Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Feast on all the bare essentials of the early action of this weekends UFC event out of Vegas, featuring a women’s bantamweight contest with Sijara Eubanks looking to turn away the meteoric rise of Julia Avila.
Believe it or not, I’m not going to crap on these prelims. That isn’t a ringing endorsement either, but in a period when the UFC prelims have been full of recent signings who don’t seem like they would be on the roster in more typical times, these prelims are looking sharp. Most of the combatants look like they either deserve their roster spots or are out to prove they still deserve a spot. Most of the contests are well-matched and the last type of contest I’m expecting out of these are snoozers. Well, there is one exception, but we’ll get to that later. Plus, there is one contest that appears to feature a potential title contender in the near future. As of late, I’d have no problem telling potential viewers they’re fine to skip the prelims. If you’re a fight fan, these prelims have a LOT of potential.
Julia Avila vs. Sijara Eubanks, Women’s Bantamweight
Why in the hell is this fight on the prelims? I understand it was put together on short notice, but Avila looks like legit future title contender. Plus, we all remember that Eubanks was once set to headline not just a PPV, but a PPV in MSG? Well… that might be a better example of the MMA public dodging a bullet more than anything, but it is the truth.
After an indisputable decision win in her UFC debut, Avila disposed of Gina Mazany in a scant 22 seconds. Avila tends to push a pace that tends to overwhelm opponents, but she has also shown she is capable of working at a slower pace, working over her opponent in the clinch or taking them down to the mat. However, Avila’s specialty is still her boxing as she packs a hell of a wallop and throws her hands at a rapid pace. There isn’t a single glaring weakness in her repertoire.
What is worrisome is her lack of quality opposition. Sure, she has wins over former women’s flyweight champion Nicco Montano and Marion Reneau, but those came early in the career of both ladies. Avila has yet to be truly tested and her defense leaves a lot to be desired. While Eubanks has her own issues offensively, she has the power in her fists to put Avila’s ability to take a punch to the test. The issue for Eubanks has been a reluctance to let her fists fly. Against the likes of Avila, she’s going to have major difficulty winning a decision if she doesn’t break that bad habit.
Where Eubanks might have her best chance of winning is on the mat. No, she doesn’t have any official submission victories on her MMA record, but she has an extensive grappling record with a rare blend of physicality and technique. As I’ve stated with Avila, she hasn’t been tested quite yet. There’s a very good chance she could be exposed. Regardless, I’m favoring Avila as every fight starts on the feet and Eubank’s lack of volume – not to mention a gas tank that has been questionable at times – should have the up-and-comer continuing her ascent. Avila via decision
- It wasn’t that long ago that Matt Schnell looked like a dark horse contender at flyweight. After all, he was riding a four-fight win streak on the back of vastly improved striking to compliment his dangerous submission game. While his jab has become a consistent weapon to rack up volume, its greatest effect has been its ability to keep opposition at bay to keep them from touching up his questionable chin. Given power is precisely what Tyson Nam is known for, the former bantamweight phenom should be licking his lips. Possessing a lanky flyweight frame, Nam is a rarity in the smaller weight classes in that he plays the role of a sniper rather than rack up the volume. If Schnell can avoid Nam’s power, — and he’s improved his defense quite a bit — he’s got a great chance of escaping with a W. Nevertheless, I still favor Nam. Schnell has a grappling advantage, but Nam has proven difficult to take down. If the contest proves to be mostly a standup battle, it’s hard to believe Nam won’t find a clean home for his powerful right hand at some point. Nam via KO of RD1
- Is it just me, or is the UFC trying to throw every lanky lightweight prospect on the roster at Matt Frevola? First it was Jalin Turner, then Luis Pena. Now, it’s Roosevelt Roberts. Of those three, Roberts appears to be the most advanced striker, making good on his length to attack consistently with basic 1-2’s as the rest of his game takes shape. While Roberts does a good job mixing up his strikes – his work to the body is rare for someone as young as he is – he throws too many naked kicks that opponents tend to know they’re coming and they can counter them. That’s music to Frevola’s ears. A constant pressure fighter, Frevola’s first instinct has usually been to find the takedown and those leg kicks could be that avenue. While he’s a hard hitter, Frevola can also end up being too wild for his own good, leaving himself open to be countered. Roberts should be able to take advantage of that. Frevola might secure enough takedowns to steal away the win, but Roberts should have the edge in volume and may sneak in a stoppage with his signature guillotine after hurting Frevola. Roberts via decision
