UFC Welterweight Title Bout: Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit
Odds: (-325 St-Pierre / +250 Condit )
Betting Pick: St-Pierre
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In the main event of UFC 154, UFC Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre returns to action following a long injury layoff against Interim UFC Welterweight champion “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit. St. Pierre has been out of action for nearly 18 months, and there are always questions about guys who have been away that long or suffered such severe injuries, but before he hurt his knee he was one of the dominant champions in the history of the sport. Condit is a very dangerous and well-rounded fighter in his own right, but I think this one is going to come down to whether or not St. Pierre’s knees will allow him to effectively change levels to work his trademark ground game and whether he will have enough gas in the tank to control a five-round fight.
Carlos Condit, who is riding a very impressive five-fight win streak, is one of the most versatile and dynamic fighters in the UFC Welterweight division. Condit is one of the division’s most prolific finishers, and is just as capable of putting fights away with powerful strikes as he is with slick submissions. Anywhere a fight plays out, Condit is a threat. There is very little question that Condit is the slicker boxer of these two. The question is whether or not he will be able to effectively establish a striking game in the face of St. Pierre’s aggressive wrestling. As good as Condit’s jiu-jitsu may be, I don’t see him winning this fight if he is forced to fight off his back underneath St. Pierre. BJ Penn looked lost in the fact of St. Pierre’s top game, and I don’t expect Condit to fare any better. If he wants to win this fight and remove the Interim in front of his title, he is going to have to find a way to do it on his feet.
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre is the greatest Welterweight in UFC History, and would be a unanimous choice for the pound for pound throne if it wasn’t for the existence of Anderson Silva. Early in his career, St. Pierre proved that he is a dynamic and exciting fighter who can outstrike or outgrapple his opponents with equal ease. Since suffering a fluke knockout loss to Matt Serra years ago, though, St. Pierre has turned into a one-man takedown machine, preferring to shoot early and often and grind out wins from top position. Some critics are less than enamored of the strategy, but no one in the sport employs it better than St. Pierre. The real questions for St. Pierre are what kind of shape he will be in and whether his knee injuries will affect his ability to rapidly change levels for takedowns.
Long layoff or no, this is St. Pierre’s fight to lose. Condit is a dangerous finisher, but if he has a weak point it is his wrestling, and that is going to prove fatal. I don’t see a way for Condit to prevent St. Pierre from securing takedowns, and “Rush” has proven time and again that once he has you on your back and is on top of you, he is not going to relent. Condit is tough, and St. Pierre is not necessarily a great finisher anymore, so this one should go the distance, but I think St. Pierre will control the action with his wrestling and earn a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: GSP by Unanimous Decision.
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