Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Get all the essentials for the early action from UFC Rio Rancho, including former title challenger John Dodson looking to turn away exciting prospect Nathaniel Wood.
After a shakeup of the lineup, the prelims of UFC Rio Rancho aren’t quite as appetizing as they were at the beginning of the week… but you could still make a case they are better than what UFC 247 offered. To be fair, that’s more of a dig at how bad the offering on last weeks PPV was. Granted, they turned out to exceed expectations in every possible way to the extent they were pretty damned awesome, but no one was looking forward to them with anything more than a lukewarm reception. Wait… I’m supposed to be talking UFC Rio Rancho.
Some of the fights were shifted around – Ray Borg and Rogerio Bontorin was originally a preliminary contest instead of Devin Clark and Dequan Townsend – and others were hurt by injury. Regardless, there are some notable names. Two-time former title challenger John Dodson returns from a long layoff. Perennial action fighter Jim Miller somehow got buried in the prelims. So did one of the more violent members of the roster in Tim Means. Given this is a Fight Night, these prelims are pretty badass.
The prelims begin on ESPN+ at 5:00 PM ET/2:00 PM PT on Saturday.
John Dodson (20-11) vs. Nathaniel Wood (16-3), Bantamweight
One of the all-time greats at flyweight – a likely title reign only deterred by the dominance of Demetrious Johnson – Dodson hasn’t been able to find similar success at bantamweight since making the move up, sporting a 3-4 record. Part of that can be attributed to him being on the smaller end of the division, though his declining speed has played a larger part. It isn’t that Dodson isn’t faster than most of the division anymore; he’s still plenty fast. He just doesn’t have the ungodly explosion that produced several impressive KO’s in his heyday. He still has toughness for days too – he’s never been finished in his 15-year career – and has improved his boxing technique, but hasn’t fully compensated for his loss of physical abilities.
Wood represents the up-and-comer looking for a breakthrough performance. He’s proven himself to be a vicious grappler, securing a submission finish in each of his three UFC appearances. The Englishman isn’t a top-notch athlete – which is why his entry into the organization went under the radar – and has a bad habit of going wherever his opponent takes the fight. Nevertheless, he’s been finding his way to victory. To be fair, Wood has been making a greater effort to take the fight to the mat with his wrestling over the last two contests, but none of those opponents have ever proven as difficult to take to the mat as Dodson.
Wood is as scrappy as they come and that’s meant to be a compliment. His aggression on the mat has cost him in the past, but Dodson isn’t the type to make an opponent pay that way. However, while I’ve led on that Dodson is coming close to the end of a very notable career, I didn’t mention the names of those he has lost to since moving to 135: John Lineker, Marlon Moraes, Jimmie Rivera, and Petr Yan. Dodson isn’t losing to run-of-the-mill opponents. He’s losing to those at the top of the division. Wood isn’t run-of-the-mill either, but he’s not quite at the level of those turning away Dodson, not yet at least. Wood’s best chance for an upset is if Dodson falls into bouts of inactivity – as he has been prone to do – but Dodson has improved in that aspect. The veteran still has enough in the tank to turn away the upstart. Dodson via decision
Casey Kenney (13-1-1) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (9-4), Bantamweight
Not that many people put much stock in the UFC’s official rankings, there’s reason to be weary of Kenney’s spot in those rankings, entering the contest at #15. After two official UFC contests, he beat true flyweight Borg and a Manny Bermudez who was incapable of making weight, indicating a discipline and/or energy level issue. Yeah, there’s reason to be leery of his spot.
Kenney doesn’t have a single skill that stands head and shoulders above any other, but he also doesn’t have a glaring weakness. Some may point out he doesn’t secure many finishes – along the lines of him not having a standout skill – but he has also faced consistently tough competition on the regional scene prior to joining the organization. He proved his ability to scramble, grapple, and get back to his feet after Borg and Bermudez made consistent efforts to get Kenney to the mat. Getting back to his feet time and again, Kenney was able to outwork them on the feet in the intermittent periods in the standup.
He’ll have to utilize a similar strategy against Dvalishvili. A product of Serra-Longo, Dvalishvili is always going a million miles an hour either in pursuit of a KO or a takedown. He’s sloppy on the feet – though he still has enough power to be dangerous – but his aggression and chin has allowed him to find success in that area, in part because he hasn’t faced an opponent who will make him pay for his recklessness. As for his wrestling, he has had no fewer than five takedowns in any of his four UFC contests despite having a success rate of less than 50% on his takedown attempts.
