Following The Money! UFC 305 Betting Line Movements

UFC 305 is live this weekend (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head into the weekend and get ready for Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya!

UFC 305 goes down tomorrow (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024) inside RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. A Middleweight title clash gets top billing with champion Dricus du Plessis meeting the returning Israel Adesanya. There’s lots of beef between these two. Hopefully, that makes for an exciting fight, though that’s not always the case.

UFC 305’s pay-per-view (PPV) co-main has Perthite, Steve Erceg, taking on Kiwi Kai Kara-France. There’s also Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker, Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker. UFC 305’s undercard also hosts Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos and Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn.

I’ve been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 305 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 305 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Dricus Du Plessis (+105 -25 percent) vs. Israel Adesanya (-116 +17.4 percent)

This card doesn’t have any line movements that are as radical as we’ve seen in recent cards — nothing has changed by more than 30 percent. And swings of that magnitude have been quite common since I started tracking these. Nonetheless, there are some very interesting line movements on this card including, most notably, what we’re seeing in the main event.

The opening line for this one had Israel Adesanya as the -186 favorite and Dricus du Plessis as the +144 underdog. But, the public has been loving that plus money on Du Plessis. They have bet him down to +105 and he will most likely have minus odds by the time we come to fight night. Adesanya has seen his -186 come in to -166 as a result.

I wish I had gotten in on Du Plessis at +144. I think that’s incredible value for the reigning champ, who is in form and also six years younger than Adesanya (who looked out of sorts last time out and has had to deal with some “distractions” over the past year).

The line we’re seeing on Du Plessis is similar to what we saw leading up his title win against Sean Strickland. He opened as the +130 dog, but then he closed at -108. The betting public have shortened Du Plessis’ line in lots of his fights. Against Derek Brunson he opened at -150 and closed at -220. Against Darren Till he opened -135 and closed at -182. And against Trevin Giles in 2021 he opened as +110 and closed as -104. These numbers suggest that the public have more faith in DDP than Vegas does. And, so far, the public have been mostly proved right with Du Plessis going undefeated in UFC.

Photo by Louis Grasse/PXimages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Steve Erceg (-172 +5.7 percent) vs. Kai Kara-France (+140 -13.3 percent)

Kai Kara-France has seen his line come down from +172 to +140. That might be because, despite his competitive showing against Alexandre Pantoja, there might still be some doubts over Steve Erceg (who has only fought three times in the UFC). Erceg’s line has remained pretty stable, keeping him as the moderate favorite against Kara-France, who has been out for a year and has battled concussion issues during the time out.

I like Erceg in this fight, but I think it’s fair to give Kara-France a bit of a look, especially since Erceg proved he could hang with elite Flyweights, but didn’t prove that he could seal the deal against them.

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Mateusz Gamrot (-348 -4 percent) vs. Dan Hooker (+268 +13 percent)

The public seem very comfortable with Mateusz Gamrot as the big favorite in this fight, despite him making the long trip “Down Under.” Dan Hooker’s line has steadily crept up since it opened. Hooker is a very fun fighter, but he’s been second best every time he’s met a Lightweight with serious title aspirations.

Gamrot is one of my locks on this card. I think he’s going to take down Hooker a bunch and be too clinical on the feet to get stuck on the losing end of a chaotic brawl (the kind Hooker thrives in).

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tai Tuivasa (+184 +18.3 percent) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-227 -10.4 percent)

This is a horrible match-up for Tai Tuivasa. Despite being only 31, he’s been getting worn down over the past few years against some of the division’s best power punchers. He’s become very hittable and easy to put away. Jairzinho Rozenstruik should be able to hit Tuivasa’s chin with shots strong enough to finish the fight. I’m definitely not alone in this thinking. Since these lines have been released, the public has bet Tuivasa into a bigger underdog and made Rozenstruik a bigger favorite. Probably best to look at the win via knockout prop for Rozenstruik if you want to profit off this one.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Li Jingliang (+279 +20.8 percent) vs. Carlos Prates (-362 -8 percent)

Compared to the rest of this card, there has been a lot of movement on Li Jingliang’s line. His underdog status has increased over the week, with the public liking Carlos Prates (despite Prates only having limited UFC experience). I think Prates wins, but I think this is a very close fight. So, I’m a little surprised to see Li’s number go up by 20 percent. Prates’ Muay Thai will probably look very good against the aging and slowing Li. However, Li has never been stopped with strikes, so there’s always a chance Li weathers the storm and is able to gut out a win using all his Octagon savvy.

