Following The Money! UFC 304 Betting Line Movements Tracker | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 304 headliner Belal Muhammad when he fought at UFC 213. | Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

UFC 304 is live this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head into the weekend and get ready for Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2!

UFC 304 (Sat., July 27, 2024) from Co-op Live in Manchester, England, is almost upon us.

UFC 304’s pay-per-view (PPV) main card features two title fights. The main event sees Welterweight champion, Leon Edwards, run it back against Belal Muhammad, while interim Heavyweight roost-ruler, Tom Aspinall, meets Curtis Blaydes (also for a second time). In addition, Paddy Pimblett will fight the newly-named King Green, Arnold Allen will tangle with Giga Chikadze and Christian Leroy Duncan will duke it out with Gregory Rodrigues to round out UFC 304’s PPV main card.

The late “Prelims” will feature Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda and Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil. UFC 304’s early “Prelims” include Mohammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape (who tried to get the party started even earlier this week).

I’ve been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 304 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 304 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

UFC 296: Edwards v Covington — UFC 304’s headliner Leon Edwards handled Colby Covington last time out.

Leon Edwards (-259 +3.5 percent) vs. Belal Muhammad (+204 -11.8 percent)

Muhammad has seen his odds shorten over the week, taking him from +240 to +204. The money on Muhammad has also seen Edwards’ odds lengthen slightly. That’s good news if you’re like me and expect Edwards to continue where he left off from their first fight. Muhammad is coming into this fight on a hot streak and seems to have improved under the watch of Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, Edwards has also improved and was able to hurt Muhammad with a lightning fast kick in their first fight. I think lightning will strike twice and end this thing somewhere around the third round.

UFC 295: Pavlovich v Aspinall — Tom Aspinall will want to follow up from his win over Pergei Pavlovich at UFC 304.

Tom Aspinall (-389 -19.9 percent) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+294 +33 percent)

The betting public are clearly favoring Aspinall to get the job done in Manchester. He opened at -198 but has seen his odds shorten to -389. Blaydes underdog status has ballooned from +164 to +294. There’s very little value left on Aspinall now, unless you’re putting him in your parlays. I’m jealous of those who got him at -198, since I think he’s one of the best locks on the card — thanks to his quick combos and athleticism. If you like Blaydes to get an upset you should wait until closer to the fight, since that line is still trending upwards.

UFC 300: Pereira v Hill — At UFC 300 King Green took out Jim Miller.

Bobby Green (-118 +17.7 percent) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-104 -32.5 percent)

These lines have been very interesting. We’ve seen Pimblett go from a +160 underdog to -104 odds in what is now a pick ‘em. Green had opened at -192 before moving to -118. With a fighter like Pimblett, you have to ask how much does popularity count for this money movement. There may be a lot of folks in the United Kingdom hoping to see their man get a win on home soil. I actually like Pimblett in this fight, but not because I grew up in the United Kingdom. I think he will play keep-away with Green and be able to drag him into long (and probably boring) grappling exchanges.

UFC Fight Night: Tavares v Rodrigues — UFC 304 sees the return of Robocop.

Christian Leroy Duncan (-144 -6.5 percent) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+118 +10.4 percent)

Christian Leroy Duncan has seen some interesting activity on his line. He started at -125 and then dropped to -135 on July 20, then went back up to -125 one day later. He’s since dropped down to -144, though more gradually. Gregory Rodrigues’ line has gone up rather steadily. I think Rodrigues is a pretty attractive dog in this fight, since this will likely be a kickboxing match and Rodrigues has the power advantage. He also has the advantage on the ground, but I don’t know if he’ll work to get there. I can certainly see why Duncan is the favorite, though. He’s more technical and risk adverse and might be able to stay out of the kind of exchanges Rodrigues needs to find a finish.

UFC 297: Allen v Evloev — UFC 304’s Arnold Allen fought Movsar Evloev last time out.

Arnold Allen (-242 -3.3 percent) vs. Giga Chikadze (+193 +4.4 percent)

The pubic seem pretty happy with these lines, with neither fighter getting a lopsided amount of money coming in. I think this is a close fight to call and that there is some value on Chikadze as an underdog. However, my pick is still Allen. He’s a comparable striker to Chikadze, albeit with a different style. But he’s levels above Chikadze in other areas of the game and he should be able to get the fight there when he needs to.

UFC 304 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

MMA: MAR 25 UFC on ESPN 43 — Daniel Pineda will be making his twelfth walk to the Octagon at UFC 304.

