UFC Heavyweight bout: Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos
Odds: ( +145 Carwin / -175 Dos Santos )
Betting Pick: Dos Santos
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The main event of the evening is a big Heavyweight showdown pitting heavy-handed wrestler and former title challenger Shane Carwin against arguably the division’s most destructive striker in Junior “Cigano” dos Santos. Carwin is clearly the better-rounded of the two, with his heavy-handed boxing and good takedowns, but dos Santos’ striking is superlative, so this is going to be an extremely competitive fight.
Shane Carwin, a former challenger for the Heavyweight title, steps up as a late replacement for the man who beat him, Brock Lesnar. Carwin laid an insane beating on Lesnar before running out of gas, getting planted on his back, and choked out. He has been struggling with back injuries since then, but he is still a formidable force who can lay guys out with both hands and has top-notch wrestling that can overwhelm opponents. Against dos Santos he is going to really need his wrestling, because as good a striker as he is, he is going to be completely outgunned on the feet. The big question is how well his back injury issues have been handled and whether or not they will hamper his ability to change levels for takedowns.
Junior dos Santos is unbeaten so far in his UFC stint despite only really displaying one offensive tool. He hasn’t really shown any wrestling, takedown defense, or grappling, largely because his striking has completely overwhelmed everyone he has faced. He is fast, accurate, and powerful and he can hurt guys with all four limbs from any range, including in the clinch. Every other part of his game is a question mark. He may well have great takedown defense, but he has never really been tested in his UFC career. By all accounts he does have some submissions, since he trains with the Nogueira brothers and some other top-notch grapplers, but he is going to be in trouble if he winds up underneath Carwin for any extended period of time.
This is a very compelling matchup for a variety of reasons. Carwin is clearly not on the same level as dos Santos in terms of striking prowess, but he does have one-punch power that could test dos Santos’ chin in a way it has never been tested. He also has great wrestling, although he tends to prefer to stand and bang. If Carwin comes into this fight with the right game plan and tries to just bullrush dos Santos to the ground and pour on punishment from top position, he could very well pull of a win. I think that his propensity for standing and trading shots, along with his back injuries which might hamper his ability to score takedowns, is going to cost him this fight though. dos Santos is just too much for almost anyone to deal with on the feet, and I think he will make Carwin pay for standing with him for even a short time. dos Santos by T/KO.
Prediction: Junior Dos Santos via second round T/KO.
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