Miesha Tate has already locked in her place in women’s MMA history, even if it looks like her spot will be as the “other woman.”
It was Tate (17-5) who Ronda Rousey first beat to become the top 135-pound female fighter in the world on March 3, 2012, at a Strikeforce show in Columbus, Ohio, winning that company’s bantamweight title, which at the time was the showcase promotion for the top women fighters.
It was the atmosphere at that fight, and the buildup of that fight that led to Dana White changing his longstanding view about women in MMA. Tate also became, along with Rousey, the first women to be the head coach on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. There was probably more interest in Rousey vs. Tate 2, on Dec. 28, 2013, than any woman’s combat sports fight in history.
And when it was over, Rousey probably figured, with two wins via armbar, that Tate was in her rear-view mirror. But after Tate’s fourth win in a row since that fight, Dana White said that should Rousey win over Bethe Correia on Saturday, that Rousey vs. Tate 3 would be next on the horizon.
And if so, we may learn an interesting lesson about MMA fans and pay-per-view buying. On one hand, you’ve got almost all the elements of a successful major fight. Rousey and Tate are the two most popular women fighters on the UFC roster. Both are established needle movers for business. Rousey proves that almost every time she fights. Tate’s win over Sara McMann on Jan. 31 was the most-watched fight on a pay-per-view prelim show in the FOX era. Tate also appeared to be the most popular fighter on Saturday’s show. There is an established rivalry that people saw play out before their eyes. People know their story and believe they don’t like each other.
But Rousey won both fights with no controversy. She not only won via submission, but never lost a round to Tate. By that standard, the competitive aspect, this is the type of fight that UFC has traditionally avoided as endless top challengers from Rich Franklin to Joseph Benavidez were never able to get third title shots after two losses to the champion.
As far as hyping the fight goes, Tate did appear to be the best version of herself to date on Saturday, when she won her fourth straight win via decision win, over Jessica Eye. She survived a rough early going, but turned the tables later in the first round and dominated from there.
Tate looked bigger and stronger, and her punches had more power. She was quick to credit a new strength and conditioning program for the new sting in her punches a month before her 29th birthday.
Rousey fights are going to draw interest no matter who the opponent is, as she draws from a different audience and her fights are more “events” than most UFC shows. UFC could mitigate things if Rousey vs. Tate 3 happens by putting it with another major championship fight as a double headliner in trying to do a blow away number. Still, Rousey’s most recent fight with Cat Zingano, with nothing of note underneath, is estimated to have done about 600,000 buys, by far Rousey’s best pay-per-view numbers to date when she was the sole headliner. And with movies, media, magazine covers and ESPY awards, Rousey’s star power has increased from February.
The one complaint that can’t be said is that Tate was gifted the title shot because of her name recognition and looks. She clearly beat Eye in striking, the aspect of the game that Eye was supposed to have the advantage in. Before that, she survived a first round where she was nearly taken out, and then came back to both outstrike and outgrapple Olympic silver medalist Sara McMann. There is nobody in the division, aside from Rousey, close to having her quality of wins over the past 19 months.
It also shows the lack of new opposition ready for Rousey. With the exception of Eye, who just lost, Rousey has beaten the top six contenders in last week’s UFC rankings. No. 7, Correia, will be her opponent on Saturday. After that, the highest ranking opposition would be Amanda Nunes (10-4) at No. 8, and Holly Holm (9-0) at No. 9.
Of course, if she could make the weight, Cris “Cyborg” Justino, could walk into UFC tomorrow, get a title shot, and it would blow away all records for a women’s fight. But as each month goes by and Justino doesn’t get any smaller, and with new regulations regarding rehydration going into effect in October, it’s a big question if that fight will ever happen.
And while the odds will be against this happening, Tate will be getting one shot to change her career narrative that many never expected would come again. Given that the public buys fights based on name recognition, championships, having a storyline that the public understands and grudge match implications, this fight would seem to be an easy sell even with that pesky aspect that Rousey dominated their previous matches.
Let’s look at how Fortunes Changes for Five stars of Saturday’s UFC on FOX show.
