Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight rivals Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko will square off once more this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306 from inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Flyweight title picture is strange at the moment, held up by the third consecutive fight between these two champions. Even the fights themselves have been a bit odd. Nine rounds deep into this rivalry, “Bullet” has won more rounds than her opponent, but she’s also absorbing the biggest shots and ending up in the worst positions. Perhaps that’s just the reality of age catching up with the lifelong martial artist, whereas Grasso is undoubtedly at her peak and firing on all cylinders.
Regardless of the outcome, this has to be the final immediate match between these two. There are too many worthy contenders lining up, a problem the Flyweight division has never experienced previously! Manon Fiorot has locked up a title opportunity, but Rose Namajunas, Maycee Barber, and Natalia Silva are building up excellent arguments that the division is ready to move on.
As such, this is for all the marbles. Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Photo by WWE/Getty Images
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Betting Odds
- Alexa Grasso victory: -135
- Alexa Grasso via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
- Alexa Grasso via submission: +350
- Alexa Grasso via decision: +200
- Valentina Shevchenko victory: +114
- Valentina Shevchenko via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
- Valentina Shevchenko via submission: +1100
- Valentina Shevchenko via decision: +180
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Grasso Wins
Grasso is a boxer with solid pop in her hands. Over the years, her grappling and wrestling skills have grown tremendously, resulting in a well-rounded champion who can finish on the floor or upright.
After nearly 45 minutes of shared combat, we know how Grasso wins this fight. She’s proven herself excellent at capitalizing on Shevchenko’s mistakes and riskier techniques, notably the spinning back kick and headlock throw. Even while losing more minutes of the fight, Grasso has scored the heaviest blows and consistently put Shevchenko is more danger of being finished.
The best way to keep creating such moments is pressure. Grasso cannot wade forward recklessly into the counter puncher’s attacks, but she tends to land harder in extended exchanges. If Grasso is methodical and consistent in her advance while refusing to let Shevchenko keep the volume low, she’s likely to connect more often and hurt the former champion.
How Shevchenko Wins
Shevchenko is likely the best counter fighter in women’s MMA history. “Bullet” is meticulous in her range control, able to severely limit her opponent’s options at distance and force them to play her game.
As mentioned, Shevchenko has found plenty of success in these fights, it just comes down to avoiding mistakes and making good decisions. First and foremost: throw the headlock toss away! It’s a bad technique! I wrote an entire article about its drawbacks and risks, and Shevchenko continues to cost herself by relying on it. The spinning back kick, conversely, is a great technique with many applications — Shevchenko just has to make sure to use it wisely.
Otherwise, the jab has consistently been Shevchenko’s best weapon. I’d really like to see her focus on sticking the jab more than once and finishing with powerful left leg blasts to the thigh, body, and head. If Shevchenko is in range to score her jab — which, again, has been snapping Grasso’s head back repeatedly in these fights — she should be able to build off it with hard kicks.
Jab, left kick, and reset is a great way to control the dance and break down Grasso.
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Prediction
On the whole, I think Shevchenko is the better fighter. Grasso is a good athlete in her prime, but there’s nothing about her game that I find particularly extraordinary. However, as we see time and time again in MMA, nothing is more valuable than being a young, strong fighter with good confidence.
I expect another close fight here, but smart money absolutely has to be on Grasso. Statistics and trends do not lie: older fighters rarely do better in rematches. Every six months that goes by is an advantage to Grasso and knock against Shevchenko. Grasso can theoretically still be improving, whereas Shevchenko is way too deep into her combat sports career to adjust in any significant way.
If Shevchenko wins, it’ll be a huge testament to her professionalism and work ethic in the later stages of her career. More likely, however, is that Shevchenko still wins a couple rounds but still ends up hurt badly enough for the Mexican champion to retain.
Prediction: Grasso via decision (+200)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 306 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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