturday – also known as UFC Fight Night 99: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 — being entirely on Fight Pass, I’m breaking up the preliminary portion of the card in half with the second half coming out tomorrow. God bless you if you actually have any interest in these fights as I had to scramble to get these out on time.

The Fight Pass prelims are scheduled to start at 12:15 PM ET/9:15 AM PT.

Justin Ledet (7-0, 1 NC) vs. Mark Godbeer (11-2), Heavyweight

After a successful UFC debut, Ledet now welcomes Englishman and Bellator veteran Godbeer to the UFC.

Ledet was pretty much an unknown commodity coming into his UFC debut. He went nearly four years in between fights in MMA to pursue a boxing career only to return this year at heavyweight after spending the early part of his career at light heavyweight. He looks as though he hasn’t missed a beat as he was in control of his contest with Chase Sherman this past August the entire time. At 28-years old, he is a baby in the heavyweight division.

Though he is best known for his single Bellator appearance – welcoming Chieck Kongo to the promotion in 2013 – Godbeer has been one of the best English heavyweights in recent years. Injuries and financial issues frustrated him to the point he announced his retirement back in December, though he returned to defend his BAMMA heavyweight title in May. At 32, he isn’t too old himself to make a run in the heavyweight division.

What Ledet has going for him is his smooth footwork and agility. He danced around Sherman for the duration of the match, never getting tired and keeping a jab in the face of his heavier and less mobile opponent. He isn’t especially powerful for the division, but is able to make up for it with his volume as he can pour on the punches in a hurry with his combinations. His 80″ reach doesn’t hurt either, a big part of why he has so much success with his jab.

Godbeer isn’t as technical of a boxer as Ledet is, nor is he as rangy as his reach checks in around 75″. That doesn’t mean he’ll want to avoid slugging it out with Ledet. Godbeer is much more diverse with his strikes, mixing in kicks with his combinations in addition to owning one-punch KO power. His overhand right in particular is dangerous. Ledet is defensively solid on his feet, but his style tends to lead to a lot of damage being accumulated on his end as well. All Godbeer may need is one opening….

Don’t expect the ground to be a factor. I haven’t found any footage of Ledet on the ground so what he is able to do there is a complete mystery. Godbeer would rather stand and trade punches as well, though his takedown defense has been questionable. If he does get taken down, Godbeer has generally gotten back to his feet in a hurry.

I’m interested in seeing how this one plays out. Ledet’s lack of power should lead to a lot of decisions on the elite level while Godbeer has never seen the final bell in any of his professional fights. Godbeer isn’t a pure brawler, but I’m going with Ledet’s technical boxing and length to give him the edge, though I admit this is very much a coin flip. Ledet via TKO of RD3

Zak Cummings (19-5) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (23-7-1), Welterweight

A pair of formerly streaking welterweights meet with employment likely on the line. Jobs are getting tougher to come by….

On two separate occasions Cummings has had a two-fight winning streak snapped in the UFC once given a step up in competition. This time it was Brazilian striker Santiago Ponzinibbio who did the honors, piecing up the Midwesterner on the feet pretty good this past August. Cummings’ grinding style isn’t exactly pretty, so he needs to win in order to stay employed.

Yakovlev has dealt with some tough opposition. Making his UFC debut against Demian Maia, Yakovlev was able to go the full 15 against the grappling ace. The Russian rapper – I’m not joking, look it up on YouTube – has been able to pick up a couple of impressive wins since then, including former title challenger Gray Maynard.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a welterweight more imposing in size than Cummings. It isn’t his height that gives opponents fits as he clocks in at a pretty average 6’0″ tall. No, it’s Cummings girth that opponents struggle to overcome. Pinning his opposition either against the cage or on the mat, Cummings uses his weight well to wear on opponents. What is surprising is how rare he does shoot for the takedown as he has improved his striking over the years to the point that Cummings is one of the more underrated counter strikers in the division.

