Ah, so fight weekend is once again upon us, and we know what that means, right? No, not another summer hotdog eating contest. It’s bettin’ time. That’s right, we’ve got a reason to throw down disposable income and try to make ourselves feel better about our position in life by earning a few bucks, and, I suppose for some, they’ll be pawning their fiancée’s wedding ring to scrounge together the $5 to bet with but, hey, that’s okay too, sometimes.
Now, if you’re not familiar with my betting strategy, go here. If you are familiar, well, you’ve already made cash since I started writing these for CagePotato, so just listen to my words. And my apologies for not having a Gambler’s Gambit for the last card. I sent it over to my editor too late, but if you want to pester him to show you what I chose for my bets, I went 3-0.
I must disclaim that in 2 of the 3 bets I’m suggesting on this card, I happen to know the fighters I’m betting on. Now, if that scares you away, I completely understand, but know this: I wouldn’t bet on them if I wasn’t very confident in their ability to win their respective fights this weekend. I would, when asked why I didn’t write about their amazing odds to win fights, say something like, “Well, I don’t like to bet on people I know,” which is a complete lie.
The Locks:
Frankie Saenz -140 vs. Sirwan Kakai +105
The bet: Saenz
Why: Did you see what Saenz did to top ranked Iuri Alcantara? I don’t think I need to say more…but I will. Saenz is just a super tough fighter, and I think Kakai is tough, but I don’t know that he has the tools in the arsenal at this point to finish Saenz, and I don’t see him winning a decision.
The Good Risks:
Roman Salazar +105 vs. Marlon Vera -135
The Bet: Salazar
Why: Salazar hasn’t had the greatest two fights in the UFC…yet. He fought Gagnon on short notice, then had a NC with Kid Yamamoto due to an eye poke. However, he is very tough (I trained him for years), and he is very hard to submit, which I think is the only way Vera could beat him. I don’t see Vera subbing Salazar, and I think he’s going to take a lot of elbows from underneath Roman.
The Longshot:
Michael Johnson -170 vs. Beneil Dariush
The Bet: Dariush
Why: I threw money down on this fight early, as I think the odds may sway more favorably in Dariush’s favor by fight time. Johnson has had issues with crafty submission specialists before (Reza Medhedi, Paul Sass) and I see Dariush as about 100x more of a threat in the BJJ department than the two listed. Dariush has also been working with lightweight champ RDA and Rafael Cordeiro on the regular and is a BJJ wizard. Look for him to push the clinch early and push the pace in the grappling department, finding a submission late in the 2nd or 3rd rnd.
Remember, gamble responsibly, or at least have a shit ton of fun if you’re going to do it irresponsibly!
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