Holm Vs. Harrison Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Bantamweight contenders Holly Holm and Kayla Harrison will duel this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

It’s been four years since Holm’s last title shot, a shocking statistic when you consider how often Holm used to fight for the belt. At 42 years of age, she might finally be slowing down, having effectively lost two of her last three … though Mayra Bueno Silva’s victory was overturned for a silly reason. Harrison, meanwhile, is the biggest new signee to the women’s roster in recent memory. The Judo Olympian and multiple-time Professional Fighters League (PFL) queen may face her steepest challenge prior to the actual fight, however, as she has yet to make 135 pounds successfully. If she can hit the Bantamweight mark, she definitely has championship potential.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Holm vs. Harrison Betting Odds

• Holly Holm victory: +300
• Holly Holm via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
• Holly Holm via submission: +3500
• Holly Holm via decision: +550
• Kayla Harrison victory: -425
• Kayla Harrison via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Kayla Harrison via submission: +250
• Kayla Harrison via decision: +120
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Holm Wins

Holm is probably the most credentialed boxer in UFC, which is very funny because she hasn’t won a mixed martial arts (MMA) fight because of her boxing in years. In the cage, Holm is very much and kicks-and-clinch fighter who avoids trading in the pocket. She greatly prefers long range battle of kicks, but is willing to wrestle reactively when pressed.

It’s cliche and reductive to compare Harrison to Ronda Rousey, but like … that’s the gameplan here. Holm wins this fight by utilizing lateral movement, countering her opponent’s attempts to close distance, and framing at the waist when her foe does manage to clinch — exactly like she did perfectly to Rousey nearly a decade ago.

Stylistically, it’s very much the same fight. Harrison doesn’t jump off top position chasing armbars, but the overall goal of avoiding the takedown and kicking her opponent in the face remains. Holm will live or die by her clinch defense and footwork, as well as the simple fact that every minute the bout goes on increases the odds of Harrison fatiguing from her monster weight cut.

How Harrison Wins

Harrison is a two-time gold medalist in Judo who has adapted her skill set well in the cage. Her kickboxing is thoroughly okay, but more important, Harrison has added clinch double legs and shooting below the waist into her game quite well.

I have to say, the primary way Harrison wins this fight is by having functioning kidneys on fight day. I don’t know what team of nutritionists is overseeing Harrison’s weight cut, but I hope they have Ivy League qualifications. From the outside looking in, it would appear to be a monumental challenge to get Harrison on weight and able to perform in the cage.

Assuming — a big assumption — that all goes well, however, Harrison should be able to dominate this fight on the floor. She’s bigger, stronger, and much more skilled in the clinch, which is usually a safe zone for Holm. Provided she doesn’t sprint at the boxer face-first, there’s no reason that Harrison cannot implement her usual gameplan to great effect.

Holm vs. Harrison Prediction

I guess it would be a cop-out to write, “Harrison doesn’t make weight and the fight is canceled.” Wonder if DraftKings will post those odds anytime soon?

If we ignore the weight cut aspect — the biggest narrative of this whole match up — then everything lines up in Harrison’s favor. She’s a decade younger and has the skill and team behind her to practically guarantee a dominant performance. Holm is reasonably tough to take down, but part of that is because of a usual physicality advantage that absolutely will not exist here.

I would wait until after weigh-in day to bet on this bout, but …

Prediction: Kayla Harrison via decision (+120)

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