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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight grapplers Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie will duel this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at UFC 310 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What is happening? Why is the Flat Earth Fighting Championship taking place on a pay-per-view (PPV) event? We’re snubbing Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev so that we can test out The Gracie Experiment in 2024? Make it make sense! There’s no reason Gracie should be fighting ranked opposition with a 1-2 UFC record spread across five years on the roster.

This is a baffling match up placed bafflingly high on the card. It’s the best evidence of the year that UFC matchmakers don’t know their ass from their elbows. Nevertheless, the fight could still be reasonably fun spectacle … if you can ignore all the weirdness.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Mitchell vs. Gracie Betting Odds

Bryce Mitchell victory: -700
Bryce Mitchell via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Bryce Mitchell via submission: TBD
Bryce Mitchell via decision: TBD
Kron Gracie victory: +500
Kron Gracie via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Kron Gracie via submission: TBD
Kron Gracie via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Mitchell Wins

It’s been a year since “Thug Nasty” was banished to the shadow realm by Josh Emmett in one of 2023’s gnarliest knockouts. Surely, a bit of time to heal was a wise decision. When at his best, Mitchell is one of his division’s best grapplers, a strong chain wrestler, and a deceptively solid Southpaw kickboxer to boot.

This fight favors Mitchell to such a degree that the wide odds feel too close. He is the much better striker and wrestler. Even Gracie’s usual advantage on the floor is called into question. Sure, Kron would wash Mitchell in a no-gi grappling match, but is he likely to submit Mitchell from his back while getting punched in the face? Charles Jourdain didn’t have any trouble with the Gracie guard, after all.

Realistically, Mitchell can beat up Gracie on the feet or smash him on the floor. Some combination of the two feels like the best bet: land some big shots to convince Gracie to pull guard, then follow him to the floor and continue to pile on the damage.

How Gracie Wins

For a moment, Gracie’s game was interesting. Aggressive boxing and body shots paired with world-class jiu-jitsu is not a combination we see often. However, it quickly became apparent that Gracie has very little in the way of footwork or wrestling, meaning he’s fairly easy to strand at range and walk into counters.

There is one thing going for Gracie here: Mitchell might engage him willingly in the grappling, which at least gives him a chance. Seeing as his only opportunity to win this fight is on the floor, absolutely selling out for the takedown is probably his best bet. A relentless takedown assault to start the fight can almost guarantee Gracie either gains top position or forces Mitchell to reverse him and fall to the floor too.

The problem with Gracie’s previous box-into-guard pull approach is that he’s usually beaten up by the time any grappling occurs and is less dangerous as a result. If he immediately forces the grappling, he’ll at least have his senses while trying to make the unlikely happen.

Mitchell vs. Gracie Prediction

My thoughts on who wins this fight and the match up as a whole should be abundantly clear by now. Conspiracy theories aside, Mitchell is an actual MMA fighter of the modern age. Gracie is relic whose approach to the fight game was outdated by 1998.

The most likely outcome is obvious.

Prediction: Mitchell via decision