UFC 305 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Junior Tafa (-132 -11.1 percent) vs. Valter Walker (+109 +10.5 percent)

Valter Walker opened with -115 odds. Junior Tafa opened with -105. The betting public must have seen Walker’s debut loss to Lukasz Brzeski, because they are fading him enough to get him to plus money (just). The public was right with Walker in his debut. He opened at -400 against Brzeski and was bet down to -225.

Josh Culibao (-144 +5.4 percent) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+119 -9.6 percent)

There’s not a lot of change in this line. It’s a really close fight and both these guys have been inconsistent in the UFC. I think Josh Culibao probably takes it, but I agree that with the public that the lines were a little too far apart when they opened.

Casey O’Neill (+120 -9.1 percent) vs. Luana Santos (-145 +4.9 percent)

There was some interesting movement in this fight. Casey O’Neill opened with +140 odds. Then, on August 12, her odds lengthened slightly to +144. Soon after that they were bet down to +120. That spike had Luana Santos’ odds go up to -166. That spike could mean a large amount of money in a short amount of time went on Santos. After that money went on Santos a number of folks may have been lured onto the O’Neill side with those +144 odds. This is another close fight, as reflected by the volatility of those lines. I personally like Santos (but I wasn’t the one who put down a massive stake on August 12).

Jack Jenkins (-786 -5.3 percent) vs. Herbert Burns (+533 +21 percent)

Herbert Burns is just not good enough to be here and that’s no secret. He’s looked dreadful in the Octagon and he’s coming in on short notice, in enemy territory, to face a pretty decent looking prospect. Jack Jenkins was -535 to start this and he must have gotten a lot of action at those short odds to push Burns from +400 to +533. I suspect he’s probably in a lot of parlays.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 305 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Tom Nolan (-1214 -0.8 percent) vs. Alex Reyes (+700 +4.2 percent)

Tom Nolan has opened with massive odds and they have barely moved. This might be a sign that there’s not much action on this fight. Nolan was a big favorite in his last fight, too. He won (against Victor Martinez) but not before getting knocked down. Alex Reyes has only fought twice in six years and he was beaten badly in both those appearances. Nolan has been given a can to crush here.

Song Kenan (-188 +6.3) vs. Ricky Glenn (+153 -14.6 percent)

Ricky Glenn, a former Featherweight, is debuting at Welterweight here. It seems the public likes that (don’t ask me why). He’s seen his +190 underdog status cut down to +153. Some of that might be a lack of confidence in Song Kenan, who has been beat up a few times in the last couple of years. I don’t have much confidence in either of these guys.

Stewart Nicoll (-225 -13.3 percent) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+195 +17.5 percent)

Stewart Nicoll might be getting a lot of local money. He’s an undefeated former XFC champion out of Brisbane. He’s a very good prospect, but he’s not been given a total dud for his UFC debut. Jesus Aguilar has won at the UFC level, but even so we’ve seen his line grow from +136 to +195. Lots of folks must have thought Vegas was short changing Nicoll with his opening line of -162.

Photo by Michelle Farsi/Getty Images

UFC 305 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the five biggest line movements at UFC 305:

• Dricus du Plessis: From +144 underdog to -105 pick ‘em (-25 percent)
• Herbert Burns: From +400 underdog to +533 underdog (+21 percent)
• Li Jingliang: From +200 underdog to -+279 underdog (+20.8 percent)
• Tai Tuivasa: From +132 underdog to +184 underdog (+18.3 percent)
• Jesus Aguilar: From +136 underdog to +195 underdog (+20.8 percent)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

When looking at the five fighters for each of the past three PPVs with the biggest line movements, the following is true:

• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 0-8.
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 4-1.
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-1.
• Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 0-1.

UFC 305 Best Underdogs Bets

I don’t think he’ll have those plus odds for much longer, but as it stands, Dricus du Plessis is my favorite underdog on the card. Plus money on him sounds great given the circumstances around this fight and Du Plessis’ track record of seizing the moment and winning against favored opponents. I actually like all the other favorites on this card. The only other dogs I’m a little tempted by are Casey O’Neil and Ricardo Ramos.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 305 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 305: “DDP vs. Izzy” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.