(Damn, Vin Diesel’s acting lessons have clearly taken Rousey’s mean-mug to a WHOLE. NOTHA. LEVEL..)
By Dan George
Let us all gather round, hold hands, and pray. Pray that this weekend’s UFC 170 manages to rise above the level of the decision-filled snoozefests that were UFC 169 and Fight Night 36. Of course, with a main event featuring Ronda Rousey, whose “kill ratio” is 100% (as Don Frye would put it if he gave two shits about this fight), and a co-main event featuring the biggest squash match of the year (so far), it looks like UFC 170 will rise to the level of those 10 decision events at the very minimum. I’m guessing that sound I just heard was all of you reaching into your wallets for $50.
Regardless of whether or not UFC 170 is able to deliver from an action standpoint, it has plenty of opportunities to deliver from a gambler’s standpoint, so join us after the jump for some sexy gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and even sexier advice. You know, because women.
The Props:
Josh Sampo (+145) vs. Zach Makovsky (-165)
Makovsky is a perfect 3-0 since dropping down to flyweight and looked outstanding in his upset victory of Scott Jorgensen in his UFC debut at UFC on Fox 9. Sampo is looking to extend his 5 fight winning streak after an equally impressive debut RNC submission win over Ryan Benoit at the TUF 18 finale. The +105 prop that he wins via decision is a nice plus money option, as “Fun Size” should be able to use his NCAA division 1 wrestling to nullify Sampo’s submission threat on the ground while getting the better of the exchanges in the stand up department. Makovsky makes the parlay at a bargain -165 to win outright.
Alexis Davis (+150) vs. Jessica Eye (-130)
The only thing more controversial than Eye’s decision win over Kaufman was the consequential fall out and NC ruling from the TDLR a few weeks ago. Hopefully, Jessica will not be overly affected by the recent controversy that has surrounded her, but it may be a small difference maker in a razor sharp fight that will be close and most likely decided by the judge’s cards. +170 for Alexis Davis to win by decision is a solid risk if you believe that Eye will be good enough not to be submitted, but not good enough to control where this fight takes place.
Aljamain Sterling (-240) vs. Cody Gibson (+200)
With a perfect 8-0 record, Serra Longo Fight Team submission specialist Aljamain Sterling is a +215 prop to beat Cody Gibson inside the distance. Sterling has won his last three fights via RNC while 2 of Gibson’s 3 career losses have come via submission. If he cannot keep this fight standing, that’s easy money.
Stay the Hell Away From:
Mike Pyle (-185) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+160)
“Quicksand” is a 2 to 1 favorite to avoid the submission game of T.J. Walburger, who comes in as the +160 underdog. All signs point towards Pyle being the right favorite; prior to his 30 second sparring session gone wrong with Matt Brown at UFN 26, he was riding a four fight win streak and the last time he lost by submission was close to five years ago. With 3 of his 4 UFC wins coming via submission, T.J. Waldburger has found success when he hits the mat with his opponent, something Pyle will most likely participate in here. With the likelihood this fight goes to the ground, Waldburger is fighting where he is strongest while Pyle plays with fire and hopes not to get burned. Pyle if you must, but probably a better idea to skip and simply enjoy this one.
Main Card bouts:
Stephen Thompson (-135) vs. Robert Whittaker (+115)
Stephen is the better striker on paper and Whittaker prefers to stand with his opponents in the cage. Thompson should be able to land first from and begin to find his range as the fight progresses. Whittaker may eventually have to work at taking “Wonderboy” down if the first round does not go well on the feet, which may lead to Thompson creating distance and fighting off his back foot on the way to the scorecards. Thompson to win.
Demian Maia (+240) vs. Rory Macdonald (-280)
Not sure that anyone is running to the window to lay -280 on Rory MacDonald to beat Demian Maia given the 2013 that he had. Rory has the tools to best Maia on the feet, but Demian will surely be looking to take this fight down to the ground right away. This leads to the question of whether or not Rory can get back to his feet or whether or not he will look like Jon Fitch did against Maia. Rory may opt to use the jab he found success with against strong grapplers to keep Maia at bay and outpoint the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace until a window opens for him to end the fight (if the window presents itself…cough.. Jake Ellenberger) or simply ride out another decision victory. Rory to win.
Daniel Cormier (-1300) vs. Patrick Cummins (+850)
-1300 means there is no point trying to make much profit off picking Cormier to win against the 4-0 short notice replacement Patrick Cummins here. Did Cummins really school Cormier in wrestling practice so bad that it led Daniel to break down in tears? Or is Cummins attempting to get inside Cormier’s head in hopes of pulling off the upset of the year this Saturday night? Well we know for sure that Pat…sorry… Patrick has upset Cormier, but from the looks of it, this may work against him once the cage door closes. Cormier to win via hulk smash is not available but highly likely nonetheless. Cormier to win.
Put 10 dollars on Cummins to win. Just because.
Ronda Rousey (-460) vs. Sara McMann (+365)
The line suggests otherwise, but this fight has to be the closest fight on the cards based on the pedigree of both fighters alone. McMann is a silver medalist in wrestling, Rousey a bronze medalist in Judo, and both are undefeated thus far in their respective careers. Ronda has given up her back to far lesser a grappler than McMann, but always ends up in the same position by the end of the fight, forcing the tap from by applying her signature armbar submission. McMann, on the other hand, has either finished her opponent on the ground or given the audience a 15 minute wrestling clinic by controlling her opponent en route to a decision victory.
While many expect to see Ronda Rousey’s striking game to be put on display, it can be argued that under the bright lights and with the gold on the line, these ladies will want to go with what brought them to the dance. The fight boils down to what happens when McMann initiates the first takedown and whether or not Ronda counters effectively with one of those beautifully timed/executed Judo throws which finds her on top of McMann in control on the ground. The possibilities when these two hit the mat are endless and this contest will offer the highest caliber grappling the UFC audience has ever seen. Rousey to win.
Parlay 1
Makovsky-Koch
Parlay 2
Sterling-Assuncao
Props
Makovsky +105 to win by decision
Davis +170 to win by decision
Sterling +215 to win inside the distance
Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.