UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera
Odds: (-400 Rua / +300 Vera )
Betting Pick: Rua
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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will square off against well-rounded veteran Brandon “The Truth” Vera. Both of these guys have some huge wins under their belts, but neither has been overly impressive in recent outings, with Shogun dropping three of his last five fights and Vera losing two of his last three. Still, these are two guys with dangerous striking and versatile offensive skill sets who have proven that they can compete with the best in the world at Light Heavyweight and who have complementary styles that should make this a very competitive and entertaining main event.
Brandon “The Truth” Vera looked, for a while, like he might just be the future of the UFC. In his first four fights in the Octagon, all at Heavyweight, he went undefeated and capped the run with a brutal TKO over former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir. Two straight losses at Heavyweight,though, sent him down to 205, and unfortunately he has been unable to recapture the magic of that first run. Vera has very good Muay Thai and an underrated ground game, but his career has been marred by inconsistent and uninspired performances. Against Shogun he is almost certainly going to be at a disadvantage in terms of punching power and probably striking technique as well, but Shogun has shown that he can be taken down and controlled. If Vera wants to avoid another costly loss, he might want to look to use his long reach to keep Shogun at bay and try to set up some takedowns to score points and neutralize Rua’s offense a bit.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, the former Light Heavyweight champion, is without a doubt one of the most effective strikers in the 205 pound division. A Muay Thai expert with great punches and kicks to go along with a dominant clinch game, Shogun is capable of putting a hurt on anyone willing to stand and let him work his game plan. He actually has very underrated jiu jitsu as well, but against a grappler like Vera I don’t see him being able to work effectively off his back. Shogun’s strategy should be what it always is: keep the fight standing and out strike his opponent. I don’t see any area of a kickboxing fight where Vera really has an edge over Shogun outside of reach. Shogun is the crisper, more accurate, and more powerful striker of the two, and should have more than enough tools in his belt to win this fight on his feet.
Truth be told, this seems like a bit of a mismatch. This fight is only happening because Shogun turned down a fight with Glover Teixeira, whose combination of relatively small name recognition and relatively huge punching ability made him an unattractive prospect. Vera has name recognition because of his big wins over the likes of Frank Mir, but he is not the same fighter who looked like such a phenom early in his career. Vera will try to strike with Shogun, and he will get out struck badly. I don’t like his chances of lasting a full three rounds against the kind of power Shogun brings to the table. Shogun by T/KO.
Prediction: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by third round T/KO.
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