There’s a lot of similarities between these two. Both are scrappy. Both have bases built on wrestling. Neither are great finishers. Neither are great athletes. They’re about the same size too. So what separates them? Kenney has a slight edge in athleticism and is a bit more technical on the feet. Dvalishvili does appear to have a bit more power, but his struggles to land cleanly make it more of a moot point than the slight advantages in favor of Kenney. Regardless, it should be a razor thin decision. Kenney via decision
- Those who have been following the UFC for a while are well aware of the type of violence Tim Means is capable of. A devastating force in the clinch with a still improving outside and ground game, age and years of wear and tear on the body have begun to slow down the longtime action fighter. He can’t endure as much punishment as he could in the past – it was once damn near impossible to put him away — but it appears he has been rejuvenated after taking some time away. He welcomes Daniel Rodriguez to the organization on short notice. Rodriguez is already 33, so he is hardly an up-and-coming prospect. That doesn’t mean there isn’t some upside to him as Rodriguez’s bullying style typically results in plenty of action. The newcomer can be sloppy with his attack, but he has solid power, can hit the occasional takedown, and can take a hell of a beating himself. Means’ savvy allows him to outslick the DWCS alum. Means via decision
- When he steps into the Octagon for this contest, Jim Miller will tie the record for UFC appearances… again. The longtime vet has almost seen and done it all and remains a viable gatekeeper in the lightweight division. Miller never joined the divisional elite thanks to a shortage of physical tools, but he’s become savvy enough in the pocket with his boxing to remain credible in the standup despite a slippage of his already limited physical skills. However, he’s returned to his bread and butter in his most recent performances, reminding the world what a slick ground game he possesses with each of his last three wins coming via submission. Don’t expect anything to change against Scott Holtzman. The former hockey player has done everything in his power to improve his Achilles heel of stuffing takedowns, but still struggles against those with a deep bag of tricks… someone like Miller. Holtzman does hit harder and should take a decision if the contest primarily stays on the feet. I don’t think it will. Miller via submission of RD2
- While I don’t believe Dequan Townsend is UFC-caliber – I know, that’s a touchy definition – I also have to give the guy props for a quick turnaround to step up late against Devin Clark. He fought just three weeks ago! Regardless, in a division that is especially rewarding to those with exceeding physical gifts, Clark is fortunate to be one of the better athletes at 205. Unfortunately for him, he hasn’t been able to fully harness his prodigious talents. He hits hard and is a plus wrestler, but he tends to fade in a hurry and shows very little defensive awareness. It’s no wonder all his losses have come before the final bell. The question is whether Townsend can expose any of that. Townsend has some outside striking and is the rangier fighter, but that’s about where his advantages end. He hasn’t pushed much of a pace – something that has been used to exhaust Clark by past opponents — and has struggled to stop takedowns. There’s a strong chance Clark secures his first finish in the UFC. Clark via TKO of RD2
- At one point, it didn’t seem far-fetched that Macy Chiasson could blaze a path to challenge for the bantamweight title in short order. Absolutely massive for the division, the former featherweight swarms her opponents with her size against the cage, absorbing their attack with little problem. The only thing was we hadn’t seen her dragged into deep waters. Well… Lina Lansberg showed us what happens and it doesn’t bode well for Chiasson. Perhaps more damaging was Lansberg exposed Chiasson’s lack of defensive wrestling. Unfortunately for short-notice replacement Shanna Young, she doesn’t have the wrestling chops and/or the size to present the same type of problem for Chiasson. Young has a deep bag of kicks, but it’s hard to see Chiasson giving the natural flyweight the space she needs to get them off. Chiasson regains her momentum by returning to her smothering roots against a much smaller opponent. Chiasson via TKO of RD1
- It’s hard not to feel for Raulian Paiva. Shortly after the Brazilian flyweight earned his UFC contract, his girlfriend was killed in a motorcycle accident. When he does debut in the UFC, he drops a very close split decision to Kai Kara-France only to follow that up by getting split open with one of the nastiest facial cuts in recent memory by Rogerio Bontorin. The dude isn’t just a sob story though. He can fight. He’s got a lanky frame that he’s figuring out how to effectively use, is very difficult to take down, and is one of the better athletes in a division full of athletic monsters. Did I mention he’s not too shabby on the mat too? That’s not good news for Mark De la Rosa. Though De la Rosa is the technically superior fighter in almost every aspect, he’s one of the worst athletes at 125. He’ll look to ground Paiva as the Brazilian will throw everything but the kitchen sink at him if he keeps it standing. It’s unlikely to result in a KO, but De la Rosa will struggle to keep up with Paiva’s output. Given De la Rosa’s wrestling hasn’t shown up in the UFC, expect Paiva to get his first UFC win. Paiva via decision