Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight rivals Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya will finally go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024) at UFC 305 inside RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.
This match up has been building for a long time. Du Plessis irked Adesanya years ago with his true African champion comments, prompting “Stylebender” to keep an eye on “Stillknocks” even if he wasn’t yet a player in the 185-pound title mix. Du Plessis rose through the ranks quickly and earned a shot at Adesanya’s golden strap, but injury allowed Sean Strickland to sneak into a title shot and make the most of his opportunity.
Fortunately, Du Plessis’ competitive victory over Strickland created an easy path for this grudge match to finally materialize. Maybe “Stylebender” doesn’t deserve a title shot after sitting on the sidelines following the Strickland defeat, but it’s hard to ignore a narrative like this when it’s so obviously the fight to make.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Betting Odds
- Dricus Du Plessis victory: -105
- Dricus Du Plessis via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Dricus Du Plessis via submission: +600
- Dricus Du Plessis via decision: +400
- Israel Adesanya victory: -115
- Israel Adesanya via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Israel Adesanya via submission: +2500
- Israel Adesanya via decision: +225
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Du Plessis Wins
Du Plessis is underrated as a tactical fighter. The South African berserker wears his opponents down — or puts them to sleep outright — by pushing a hard pace, attacking all levels, and effectively mixing his wrestling and kickboxing together.
The ability to blend the martial arts will be key here. Obviously, Adesanya is the cleaner technical kickboxer, but that doesn’t mean Du Plessis cannot find success on the feet. Du Plessis can land hard by crashing forward with body-head combinations, as well as hiding his entries behind feints and false starts. Establishing the jab to close combinations could be good strategy as well, as Robert Whittaker found success that way opposite Adesanya.
The counters of Adesanya are definitely a concern, but Du Plessis has the option of mixing shots into his offense. That will make it more difficult for Adesanya to feel comfortable planting his feet, particularly if Du Plessis gets some offense off from top position. Similarly, the clinch could be a good path for Du Plessis, as his strength and clubbing shots could be significant as Adesanya moves to escape those close quarters.
How Adesanya Wins
Adesanya is one of the greatest strikers in UFC history. When able to control the distance, Adesanya overwhelms his foes with range offense, forcing them to shell up and nearly accept defeat.
For Adesanya, this fight is all about strikes up the middle. Du Plessis’ charge comes straight forward, amplifying the power of his opponent’s intercepting strikes if they’re timed well. Strickland did good work with his snappy jab, and Adesanya should look to do the same. However, “Stylebender” could also find major success with the front kick, body jab, uppercut or knees.
In general, it’s imperative that Adesanya slows Du Plessis’ offense. That can be done with attritional damage — low kicks, stabbing teeps, body punches — or with hard counter shots upstairs. Either way, Adesanya has to give “DDP” a lot to think about and prevent the champion’s offense from snowballing as the fight builds on.
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Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Prediction
I expect the belt to remain in South Africa.
There are a lot of factors in play here. For one, Du Plessis is probably the most rounded threat Adesanya has ever faced. The closest comparisons are Whittaker and Vettori, but neither of those challengers could actually damage or really threaten Adesanya on the occasions they were able to floor “Stylebender.” Conversely, it feels like a single takedown from Du Plessis could drastically change the fight, similar to his bout versus “The Reaper.”
Perhaps most important, two are in different stages of their careers. Adesanya is 35 years old, has competed as a professional well over 100 times, and has lost two of his last three. Worse still, he looked noticeably flat last time out. Conversely, Du Plessis is five years younger with about a fifth of the mileage, and he’s only getting better at this stage of his career.
In a brawl — and I expect a competitive, scrappy fight — factors like youth, wear-and-tear, and momentum matter a whole lot. Being the more threatening finisher is equally important. All those factors back “Stillknocks,” who should still be the champion come Sunday morning.
Prediction: Du Plessis via decision (+400)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 305 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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