Jones Vs. Miocic Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight veterans Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024) at UFC 309 from Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

For a moment, I’m going to act like “Bones” and sideline Tom Aspinall. Focusing on the return of the man himself, it’s easy to forget that Jones is still fairly unproven at Heavyweight. Submitting Ciryl Gane was a great moment (watch it), but it mostly proved that the French fighter is unserious on the floor. Lots of questions remain: can Jones deal with Heavyweight power? Will his cardio hold up with all this weight hanging from his limbs? How will Jones look after a serious injury?

The biggest question, however, is whether or not Miocic is the man to ask these questions. The champion has been gone for so long since his one-sided loss to Francis Ngannou, and it sure feels like he’s spent more of his off time preparing to fight fires rather than people. If by some miracle Miocic returns in similar form to his best days; however, we suddenly have an extremely interesting main event on our hands.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

UFC 309: Jones v Miocic - Press Conference

Jones vs. Miocic Betting Odds

Jon Jones victory: -625
Jon Jones via TKO/KO/DQ: +120
Jon Jones via submission: +200
Jon Jones via decision: +400
Stipe Miocic victory: +455
Stipe Miocic via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
Stipe Miocic via submission: +3500
Stipe Miocic via decision: +1400
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Jones Wins

There can be little argument that Jon Jones is among the best to ever do it. An equally creative and cruel striker, Jones methodically breaks down his opponents at all ranges. He’s also an excellent wrestler with brutal ground striking and serious submission skills, allowing Jones to thrive wherever his fights go.

There’s only one area Jones should be looking to avoid here, and it’s the boxing range. Frankly, Jones has spent an entire career avoiding the pocket. You hardly ever see Jones throw more than two punches consecutively, slip, or roll — the man isn’t a boxer and doesn’t try to be. With his usual reach advantage, however, Jones can elbow opponents as they try to punch him and shut down his oppositions combos by being too far or too close.

That’s definitely going to be the game plan against Miocic, but the former champion can match his length better than most of the Light Heavyweights he’s accustomed to facing. As such, I expect a mix of distance kicks and takedown attempts. Based on his grappling-heavy training camp, it seems like Jones is banking on wrestling Miocic to the floor, which feels like a viable path given 42 years old rarely like to wrestle for long.

How Miocic Wins

Miocic has never been a complicated fighter. He’s a good boxer who feints well, and his collegiate wrestling background has usually allowed him to dictate where the fights take place. Above all else, Miocic is a full-sized Heavyweight, tough-as-nails, and also a strong overall athlete.

Honestly, if Miocic is still capable of performing at a high-level, this is a very reasonable match up for him. Miocic has the boxing to pressure Jones, the low kicking ability to trouble him (Jones hates being kicked in the leg), and the wrestling to deny takedown attempts. Add in a power advantage and experience in five-round Heavyweight fights, and it’s clear the only reasons Miocic is a massive underdog are his age and time away.

Either way, the path forward is clear. Miocic has to work behind his jab and low kick while methodically pressuring Jones. Body shots and combination punching increase his odds of landing, but he has to be wary of overextending and giving up easy takedown entries. The more Miocic can force Jones to exchange, the more likely Miocic can land a fight-changing blow to the jawline.

Jones vs. Miocic Prediction

If only this fight were happening five years ago …

As it stands, I cannot pick a man who hasn’t won since 2020 against the most successful UFC fighter of all time. There are questions around Jones, sure, but Miocic has been gone for so long I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s no longer Top 10 at all. The questions surrounding Miocic’s return are even more serious, and they make it impossible to have any confidence in the underdog.

If Miocic returns in good form, this is going to be a great fight that either man could win. If not, Jones probably cruises to a clear-cut victory.

Prediction: Jones via decision (+1400)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 309 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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