Nathaniel Wood (-451 -5.3 percent) vs. Daniel Pineda (+333 +21.5 percent)

Daniel Pineda started at +240 and his odds have lengthened considerably to make him one of the biggest underdogs on the card (though +333 is not exactly massive). Both he and Nathaniel Wood do the same things, but Wood does them better. I can see why money has been moving in against Pineda and I personally wouldn’t pick him to win this one.

Molly McCann (-348 -8.7 percent) vs. Bruna Brasil (+265 +24.7 percent)

Bruna Brasil is being faded by the public in her bout with the popular Molly McCann. Brasil’s line movement looks similar to what she had against Loma Lookboonmee last time out (she lost that fight by decision). McCann likes to brawl and Brasil will give her every chance to do so. Brasil has been KO’d in the past, so I don’t like her chances here. McCann should be able to pressure her and she may even score a nice highlight knockout.

Caolan Loughran (-214 – 4.8 percent) vs. Jake Hadley (+172 +8.1 percent)

Not a lot of movement to speak of here. Jake Hadley looked terrible against Charles Johnson two months ago (0 of 11 on takedown attempts). That loss is fresh in the betting public’s minds, but there still isn’t a ton of money flocking in on Caolan Loughran. Loughran isn’t that well known and he’s only got one win at the UFC level (if Angel Pacheco counts as UFC level, that is). I think Hadley, who has three wins inside the Octagon, deserves more respect than that and I like him in this match-up.

UFC Fight Night: Petrino v Bukauskas — Modestas Bukauskas was starched by Vitor Petrino in his last UFC appearance.

UFC 304 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Modestas Bukauskas (-160 -2.6 percent) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+130 +8.7 percent)

Not a lot of change in these lines. That’s unfortunate for me, since I like Marcin Prachnio here and was hoping to see those odds lengthen. I have questions about Modestas Bukauskas’ chin and I wouldn’t trust him at -160 odds here.

Oban Elliott (+117 +12 percent) vs. Preston Parsons (-144 -8.2 percent)

This started as a pick ‘em, but the public clearly prefer Preston Parsons in this match-up. That’s resulted in plus odds for the Welshman Oban Elliott. I’m with the public here, as I think Elliott will struggle to take Parsons down.

Muhammad Mokaev (-162 -36 percent) vs. Manel Kape (+132 +26.5 percent)

This is another interesting line with Muhammad Mokaev flipping from a +120 underdog to a -162 favorite. Manel Kape flipped from a -142 favorite to a +132 underdog. I’m with the public here, too, and I would have loved to have gotten plus odds on Mokaev. Kape is a potent offensive fighter, but a lot of what he does is going to open him up for takedowns and Mokaev is the best wrestler in the division.

Sam Patterson (-437 -11 percent) vs. Keifer Crosbie (+338 +29.9 percent)

Keifer Crosbie — who is better known for being Conor McGragor’s pal than anything he’s done in a cage — opened at +200. His odds have steadily lengthened over the week putting him at +338 and making him the biggest underdog on the card. Crosbie is very one dimensional. If Sam Patterson mixes his striking with wrestling, he shouldn’t have too much trouble here. Patterson also has an eight-inch reach advantage.

Mick Parkin (-296 -12.2 percent) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+233 +24.9 percent)

Lukasz Brzeski opened as +150 and that’s lengthened a lot. He might be giving up 30 pounds to Mick Parkin. Parkin should be able to use that weight advantage to his benefit, through clinching and leaning. Not expecting many fireworks here.

Shauna Bannon (-175 +8.5 percent) vs. Alice Ardelan (+143 -15.2 percent)

Alice Ardelean started as a +180 underdog and that has shortened a decent amount. I think people are probably taking a flyer on her and recognizing that you can’t be sure of much with two fighters who have had very little (or zero) UFC exposure.

UFC Fight Night: Perez v Mokaev — Mohammad Mokaev has seen the biggest line movement at UFC 304.

UFC 304 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the five biggest line movements at UFC 304:

Mohammad Mokaev: From +120 underdog to -162 favorite (+36 percent)
Curtis Blaydes: From +164 underdog to +264 underdog (+33 percent)
Paddy Pimblett: From +160 underdog to -104 favorite (-32.5 percent)
Kiefer Crosbie: From +200 underdog to +338 underdog (+29.9 percent)
Manel Kape: From -142 favorite to +132 underdog (+26.5 percent)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

When looking at the five fighters for each of the past two PPVs with the biggest line movements, the following is true:

Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 0-6.
Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 2-1.
Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-1.

UFC 304 Best Underdogs Bets

There are some pretty interesting underdogs on this card. I personally like Hadley and Prachnio the most. But, I can certainly see value higher up the card on Chikadze and Rodrigues.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the main card play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the late “Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Muhammad 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.