(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)
With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.
The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)
Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.
Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.
Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.
Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.
UFC on Fox 11 (April 19): Fabricio Werdum (+170) vs. Travis Browne (-200)
Jared: It’s getting more and more difficult to bet against Browne at this point in his career. The man is coming off back-to-back-to-back Knockout of the Nights, each one more violent than the last, and has twice shown that he can finish a fight while fending off a takedown. He’s also never been submitted. Werdum’s striking is ever-improving, sure, but his only chance here is to get this thing to the ground early and hope that doesn’t wake up dead whilst attempting to do so. I wouldn’t suggest a straight bet here, but the +100 prop that Browne wins inside the distance is a solid gamble.
Seth: You know, I really have to disagree/agree with Jared here: Fabricio Werdum has been on top of his game since returning to the UFC and he should OH MY GOD THAT MAN IS DEAD! TRAVIS BROWNE IS THE FUTURE, I SAYS!”
UFC 172 (April 26): Glover Teixeira (+450) vs. Jon Jones (-600)
Seth: I’m putting this fight in “Stay the Hell Away From” territory, out of sheer principle. Teixeira is a beast, there’s no question about that. But after watching him get rocked by Fabio Maldonado during the first round of that massacre, I can’t in good conscience tell you guys to bet money on him being the guy to defeat Jon Jones. As for betting on Jones? If I advised you to place a bet that would pay you $1.60 for every ten bucks you wagered, I’d never be able to drink an EXTREME SPORTS ENERGY DRINK!!!1!one!!1! again without feeling like a fraud.
Look, if you really want to bet on this fight, the under on the prop that this fight lasts three and a half rounds (currently sitting at -155) is the way to go. I’d be surprised if this one makes it out of the first round.
Jared: Not only was Teixeira rocked by Fabio Maldonado, he was rocked by Ryan Bader, a.k.a the guy who never even touched Jon Jones in their fight at UFC 126 a.k.a Tito Ortiz‘s last victory. Teixeira hits hard, but so does Alexander Gustafsson, and the Brazilian is way too flat-footed to keep up with the champ. That said, I like the +255 prop that “Bones” wins by five round decision. Why? Because Jon Jones is easily ten times more arrogant than Anderson Silva ever was (I blame the surname), and it’s only a matter of time before he has his UFC 97/UFC 112 moment.
Other Fights Worth Investing In
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sam Stout (-115) vs. KJ Noons (-105)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sarah Kaufman (-240) vs. Leslie Smith (+200)
UFC 172 (April 26): Anthony Johnson (+160) vs. Phil Davis (-185)
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Elliott (+305) vs. Joseph Benavidez (-365)
Seth: Call me crazy, but Sam Stout at -115 against KJ Noons is a downright steal, and even though their first contest was close, I fully expect Sarah Kaufman to walk away victorious against Leslie Smith again. You may want to lock in Phil Davis at -185, because I sincerely doubt he’s staying under -200 by the time fight week comes around (I’m also pretty confident he’ll win, in case it isn’t obvious). Benavidez at -365 is barely worth the risk as a parlay addition, so go ahead and lock that up before it spirals toward -500 territory.
Jared: Sam Stout couldn’t finish a Cody McKenzie in basketball shorts who might’ve been drunk at the time and has gone win-loss since 2012. Noons to win via superior boxing. And as far as parlay bets go, it would be wise to lock down Mitch Gagnon at -285 over Tim Gorman, as it’s arguably the easiest money on the TUF Nations card.
Honestly, one of the best lines I’ve seen out there is Dustin Kimura vs. George Roop-JUST HEAR ME OUT FOR A SECOND. Roop may be one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC, but when he’s on, he’s on. Listed as just a -120 favorite over Kimura, an up-and-comer with decent submission skills and an unpolished striking game, a small bet on a veteran like Roop wouldn’t be the dumbest thing you could ever do. I know, I’ll see myself out.
The Good Dogs
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Boetsch (+650) vs. Luke Rockhold (-1000)
True story: I made $80 betting on a fighter I’ve never heard of during UFC Fight Night 38. I knew absolutely nothing about Thiago Santos, other than he was a +800 underdog (?!) against -700 favorite (?!?!) Ronny Markes (?!?!?!). “There are very few fighters who should ever be -700 favorites in the UFC,” I thought before betting ten bucks on Santos. “Ronny Markes sure as hell isn’t one of them.”
I’m using the exact same school of thought here by advising you to bet on Tim Boetsch. Luke Rockhold at -1000 is ri-goddamn-diculous.
Jared: I wholeheartedly agree with your logic here, as you’d think Rockhold was fighting a UFC newb specializing in R.I.P, not a legitimate veteran who is 6-3 in his past 9 UFC contests, based on that absolutely insane line. Tim Boetsch has shown in the past that he can pull victory from the jaws of defeat, and while I think Rockhold holds an advantage in pretty much every conceivable category here, there’s no way I’d pass up a 5 dollar wager on a gritty sumbitch like Boetsch to make 32ish back.
Stay the Hell Away From
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Kyle Noke (-105) vs. Patrick Cote (-115)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Mark Bocek (-485) vs. Mike de la Torre (+350)
Seth: I can’t think of a single reason why Mike de la Torre has a chance at winning this fight, but then again, I also can’t think of a single reason why Mark Bocek is at -495 BOOKIES WHAT ARE YOU DOING THIS ISN’T FUNNY. As for the co-main event that at least seven people are talking about? I’ll probably make a prediction for that fight by flipping a coin while they’re touching gloves before the start of round one. Just sit these two out.
Jared: Your lack of respect for Canada’s first Jiu Jitsu black belt is upsetting, to say the least. A quick look over Bocek’s record reveals that his only losses in the past 4 years have come to top contenders and future champions, and all by way of decision. Throw in the fact that he’s facing a late-replacement opponent, a UFC newcomer, nicknamed “El Cucuy,” and you’ve got all the justification for that line you will ever need.
And that co-main event you speak of? Noke’s to lose, in my opinion. Patrick Cote may have been a one-time title challenger at 185, but his only win at welterweight was a squeaker over Bobby Voelker back in March of 2013. While Noke has been on the shelf for even longer than his Canadian counterpart, I fully expect him to utilize his long jab and mix in some takedowns en route to a UD victory.
Seth: So you’d place a straight bet on him to win?
Jared: Fuck no!
Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
Seth: $20 on Bisping+Stout+Kaufman parlay
$20 on Davis+Benavidez parlay (yes, you should lock up those odds now)
$10 on Tim Boetsch
Jared: $20 on a Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon
$20 on Davis+Benavidez+Miller
$5 on “The Barbarian”
$5 on a mega-super-buster parlay of Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon+Noons+Roop