Where Cummings has struggled is with superior athletes, an area that has never been a strength of his. Ponzinibbio was able to land at will against him as Cummings lacks speed, relying on his fantastic timing in order to maintain the upper hand striking. Though Yakovlev isn’t a superior athlete himself, he is a polished striker whose improvement from the outside has been more than just a little noticeable. A developing jab with hard kicks to all levels is the basis of his attack. He’ll occasionally threaten with a takedown as well, though those occasions have been more effective at opening his striking rather than actually getting his opponent to the ground.

Despite his struggles in getting the fight to the ground, Yakovlev has usually been a very good defensive wrestler. He did struggle with Kamaru Usman’s speed and technique, but there isn’t anyone who wouldn’t. Whether or not he can deal with Cummings size and strength is a different matter. Keep in mind that Cummings spent most of his career at middleweight while Yakovlev has fought as low as 155. Yakovlev may not be big enough to fight off Cummings in the clinch or in dragging him to the ground.

Even though each of these guys have been around for a while, they still seem to improve with every fight. That makes this a bit of a wild card as each has usually shored up an area of question going into their contests which makes picking this a bit of a wild card. Provided no one has made any surprise improvements, I’m picking Cummings. His durability and size will likely prove too much for Yakovlev to overcome. Cummings via decision

Marion Reneau (6-3) vs. Milana Dudieva (11-4), Women’s Bantamweight

Yet another fight where the loser is likely to end up being part of the fat being trimmed from the roster….

Reneau was a fun story just over a year ago. Making her UFC debut at the age of 37 to open 2015, she picked up two upset victories in less than two months time to establish herself as a fresh face in the division. She hasn’t picked up a victory since. She is now 39 and has lost two in a row. Time may be running out for the woman who started fighting to put money in her son’s college fund.

Speaking of mothers, Dudieva is returning to the Octagon after recently giving birth. It will have been over 19 months since she last fought and there was nothing competitive in that contest where she was creamed by Julianna Pena. Dudieva may have more long-term potential than Reneau, but no one believes she’ll ever become a contender.

Even if Dudieva never becomes a contender, that doesn’t mean that she is bankrupt of skill or that she is incapable of hanging around the roster for an extended stay. A solid wrestler and aggressive submission hunter, Dudieva tends to give up her hard-earned top position in search of the finish which has gotten her into trouble more often than not. The strategy would offer more success if she were proficient off of her back. Dudieva demonstrated against Pena that she is a fish out of water in that position.

Reneau has demonstrated great comfort off of her back, snagging an armbar from that position against Jessica Andrade. What she doesn’t have is confidence in her ability to get the fight to the ground as she has attempted a single takedown in her four UFC fights. It may not matter as it is likely Dudieva will want to go to the ground given Reneau’s abilities on the feet.

Reneau is far from elite on the feet, though she has made strides. Relying on counters to lay the damage on nice and thick, Reneau has shown a greater ability to hurt her opponent as she moves forward. Her jab has come along nicely which she uses to lead the occasional kick-punch combo. It won’t be hard to outwork the stout Russian who is cursed with a meek 62″ reach. Dudieva is sound in the clinch where it is harder to exploit her miniscule reach. But if this fight is fought at a distance, Dudieva is in serious trouble.

I know, I know. We’ve all predicted that Reneau would fall off at some point in her UFC tenure. But I don’t see it happening this fight. With a 6″ reach advantage on the Russian, Reneau shouldn’t have too many problems in avoiding Dudieva’s return fire in addition to her submission prowess helping render Dudieva’s top game ineffective. Dudieva is tough, so I expect this one to go to a decision. Reneau via decision

Brett Johns (12-0) vs. Kwan Ho Kwak (9-0), Bantamweight

Highly regarded and undefeated prospects make their debuts as the Welshman Johns clashes with the Korean Kwak.

It’s a bit of a surprise it took Johns this long to make his UFC debut as he has been on the radar of top promotions for quite a while. He won the Cage Warriors bantamweight title before the promotion took a temporary hiatus. While Cage Warriors went underground, Johns moved on to Titan FC and captured their title. He may be rusty as it has been well over a year since he last stepped into a cage following an injury heading into his last scheduled contest in March.