- Given he had accumulated a single win since 2014 entering this cursed year, many believed it would soon be time to write the obituary of Bobby Green’s career. After all, he’d already had several premature retirements. Then this summer hit and Green picked up two wins in impressive fashion. His old swagger was back, ducking and dodging his opponent’s strikes, nailing the periodical takedown, and looking sharper with his punches than he has in years. Looking to capitalize on his momentum, Green is accepting his third fight in less than three months against lanky Brazilian wrestler, Alan Patrick. Patrick hasn’t had a fight in nearly two years and is now 37 years old. If I had a recent gauge of his capabilities I wouldn’t be questioning his age so much, but given how much he relies on his athleticism, it’s impossible not to wonder how much he’s lost. Regardless, Patrick’s UFC wins have come against opposition with questionable takedown defense. Green’s wrestling has been more than steady. Expect him to continue his recent string of success. Green via decision
- It’s rare a fighter can rack up a 2-5 record in the UFC and still engender an enormous amount of love from the community. And yet, Frank Camacho finds himself in that position. Of course, racking up three FOTN bonuses to open his UFC career helps build up a nice cache with the brass and the rest of the fandom. With a reputation as a brawler – to which there is a lot of truth – Camacho doesn’t get credit for his striking savvy. Fortunately for viewers, he’ll get a willing dance partner in Brok Weaver. A DWCS alumni, Weaver has shown plenty of toughness, but little else that would seem to indicate he has long-term success in his future. He does have enough power that he could catch Camacho – and it appears Camacho’s durability may be waning after years of slugfests – but Weaver also tends to halt his own momentum by instinctively shooting for takedowns after pushing his opponent back with some pressure. That type of strategy hasn’t worked in the UFC for over a decade. Camacho gets back to his winning ways. Camacho via TKO of RD2
- MMA nicknames often leave fans scratching their heads in wonderment, but Alexander Romanov’s is very appropriate. He many not pound on his chest and roar like King Kong, but he’s more than willing to barrel his way into his opponent with his thick frame like the aforementioned screen legend. That strategy leaves a lot to be desired defensively and his rudimentary tactic of wresting the opposition to the mat and pounding on them until they quit will only get him so far in the UFC, but there are tools to work with. Romanov is a better athlete than he would appear at first glance and doesn’t stop working, even when his gas tank starts running near empty. Then again, few are expecting the fight to go the distance. Not that Roque Martinez isn’t tough, but he’s the exception I was talking about in the opening paragraph. All of his wins have come against subpar competition, either his opponent being very early in their career or very much on the downside, his last two opponents being well into their 40’s. Martinez is willing to throwdown, but saying he has a bit of extra flab is being generous and toughness will only get one so far. Romanov should take this one easily. Romanov via TKO of RD1
- It’s been awhile since we’ve seen Bryan Barberena in action as the scrapper had some physical issues that required a surgeon’s knife to rectify. Perhaps that shouldn’t be very surprising given he suffered the first two stoppage losses of his career heading into doctor’s office, taking brutal beatings in his losses to Vicente Luque and Randy Brown. Hopefully it doesn’t slow Barberena down, though it’s possible we wouldn’t notice if it did as it’s been rare has had an advantage in speed, strength, or athleticism, but you’d be hard-pressed to find someone tougher and more determined. In Barberena’s return, it feels like the UFC is giving him a layup in Anthony Ivy. Ivy is a good athlete with length and KO power, but he doesn’t have much of a concept for defense. Ivy does have a wrestling background and Barberena has never been great at stuffing takedowns. The issue with that narrative is taking Barberena down and keeping him down are two separate things. Barberena overwhelms Ivy with his volume for a late stoppage. Barberena via TKO of RD3
- Let’s make it official: Justine Kish is no longer a prospect. Sure, she still doesn’t have that many professional contests under her belt with 9, but she made her professional debut almost a decade ago and is now 32. She is what she is with only minor improvements to be made. Nonetheless, she is a durable, rugged striker with absolutely zero quit in her. This is a woman who would rather crap herself publicly than tap out. Take that how you will, but it’s the truth. Kish has toned down her aggression just a bit, her slightly more measured approach producing good results with Kish looking to go to the mat more frequently. Sabina Mazo, still very much a prospect, has been working hard to take advantage of her lanky frame by emphasizing a jab and low kicks. It’s effective when she puts oomph into her strikes, but that’s only about half the time. Mazo also has displayed solid takedown defense, but she hasn’t faced someone with the athleticism and confidence possessed by Kish. So long as Kish can avoid Mazo’s lethal head kicks, her aggression should deliver her a victory. Kish via decision