UFC Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger
Odds: (-200 Shields /+160 Ellenberger )
Betting Pick: Shields
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In the main event of the evening, former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields returns to action against heavy-handed veter Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger after an unsuccessful challenge at George St. Pierre’s Welterweight title. Shields is easily one of the most effective ground fighters in the sport, but he doesn’t have much to offer in the striking department and he tends to founder when he can’t easily outwrestle his opponents. He is going to have his hands full with Ellenberger, a solid wrestler who can get the job done on the feet.
Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is currently riding a very impressive four fight win streak. His only loss in his last 9 fights was a razor-thin split decision loss against top contender Carlos Condit. Ellenberger is a very complete fighter, with good wrestling and a solid top control game to go along with very dangerous punching. He is good at bruising guys up on the feet and in the clinch, getting top position, and doing damage with ground and pound. Against Shields he is not going to want this fight to go to the ground if he can possibly avoid it, so he is going to need to use his wrestling defensively and try to exploit his advantage on the feet.
Jake Shields, who has been a champion at both Welterweight and Middleweight, is one of the most formidable submission grapplers on UFC’s roster. He is an excellent wrestler and his top game is stifling. He is extremely good at holding position on the ground, he can do significant damage with ground and pound, and his submissions are world class. Shields’ problems arise when he can’t take his opponents down at will and has to stand and box for extended periods of time. He is capable of working off his back but he clearly prefers top position and few of his opponents are foolhardy enough to attempt taking him down for fear of being swept and submitted. What he is going to have to worry about is Ellenberger’s takedown defense and power punching, both of which could confound him greatly.
This is going to be a tough fight for Shields, but he can pull it out. On the feet he will clearly be outmatched, but Ellenberger doesn’t often put guys to sleep with one shot, and Shields is extremely good at finding ways to get fights to the ground. Once there he will work Ellenberger over before eventually catching him with a submission.
Prediction: Jake Shields via second round guillotine choke.
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