(What part of Arizona are you from, Ben? Right near the beach…BOI!)
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
Fresh off a stellar UFC on FOX last week, the UFC will be looking to build on some much needed momentum heading into this weekend’s UFC 150 card, where Ben Henderson will look to defend his lightweight strap against the man he took it from, Frankie Edgar. Will Colorado’s ridiculously high altitude continue to plague fighter’s cardio as it did at UFC 135 and Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon? Possibly, but it’s going to take more than a shortness of breath to stop the Gambling Enabler from paying out, as we’ve landed in the money on our past two events. So join us for a fight-by-fight dissection of UFC 150 and an inside look at how to come away with a significantly fatter wallet. All odds, per usual, are courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Ken Stone (+100) vs Eric Perez (-120)
Perez is a submissions specialist as is 1-0 in the UFC with a submission via armbar. Ken “Keith” Stone has more UFC experience and has lost two tough bouts to Eddie Wineland and Scott Jorgensen but has since won two straight fights. He has yet to be submitted in his MMA career, so I believe Stone will have enough to fend off Perez’s submissions game and win this fight on the cards.
Chico Camus (+160) vs. Dustin Pague (-185)
Chico is making his Octagon debut here and has the ability to grind out Pague in this fight. On the other hand, Pague is the type of fighter to fight his opponent’s fight, which this leads me to believe he may be upset by Camus. Pague is hovering around -200 favorite and I would not be willing to lay that price. I will look for the prop that this fight goes the distance.
Jared Hamman (-105) vs. Michael Kuiper (-115)
Michael Kuiper will be looking for his first win in his second attempt inside the octagon, but he may come out on the short end if Hamman is able to use his size advantage to control this fight. Hovering around pick’em odds, I would place my money on Hamman here. Hamman is only 30 and is a tested veteran in the UFC, I would go again with the prop this fight goes the distance as Kuiper will surely not give away another loss easily.
Eiji Mitsuoka (+320) vs. Nik Lentz (-390)
Nik Lentz NCAA div 1 wrestling should get the job done here. The prop that this fight goes the distance should also be explored. “The Carny “is coming off back to back losing efforts, but actually managed to put in a thrilling effort in his most recent FOTN-earning loss against Evan Dunham at UFC on FOX 2. That said, I believe Mitsuoka will not have an answer for Nik’s ground game and will be frustrated up until the end of this fight with Lentz’s wet blanket routine. Not a great value at 30 cents on the dollar, but Lentz will make it into my parlay.
Dennis Bermudez (-290) vs. Tommy Hayden (+245)
Tommy Hayden had a tough go in his UFC debut and I think history will repeat itself again as Bermudez has simply fought on another level of competition than that of Hayden. Bermudez will most likely be looking to finish this fight and the line is under -300 which makes parlaying Dennis rather alluring. I do not see this fight going to the cards; a prop the fight does not go the distance may also be a profitable option.
Buddy Roberts (+480) vs. Yushin Okami (-570)
Last time Okami was a -600 favorite, things did not go so well for him. Granted, this time will surely be different, with Okami simply out powering the late replacement Roberts and coming out as the winner, but do you want to lay -600 on Okami? I don’t, because there’s nothing worse than having a parlay crushed by a -600 fighter losing (see Jay Glazer’s reaction to Tito Ortiz beating Ryan Bader from the dana vlogs).
Max Holloway (-110)vs. Justin Lawrence (+100)
Both fighter’s are coming off very impressive winning performances at the TUF 15 Finale; Holloway thoroughly dominated Pat Schilling and Lawrence broke out the highlight reel head kick KO on John Cofer for good measure. Pick’em odds on this fight are for good reason and I think this fight will be settled inside the distance. Holloway’s stand up is something special, even in a losing effort against Poirier he forced Dustin to take the fight to the ground because “The Diamond” did not like what he was seeing from Max on his feet. I think that the longer this fight goes, the better the chances are that Holloway will win. Not a parlay must, but good value on Holloway here.
Donald Cerrone (-295) vs Melvin Guillard (+265)
I like Guillard as the underdog in this fight. Having trained at Jackson’s with Cerrone leads me to believe that Melvin has the upper hand going into this fight, considering he knows what Cerrone has been up to while training with a camp that Cerrone know’s very little about in the meantime. Now 1-0 with the Blackzilian’s, Guillard showed us that he has finally learned some submission defense in his UFC 148 win over Fabricio Camoes. The question is: What else has Melvin learned that may surprise Cerrone in this fight? I am not counting Cerrone out completely, as this could easily look like Cerrone vs. Stephens with the longer fighter simply getting off first and winning the fight on the outside, but the plus money on Guillard is tempting and I will save some space for a long shot parlay with “The Young Assassin.” This fight may go the distance as well, not so much the high altitude effecting the fighters (as they are both used to training at high altitude), but simply the fact that they are so familiar with each other’s style that we may see a 15 minute chess match.
Jake Shields (-190) vs. Ed Herman (+175)
I want to say Shields and move on here, but Herman simply seems to be the perfect type of fighter to give Jake a ton of problems. Herman is a strong grappler and Jake is returning to MW for the first time here, so couple that with the fact that Herman may be able to deliver his own Hendo like right hand in this fight and we have all the makings for an upset. If Shields is able to get this fight to the ground, will he be able to keep Herman on his back or submit him? It all depends on how strong Jake is now and this is where I am unsure and unwilling to lay -200 on Jake. The fight should go the distance and this is where I will place my money, picking Shields these days is too risky.
Ben Henderson (-190) vs. Frankie Edgar (+175)
I like the bigger, stronger Bendo in this fight. Frankie may use all the footwork he wants and may stick Henderson with the jad for five rounds, but at the end of the day, Ben is simply going to remind us all why Edgar needs to drop down to 145 and start fighting guys his own size. I take nothing away from Frankie and I think he will be a top lightweight if he stays at 155, but Benson is the perfect mix between size and speed for Frankie, where prior opponents like Maynard had the power but lacked the speed to catch Frankie. As this fight goes into the later rounds, Benson should take control and get the win.
Parlay 1
Lentz-Bermudez-Henderson
Parlay 2
Lentz-Hamman-Stone-Henderson
*Parlay 3 (the degen special)
Holloway-Guillard-Henderson-Hamman-Bermudez
Props
-Lentz/Mitsuoka goes the distance
-Herman/Shields goes the distance
-Henderson/Edgar goes the distance
-Bermudez/Hayden does not go the distance
Bet what you feel comfortable with, higher on the parlays and lower on the props.
As an example, if you place $20 on parlay 1 and 2, with $5 on each prop you should be safe, as this was profitable on the past two GAE’s which is where you want to be.
Again, feel free to share hostility when/if these picks fall apart.
May the winners be yours!