UFC Lightweight Bout: Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard
Odds: ( -315 Cerrone / +245 Guillard )
Betting Pick: Cerrone
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In the semi-main event of the evening, two of the Lightweight division’s most dynamic and athletic competitors will meet as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off against “The Young Assassin” Melvin Guillard. These are two of the most entertaining and explosive athletes in the UFC, and the fact that they were training partners for years adds an added layer of drama to this fight. Greg Jackson helped to engineer Guillard’s career resurgence, now he has to help Donald Cerrone defeat him.
Melvin Guillard is one of the most athletic and explosive fighters in the Lightweight division. Every punch he throws has knockout potential and he has very hard to stop takedowns as well. He can hurt opponents standing or from top position, and has extremely good sweeps and escapes from bottom position. The biggest obstacle to Guillard becoming an elite Lightweight is, and has been, his utter lack of submission grappling. Guillard is very prone to getting submitted, and against Cerrone he just can’t afford to make any mistakes on the ground. If Guillard wants to win this fight, he is going to have to use his strength and athleticism to keep this fight standing, where he has a chance to knock out anyone who has to stand and trade with him. If he engages in an extended ground fight with Cerrone, I don’t see a way that he avoids getting submitted.
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone was a standout Lightweight in the WEC and has carried his success over into the Octagon. Cerrone is an extremely well-rounded fighter with very effective boxing and fight-ending submissions from a huge variety of positions. Cerrone is a threat to finish any fight anywhere it goes, but his best work definitely comes on the ground. If Cerrone has a flaw, it is that he is too willing to throw his game plan out the window in favor of wild brawling, a trap he fell into against Nate Diaz in a recent crushing loss. If Cerrone wants to beat Guillard, he is going to have to find a way to neutralize Guillard’s power punching and put himself in good positions on the ground, where he is more than equipped to take advantage of Guillard’s poor submission defense.
This has all the makings of a very competitive fight, considering how athletic and versatile both men are and the fact that they have trained and sparred against one another extensively. In the end, though, I think this one will come down to the fact that submission defense is Guillard’s Achilles heel and submissions are Cerrone’s bread and butter. I expect some exciting back and forth action, but eventually Guillard will make a mistake and Cerrone will be able to capitalize. Cerrone by submission.
Prediction: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone by third round guillotine choke.
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