Hernandez Vs. Pereira Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 298: Hernandez v Kopylov — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight finishers Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 19, 2024) at UFC Vegas 99 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Despite being an undeniable great clash of styles that will surely be a ton of fun to watch, I must confess that I kind of hate this fight. Both of these men have earned steps up in competitions, shots at the old guard. To pit them against each other and force one into the loser’s column when they would be favored against many ranked above them, well, it’s unfortunate!

The “Fluffy” game plan is no secret. Hernandez has won five in a row by drowning opposition in pace, pressure, and endless takedown chains. Conversely, Pereira is just murdering people left and right at 185-pounds, as the hulking Brazilian has won his last three fights in a combined three minutes.

My complaint aside, it’s going to be awesome. Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Hernandez vs. Pereira Betting Odds

Anthony Hernandez victory: -135
Anthony Hernandez via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
Anthony Hernandez via submission: +165
Anthony Hernandez via decision: +650
Michel Pereira victory: +114
Michel Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: +165
Michel Pereira via submission: +800
Michel Pereira via decision: +1200
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Hernandez Wins

Hernandez is an absolute grinder who has put together a really lovely game in which every one of his skills flows into the next. He pressure boxes well with good head movement, gains the clinch with mean knees and elbows, then chain wrestles relentlessly. Once on the floor, he’s quite good at controlling the head and advancing position, and if his foe does escape back to standing, he’s more than happy to repeat the process.

The danger for “Fluffy” is the opening round. Pereira is explosive and highly experienced at forcing the early finish, which is how Hernandez lost two of his earlier UFC fights. There’s an athleticism gap, and Hernandez has to be mindful of just how potent Pereira has become at 185-pounds.

Fortunately, the solution and his usual game plan go hand-in-hand, and he just dealt with a similar task — a very dangerous range striker — in Roman Kopylov. Nobody hits nearly as hard after their arms are full with blood from clinch work, and nobody can kick well after being forced to to expend all their energy in a sprawl.

The early goal is to hang on Pereira and drain him of all that chaotic energy. As soon as there’s a bit less fire coming back his direction, “Fluffy” can safely handle Pereira like all the others.

How Pereira Wins

Does “Demolidor” every game plan for specific opponents? It seems like there’s more of a flat approach to the fight game: be gigantic, hit really fast, and do a flip … sometimes not even in that order!

Perhaps Pereira’s insane energy can be directed towards a target, however. We’ve seen Hernandez hurt to the body in previous fights, and Pereira has an excellent front snap kick. Is there a better way to alleviate a wrestler’s pressure than to squash his internal organs against one another?

Just a bit of space could buy Pereira huge opportunities to land. If he can start establishing linear strikes like the front kick, body jab, or right hand to the chest, he can push Hernandez off him with strikes and start getting reads on his defenses. Historically, it doesn’t take Pereira long to score massively at distance, so even just an early focus on halting Hernandez’s forward advance with strikes could pay off in a quick stoppage.

Hernandez vs. Pereira Prediction

One of these men will make the other look silly.

That’s just how these kinds of fight go, you can typically tell the winner midway through the first … if it lasts that long. Pereira is so explosive and deadly that an immediately simply cannot be counted out, especially since he’s the outright better striker in addition to his athleticism edge. Conversely, we once saw Pereira grounded by a freaking short-notice Featherweight Tristan Connelly. That’s an old loss and Pereira has improved since then, but you’re not going to convince me that “Fluffy” doesn’t have a massive grappling edge here.

Ultimately, I think Hernandez only really needs a single takedown to trap Pereira in his cycle of misery, and then Pereira’s knockout odds plummet. It’s a lot easier to land a takedown than an outright knockout, and “Fluffy” is gritty enough to survive a big shot or two in the process so long as his lights remain on.

Prediction: Hernandez via submission