Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Pull out your shovel and dig into the early action of this weekends UFC contest out of Vegas, featuring a potentially pivotal women’s flyweight contest between Montana de la Rosa and Viviane Araujo.
Over the last couple of months, the quality of the preliminary contests on Fight Night events has been on the low end. That isn’t me saying they haven’t been fun. That isn’t saying they haven’t been competitive. What I’m saying is the pandemic has made it difficult to consistently schedule high quality and it ends up affecting the prelims the most. However, we may have an exception here….
I’m not talking about the prelims as a whole. But there is a fight that could have reasonable divisional implications, something I haven’t felt confident in saying about a preliminary contest in quite a while. Viviane Araujo and Montana De la Rosa aren’t that far off from being players at women’s flyweight. Granted, a large part of that is commentary on the state of the division, but both women, with a little more polish, could go a long way to beefing up the division. And here that fight it, on the prelims. I’m not saying it’s crème brulee by any means, but it’s clearly a step up over what we’ve been getting in that spot for months.
Viviane Araujo vs. Montana De la Rosa, Women’s Flyweight
Near the end of 2019, many were looking at Araujo as a potential title contender against Valentina Araujo. Athletic with a respected ground game and power rare for the division, she appeared to have all of the physical skills to do something no one else seemed capable of doing: giving Shevchenko a run for her money. Of course, reality smacked us all in the face when Araujo lost a decisive decision to Jessica Eye. We were reminded of her inexperience and her lack of striking technique, causing a major pumping of the brakes.
While there’s still hope for Araujo, she’s already 33, leaving a question mark for many regarding if she’ll ever be able to completely fulfill. Despite her somewhat advanced age – advanced for a prospect — there isn’t a lot of wear and tear on her body and she’s still very much a plus athlete. What she needs is to establish a foundation for her striking base. She’s very much capable of hitting a flying knee or some sort of spinning attack, but she struggles to set those things up. A consistent jab, simple combos, regular low kicks… simple things opponents need to be aware of so the flashy moves are able to catch them by surprise. Defense is another major question, but Araujo’s toughness has allowed her to hold up thus far.
That may not be enough against De la Rosa. An aggressive submission specialist, there’s no way in hell de la Rosa will let anyone outwork her. She can be outmaneuvered or overpowered, but a lack of activity has never been an issue on her part. In that regard, De la Rosa has taken a more measured approach recently, timing her level changes better and limiting the reckless abandon with which she has attacked in the past. The more patient approach has affected her output, but it has also resulted in her taking a lot less punishment. De la Rosa’s standup still leaves much to be desired, but she has built in a solid jab, which is a good start.
De la Rosa tends to win by overwhelming her opposition on the ground. That doesn’t seem likely against Araujo. The Brazilian hasn’t been explosive on the mat, but she has been quietly effective from there. Araujo may not have been ready for Eye on the feet, but she did find a way to better Alexis Davis from there. Many will point out De la Rosa is a superior athlete to Davis, but she isn’t nearly as crafty. I like the Brazilian to get back on course. Araujo via decision
- I’m amazed Bartosz Fabinski is still on the roster. Not because he’s a terrible fighter. He owns a 3-1 UFC record after all. It’s that he may be the single, most boring fighter on the roster and Uncle Dana tends to drive off those type of fighters as soon as he can. Back in the day, many lamented Jon Fitch for his lay-and-prey style. Fabinski tends to make Fitch look like a consistent FOTN candidate by comparison. Fabinski is the ultimate lay-and-prey fighter, dragging fighters down continually without giving much of an effort to go for a finish. However, the people that he’s been able to defeat have been lacking in submission skills. That isn’t the case with Andre Muniz, a talented submission artist. Muniz isn’t a bad striker on the feet, but can be a bit chinny with iffy power. Nonetheless, he’s unlikely to be fearful of what Fabinski offers on the feet. Muniz’s ability to threaten Fabinski off his back should provide just enough openings to either submit him or take a decision with those small bursts of offense. Muniz via submission of RD2
- MMA nicknames often leave fans scratching their heads in wonderment, but Alexander Romanov’s is very appropriate. He many not pound on his chest and roar like King Kong, but he’s more than willing to barrel his way into his opponent with his thick frame like the aforementioned screen legend. That strategy leaves a lot to be desired defensively and his rudimentary tactic of wresting the opposition to the mat and pounding on them until they quit will only get him so far in the UFC, but there are tools to work with. Romanov is a better athlete than he would appear at first glance and doesn’t stop working, even when his gas tank starts running near empty. The phase of his game that will be tested by Marcos Rogerio de Lima will be his defense. De Lima has been fighting professionally since 2009 and has gone to decision just three times. Either he blasts through his opponent with his lethal Muay Thai boxing skills or he gasses himself out quickly looking for that finish. Romanov tends to get what he’s looking for when he closes the distance, eating a shot or two along the way. De Lima appears to be the most dangerous striker he’s faced. Regardless, I think the newcomer bullies his way to victory. Romanov via TKO of RD1
- It takes a certain type of mindset to be a fighter. Usually, rationality isn’t a common trait. I don’t say that calling fighters stupid. To be the best, you have to believe you are the best, even if the evidence flying in your face is contrary. That’s how Matt Serra became the champion all those years ago. Fighters have to be able to prove doubters wrong. Knowing this, it helps explain recent performances from Cole Smith and Hunter Azure. Smith, owning a background in Muay Thai and boxing, opted to wrestle with Miles Johns, a noted wrestler. Azure, coming from a strong wrestling base, chose to stand and trade on the feet with Brian Kelleher. Though both had their moments, they ultimately lost. Smith is very long for 135, coming in at 5’11”. However, he doesn’t make the most of that length. Azure, not a top-notch athlete, is favored in that department here. Plus, he tends to be the busier fighter between the two. I’ll go with the American over the Canadian. Azure via decision