By CP Reader Sam Stilson
UFC Fight Night 61: Bigfoot vs. Mir is another top-heavy card that we’re starting to see a lot of on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass. It’s also a card that’s been compared to “a dumpster fire full of squirrel feces” by some of MMA’s more hyperbolic writers. In any case, the card does feature ranked fighters in the main event (take that, oversaturation!) and a whole lot of TUF quarter-finalists, raw prospects and last-minute replacements.
But that’s where the money is! If you haven’t heard of these guys, chances are the bookies haven’t either, and that right there is what upsets and parlays are made of. So join us after the jump to get the inside scoop on a card the UFC should be paying us to watch in the first place.
The Sure Bets
Sean Strickland over Santiago Ponzinibbio at -170
Strickland is an undefeated prospect with two wins in the UFC’s middleweight division. He’s making his welterweight debut here and the added size and strength against the undersized Ponzinibbio should allow him to steal a win in enemy territory.
Tiago Trator over Mike de la Torre at -210
Mike de la Torre hasn’t looked awesome in the UFC and would be 0-2 if not for an opponent’s failed drug test. Trator is a young fighter out of Team Nogueira who hasn’t lost in four years. He’s quicker, stronger and fighting at home. Should be a lock.
Jessica Andrade over Marion Reneau at -250
I’m surprised Andrade isn’t a bigger favourite. She’s 14 years younger than Reneau and is in the top 10 of her division. Reneau is a good athlete but I don’t see how she can win this fight.
The Good Dogs
Frank Mir over Antonio Silva at +240
Betting on Frank Mir is never a fun thing to do. He’s a supremely gifted fighter but with a glass chin and some poor fight IQ. Betting against? Not fun either. Even when he is borderline unconscious he can pull amazing submissions out of nowhere. So why consider betting on him at all? Because he’s fighting Antonio Silva. Silva has gotten his ass kicked badly in every fight since 2011. He’s 2-4-1 in those fights and both wins were come-from-behind surprise KOs. He’s looked terrible sans TRT and his chin has started to crumble. If Frank Mir still can win a fight against a top 10 heavyweight, this is that fight.
Douglas Silva over Cody Gibson at +200
Gibson somehow lost a fight to Manny Gamburyan he was dominating. His only UFC win, was an early stoppage over UFC washout Johnny Bedford. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to lose.
The Toss-up
Michael Johnson at +135 vs. Edson Barboza at -165
Easily the best fight on the card. Barboza has looked great lately, but often chokes against elite talent. Johnson’s had a year off but prior to it looked like a contender. Bet at your peril!
All odds provided by Bodog.