Makhachev Vs. Moicano Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC Fight Night: Moicano v Saint Denis — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) at UFC 311 from Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

Tonight’s main event was supposed to feature a rematch between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, one of the most high-level bookings possible right now. Alas, a last-second back injury to Tsarukyan derailed the booking, and to the surprise of nobody, “Money” Moicano was quick to step up to bat.

It’s a bummer that a second Makhachev title defense is happening under weirdo circumstance, but this is still a sweet match up. Moicano is a gamer with a decade of elite experience, and he’s never been easy to outwrestle. He can give Makhachev trouble, even on short-notice.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 - Press Conference

Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Betting Odds

Islam Makhachev victory: -1200
Islam Makhachev via TKO/KO/DQ: +175
Islam Makhachev via submission: -125
Islam Makhachev via decision: +550
Renato Moicano victory: +750
Renato Moicano via TKO/KO/DQ: +1400
Renato Moicano via submission: +2200
Renato Moicano via decision: +3000
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Makhachev Wins

Makhachev deserves his status at the top of the pack, as he’s one of the most well-rounded fighters we’ve ever seen. Obviously, the champion is a mauler with his wrestling and top control offense, but he’s a deceptively good boxer with powerful kicks to boot!

Lining up all of Makhachev’s skill set versus Moicano’s technical abilities, wrestling is really the standout advantage. Moicano’s jiu-jitsu is excellent, and he’s a very capable boxer, but he’s never been a mauler on the floor like the Russian champion.

Why overthink it? Makhachev is very unlikely to get submitted from top position. If he drags Moicano to the floor, he largely eliminates the odds of anything crazy happening and still has a fair chance at battering Moicano to a late finish.

How Moicano Wins

Moicano is a gamer. A well-rounded veteran with finishing ability on the floor, “Money” rides a solid wave of momentum into his first UFC title shot.

Once again, if we line up the skill sets, Moicano’s only potential advantage that comes to mind would be boxing. He’s not typically a huge hitter (sorry Benoit Saint Denis), but we’ve seen him pick apart excellent strikers in the past like Calvin Kattar. If able to work behind his jab, Moicano can really make his opponent’s lives difficult.

The biggest problem here is that Moicano hasn’t been able to prepare a strategy for Makhachev. He just demonstrated his game planning ability at the expense of Saint Denis, and maybe with full time to prepare, he’d have better odds here. Instead, he’s just going to have to hope his defensive wrestling is good enough. If he can stay in Makhachev’s face, throw punches-in-bunches, and force bad takedowns from the champion, an upset could brew … but that’s a tall ask on 24 hour’s notice.

Makhachev vs. Moicano Prediction

It’s really hard to go against the best fighter in the sport right now. It’s downright impossible to go against him given the circumstance.

I don’t want to waste anyone’s time here. Moicano is an excellent fighter and should be in shape, but he’s still ill-prepared for the monumental task ahead of him. He needs something akin to a miracle, be it a perfectly timed strike or banana peel finding its way into the cage and presenting Makhachev’s back.

I’m not predicting any such divine intervention.

Prediction: Makhachev via decision (+550)