UFC Lightweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Danny Castillo
Odds: (-130 Stevenson /even Castillo )
Betting Pick: Castillo
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In the opening bout of the evening, well-rounded WEC veteran Danny Castillo makes his first UFC appearance against talented former title challenger Joe “Daddy” Stevenson. Castillo has a versatile skill set and has only lost to top-level fighters, but Stevenson is a very serious competitor who has fought the best in the world at 155, so Castillo is going to have his hands full in this one.
Castillo, a long-time WEC veteran, is not getting an easy first fight in the Octagon. With the recent merger, the 155 division is so stacked that there really aren’t any easy fights left. Still, Castillo is equipped to handle the challenge, having spent the last few years fighting all of the best Lightweights WEC had to offer. Castillo’s offensive skill set is quite impressive. He has decent striking and wrestling, good top control and ground and pound, and effective submissions. His best asset in this fight is going to be his striking, because Stevenson has a very short reach and rudimentary striking, but his ground game is top notch.
Stevenson, who easily dominated season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter at Welterweight, has put together a very solid Lightweight career since then. He is currently on a disappointing two fight losing streak, but he is still a very formidable wrestler with excellent jiu-jitsu and one of the most effective guillotine chokes in the sport. The biggest hamper to his success is his lack of standup technique and his extremely short reach. Stevenson has what it takes to beat Castillo on the ground from top position, the question is whether or not he will be able to get it there.
I think that Castillo is in an excellent position to come out of his Octagon debut with a win. Stevenson is a tough wrestler with good submissions, but his offense is predictable and he will be overwhelmed in the standup. Both guys are good enough on the ground that it is unlikely this fight will end in a submission, but Castillo’s superior ability to mix up striking and grappling and to score points on the feet should be enough to earn him the decision nod.
Prediction: Danny Castillo via Unanimous Decision.
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