Kwak has only emerged in the last year as he beat up on inexperienced cans to open up his career. His last four fights have been against solid competition, capturing the PXC bantamweight title from Kyle Aguon and beating UFC veteran Alptekin Ozkilic in his last appearance. Kwak is a bit older at 27, though his relatively late start in his career indicates he still has a lot of room for improvement.

Kwak employs a very kick-heavy attack, mostly attacking the legs with some body shots mixed in for good effect. He switches stances often in attempt to keep his opponent guessing where the attack is coming from. Relying on his quickness to get him in and out of the pocket before eating return fire, he struggles to remove himself from the danger zone in a timely manner which results in him eating more punishment than he should. Kwak probes with a jab too, but hasn’t fully figured out how to use it to great effect.

Largely known as a grappler, Johns has made great strides with his striking to make himself respectable in that area. Though he’ll never be a power threat, Johns keeps a lot of pressure on his opposition with the threat of the takedown from the judo black belt opening up opportunities for his punching combinations. Despite the lack of power, his technique is sound and there is no reason he can’t hurt an opponent if he sits down on his punches a bit more. As it is, they are used more to cover for his takedown entries than anything else.

The ground is Johns’ true wheelhouse. He isn’t an overpowering takedown artist, but he is relentless in chaining his attempts and does an excellent job of timing his shots. Even with the shots, trips are his favorite method to get the fight to the ground. He’s a solid positional grappler and fantastic in scrambles with a serious knack for getting the back. Kwak is sound in scrambles himself, but Johns is on another level. Kwak doesn’t look to go to the ground very often himself, but has shown the ability to create enough space from off of his back in order to climb back to his feet.

This is a great matchup between prospects who could end up making a lot of noise down the road. Johns is the more touted of the two as he offers a better rounded game. Kwak has enough power to put him out if he isn’t careful, but I like Johns defense and grappling to what Kwak offers. Johns either wins with a combination of his striking and grappling or grabs a submission at some point. Johns via submission of RD2

Charlie Ward (3-1) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-0), Welterweight

Why is this fight taking place in the UFC? I’m not saying they don’t have potential, but they have no business in the Octagon at this stage of their development.

It isn’t difficult to figure out why Ward is here: his association with Conor McGregor. His teammate Artem Lobov has been able to remain under UFC employ when others wouldn’t be thanks to that friendship and Ward is benefitting in the same way after only four professional fights with the only notable opponent he has faced accounting for his only loss. Unfortunately for Ward, he may be better known for fighting Joao Carvalho, who passed away a few days after their contest due to the injuries sustained in the bout.

The 31-year old Alhassan has fought a few times in Bellator with his most recent visit featuring an impressive KO of Bryce Shephard-Mejia. He’s actually finished every one of his contests within 90 seconds of the start of the fight. It’s true he hasn’t faced anyone notable, but consistently finishing opponents as fast as he has been is impressive regardless of whether he is just facing cans or not.

Because he finishes his fights so quickly, there is an element of mystery to Alhassan. How deep does his gas tank run? Does he have much in terms of wrestling or grappling? No one really knows the answers to these questions. What is known is that he loves to stand in the pocket and trade, winging big hooks with serious power behind them. He’ll launch some leg kicks too if his opponent is reluctant to engage, but the fists are where he makes his living.

Ward will give Alhassan the type of fight that he wants. Very much a brawler, Ward has shown something Alhassan hasn’t: a chin. That’s largely because Alhassan hasn’t taken shots the same way the Irishman has which isn’t necessarily a good thing. He does mix in the occasional takedown attempt where he looks to posture up and rain down punches. The problem is he doesn’t use much technique from there and often ends up just laying on top of his opponent.

I thought the new ownership was going to eliminate these types of bouts, but I guess I was wrong. Kind of a bummer. If nothing else, the likelihood of these two knocking the crap out of one or the other is pretty high. If that doesn’t happen, we’re in store for some ugly MMA that you would expect to see in a barn in Iowa or some other Midwestern state. I’m picking Alhassan as his punches are tighter than anything I’ve seen from Ward. Alhassan via KO of RD1