Dvalishvili Vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight rivals Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov will collide this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) at UFC 311 from Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

Dvalishvili only just won the title, but he’s already quietly put together one of the best win streaks in Bantamweight history. That tends to happen when the promotion is loathe to grant some grinding wrestler a title shot, but “The Machine” made himself undeniable by running over a trio of former champions. When you consider his six-year, 10-fight push to score a title shot, his complaint against Nurmagomedov starts to make sense. “Young Eagle” has been on UFC’s roster exactly four years and has won just six fights, making for a much faster rise up the ranks. The tricky bit is that he’s still proven himself an elite contender and worthy of the opportunity, so maybe this is a case of working smarter rather than harder? Regardless, UFC 311’s co-main event will be tense on Saturday.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Odds

• Merab Dvalishvili victory: +235
• Merab Dvalishvili via TKO/KO/DQ: +1200
• Merab Dvalishvili via submission: +3000
• Merab Dvalishvili via decision: +350
• Umar Nurmagomedov victory: -290
• Umar Nurmagomedov via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Umar Nurmagomedov via submission: +450
• Umar Nurmagomedov via decision: -135
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Dvalishvili Wins

Dvalishvili might have the best cardio in mixed martial arts (MMA) history. His output against Petr Yan was groundbreaking, an extraordinary display of wrestling pace I’m not sure the Octagon has otherwise seen. His kickboxing and grappling are serviceable on their own, but Dvalishvili is champion because of his ability to mix it all up at a ridiculous rate of action.

Opposite Nurmagomedov, Dvalishvili doesn’t have to change much of his approach. He’s still going to be pushing the action, attacking with takedowns, and chaining those attempts into punches and more takedowns. We have yet to see Nurmagomedov’s gas tank pushed hard for five rounds, and Dvalishvili is certainly the man to do it.

The great thing about Dvalishvili’s style is that all his opponents end up in similar positions. Did Henry Cejudo’s Olympic wrestling background prevent the “Machine” onslaught any more than Sean O’Malley’s ranging kickboxing? Not really. Nurmagomedov is a great wrestler in his own right, but the question Dvalishvili imposes remains the same.

Can he keep up?

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How Nurmagomedov Wins

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent skills everywhere. He’s a measured and dangerous striker, an excellent chain wrestler, and he’s shown great finishing ability when taking the back.

The key to defeating a grinder like Dvalishvili is to punish his offense and activity. The entire “Machine” strategy revolves around overwhelming opposition by doing so much, but what if each of Dvalishvili’s engagements sees him hit? That wouldn’t be sustainable regardless of the Georgian champion’s toughness.

This philosophy applies on the floor too. Nurmagomedov has the wrestling and offensive jiu-jitsu to threaten Dvalishvili for shooting too often. He should be look to reverse and go-behind Dvalishvili on failed shots. Even if the strangle doesn’t emerge, he can punish those shots with strikes and win minutes of the fight from top position.

Often, great fighters’ great assets eventually become their undoing. If Nurmagomedov can turn Dvalishvili’s high-pace against him, he’s suddenly left without his trump card.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Prediction

I find these odds disrespectful and unrealistic.

Dvalishvili has faced and beaten extraordinary wrestlers in the past. Based on all we’ve seen, Petr Yan is just as good a striker and defensive wrestler as Nurmagomedov, and Dvalishvili took him to the woodshed for 25 continuous minutes. He was trying to counter Dvalishvili’s activity too, but Dvalishvili is impossible to deter and starts to build momentum regardless.

There’s also a real chance Nurmagomedov’s back-taking backfires. Dvalishvili has spent how many years training extensively with Aljamain Sterling? I would hazard a guess that he’s pretty good at escaping back mount and landing in top position. He could quickly turn one of Nurmagomedov’s best weapons against him, keeping the exhausting scramble going and imposing his type of fight.

More simply: I don’t think Dvalishvili loses a five-round fight unless knocked out or submitted, and I’m unconvinced Umar Nurmagomedov is the finisher to do it.

Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision

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