UFC Bantamweight Championship bout: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson
Odds: (-525 Cruz / +325 Johnson )
Betting Pick: Cruz
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In the main event of the evening, Bantamweight champion Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz will look to defend his title against streaking contender Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. Cruz is on a ridiculous nine fight winning streak against top-level competition, and in his last outing avenged the only loss of his professional career against former 145 pound champion Urijah Faber. Johnson is also riding a nice win streak, with quality wins over Damacio Page, Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto, and former champ Miguel Torres, but if he wants to unseat Cruz he is going to need the best performance of his young career. Cruz doesn’t always have the most exciting fights, but he is extremely effective at neutralizing his opponents and keeping them from getting any offense going, so Johnson is going to need to be very aggressive to try to keep Cruz from imposing his will and making this into his kind of fight.
Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is a very dangerous and versatile young fighter who has fought his way into title contention through some very tough opponents. After dropping his first WEC bout, Johnson has put together a very solid four fight winning streak, using his mix of solid boxing, decent wrestling, and effective submissions to climb through the 135 pound ranks. Johnson isn’t a particularly overwhelming fighter in terms of offense, but he has a very complete game, puts it all together well, and rarely makes huge mistakes. Against Cruz, his lack of experience could be problematic, as Cruz is an extremely seasoned veteran who is excellent at making opponents fight his kind of fight. Against Miguel Torres, Johnson escaped with a decision despite spending most of the fight on his back. If he lets Cruz dictate pace and position like that, he is not going to be so lucky.
Dominick Cruz is easily the most dominant Bantamweight on the planet right now. Since being submitted by Urijah Faber in 2007, Cruz has won 9 in a row against all the best 135 pounders in the world, including a domination of Faber in his last fight. Cruz isn’t always the most compelling fighter to watch, but there is no denying his effectiveness. He is a very solid boxer with good wrestling and a good ground game. No one will ever accuse him of being a prolific finisher, but he controls the action in his fights and keeps his opponents from mounting any offense with his stifling style. He doesn’t beat his opponents down, he just makes it impossible for them to beat him down while he steadily scores points and secures victories.
I think that Cruz is a bad matchup for anyone. The only type of fighter who is going to beat him is someone who is superlative at one thing and capable of imposing his will and forcing his own gameplan. Johnson is a very talented young fighter, but he lacks the one dominant tool it is going to take to beat Cruz. This fight should go like most of Cruz’s other fights, with Cruz stifling Johnson’s offense, dictating the pace and positioning of the fight, and scoring enough points to earn the decision win.
Prediction: Dominick Cruz via Unanimous Decision.
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