T.J. DILLASHAW – What seemed like a never-ending buildup of Dillashaw (13-2) and Renan Barao (35-3, 1 no contest) as the bantamweight championship match came to a close after 16 months of the two being linked with each other in hype and each man’s preparations. Dillashaw went into the first fight as an 8-to-1 underdog, and then dominated the entire fight. Since that time, UFC had been promoting a rematch,. The first fell apart when Barao passed out trying to make weight right before the fight last August. The next attempt to put the fight together was delayed when Dillashaw suffered a rib injury.
Dillashaw’s obvious next opponent would be former champion Dominick Cruz (20-1). This should be the biggest fight in UFC bantamweight history. Cruz is the former champion who was never beaten by any opponent, but has been losing several battles with his own body. His repeated knee surgeries have limited him to just one fight since Oct. 1, 2011. In that fight, he came out and destroyed former title contender Takeya Mizugaki in 61 seconds. It was the most impressive performance of Cruz’s career, but in only seeing a glimpse of him, there are a lot of questions unanswered.
Dillashaw’s other top contender, Raphael Assuncao (23-4), also hasn’t fought this year, suffering a broken ankle in December that was slow to heal. Assuncao scored a split decision win over Dillashaw on Oct. 9, 2013. Assuncao was supposed to face Barao in the match Dillashaw ended up winning the title in, but pulled out due to a rib injury. The other name to look out for as a contender after those two is Aljamain Sterling (11-0).
MIESHA TATE – Tate vs. Rousey 3 is her odds-on next destination, unless Correia scores an upset on Saturday. In that case, unless there is a serious injury involved, Rousey would be a lock to get a rematch.
If that were to happen, Tate vs. Zingano (9-1) would be the natural matchup. Zingano beat Tate on April 13, 2013, via third-round stoppage in a fight Tate was winning, and in which Tate heavily protested the stoppage in.
EDSON BARBOZA – Barboza (16-3) took a decision in Saturday’s fight-of-the-night win over Paul Felder. When he’s on, there are few more entertaining fighters in the sport, because of Barboza’s seemingly amazing fast-twich fibers that allow him to throw kicks with such speed and velocity. The M.O. on Barboza is that he looks outstanding, until he’s faced with top opposition, which he hasn’t been able to beat. In a deep lightweight division, his losses to Donald Cerrone and Michael Johnson have kept him out of the title picture.
For Barboza, guys who could be next for him include some solid names, such as Benson Henderson (22-5), Eddie Alvarez (26-4), Tony Ferguson (19-3) and Al Iaquinta (13-3-1). From his standpoint, Henderson would be the best opponent because a win there would put him in the title hunt. But both Alvarez and Ferguson would seem more likely than Barboza to get Henderson, leaving Barboza more likely with Iaquinta or the odd man out in the Henderson, Alvarez, Ferguson threesome.
PAUL FELDER – Felder (10-1) opened some eyes on the Jan. 3 show with a win over Team Alpha Male’s Danny Castillo with a spinning backfist. Although he suffered the first loss of his career, it was somewhat of a positive in that he was in the show-stealing fight in front of a large audience. At his level, there are endless opponents, so the best thing is to get someone with a name. Jim Miller (25-6, 1 no contest), who Felder was originally scheduled to face in April, got a win over Castillo on Saturday, fits that bill perfectly. Ross Pearson (17-9), who lost last week in Scotland, also has been around for a long time and is the type of opponent where Felder could be seen in a good main card position. However, no matter who the opponent is, it would be imperative for Felder to get a win or he’ll be relegated to being just a guy on the roster.
JOE LAUZON – Lauzon (25-11) showed the value of being a bonus machine by being given a spot in the all-important FOX main card opener, a match usually designed to kick off the show with a bang. Lauzon left people with a memorable finish. He was pounding on his onetime hero Takanori Gomi, from back position, until he knew the legend from the Pride heyday was done. Lauzon stopped punching, got up, and walked away before the fight was called.
It was the humane move, but not exactly what a fighter is taught.
Lauzon’s role at this stage is as a name fighter whose role is to either have an exciting fight, and test guys on the way up. As a test, Rashid Magomedov (18-1) has a great record and Lauzon could give a better indication of his level. Evan Dunham (16-6), coming off a win over Ross Pearson the previous week makes sense as two veterans who are both coming off name wins. As far as simply an action fight, Dustin Poirier (18-4) and Lauzon fits that bill. The fight would be a good test for Poirier, who has just moved up to lightweight.