Makhachev Vs. Poirier Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight title talents Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier will clash TONIGHT (Sat., June 1, 2024) at UFC 302 inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Makhachev enters his third title defense in undeniably great circumstances. He’s on a 13-fight win streak that includes the likes of Charles Oliveira, Alexander Volkanovski (twice) and Arman Tsarukyan, among others. Oddly, he still hasn’t scored a title defense that feels truly special. His Volkanovski victories are tainted by the first being exceedingly close and the latter being on short-notice circumstance, and he’ll again face an opponent here who nobody really sees as the No. 1-ranked Lightweight contender.

Because he isn’t.

That’s not to say Poirier isn’t a great fighter anymore or an all-time 155-pound slugger, but the simple numbers here are that Poirier is a 35-year-old Lightweight who has lost two of his last four fights. It’s a new match up for the champion, but he has little gain compared to Poirier, who can definitively rewrite his legacy with an upset win here.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Makhachev Vs. Poirier Betting Odds

• Islam Makhachev victory: -700
• Islam Makhachev via TKO/KO/DQ: +275
• Islam Makhachev via submission: -120
• Islam Makhachev via decision: +500
• Dustin Poirier victory: +410
• Dustin Poirier via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
• Dustin Poirier via submission: +2200
• Dustin Poirier via decision: +1800
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Makhachev Wins

Makhachev is a combat Sambo master. He’s quite possibly the best of all-time at setting up trips and throws from the upper body clinch, and Makhachev combines that takedown prowess with a mauling top game. In addition, his kickboxing has come a long way over the years, playing a major role in each of his last three wins.

I try not to be too reductive. Makhachev is not Khabib. There are differences between the two in how they approach combat sports. Considering how Dustin Poirier is Dustin Poirier, it feels exceedingly obvious how Makhachev wins this fight: by following Khabib’s blue print.

Poirier has been in the game too long, and his hips don’t work very well. His takedown defense has clearly declined in recent years, and even if he were at his absolute peak, Makhachev’s takedowns are still good enough to drag him down. There’s really no reason for Makhachev to do anything other than patiently wait for his moment to tackle Poirier and then dominate from top position.

How Poirier Wins

Poirier is a legendary Lightweight bruiser. He’s been in the trenches with many of the best sluggers in 155-pound history, yet time and time again, it’s Poirier walking away with his hand raised from an opponent crumpled in the dust.

Alas, Makhachev isn’t going throw down with Poirier unless absolutely forced. This match up is a serious test of Poirier’s takedown defense and ability to work back to his feet, two traits that have never been his absolute strong suit. He can, however, give himself an advantage — and a chance — by denying Makhachev easy wrestling opportunities.

Plain and simple, Poirier absolutely has to stay off the fence. Makhachev doesn’t have the overwhelming aggression and physicality of Khabib, so perhaps that’s possible here. Ideally, Poirier should be looking to slightly pressure Makhachev to absolutely ensure his own back is far away from the Octagon sides.

Staying in the center buys time. Time to attack Makhachev’s body, kick his calf — Southpaw vs. Southpaw match up! — or line up a check hook knockout. If and when Poirier is taken down, he has to do a better job of working up without giving up his back. That’s a tall task, but once again, the goal is to give himself as many opportunities as possible to make something happen.

Makhachev Vs. Poirier Prediction

There’s no logical reason to go against the champion.

It’s a terrible match up for a Poirier who appears to be on the decline. I have nothing but immense respect for Poirier’s skill set and accomplishments, but he’s fighting an excellent defensive fighter with the wrestling to nullify all of his best attributes. Fairy tale endings to MMA career’s are so special specifically because they’re so rare, and I’m not expecting one tonight at UFC 302.

Prediction: Makhachev via submission (-120)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 302 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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