Mike Ricci vs. Colin Fletcher
Ricci may be moving back down to the lightweight division, but Fletcher is one of the larger lightweights with a significant reach advantage. Essentially, Ricci will be facing a same problem as he did when he fought Colten Smith; avoid the going to the ground with the larger fighter. Fletcher doesn’t possess equal wrestling skills as Colten Smith, but his Jiu-Jitsu is more impressive, so instead of holding Ricci down for three rounds, Fletcher will be looking for a submission opening. Ricci will have the striking advantage, but he’ll have to get on the inside of Fletcher’s reach. Instead of a traditional wrestling takedown, Fletcher will look to clinch and try to trip the leg to get this fight he’ll have to be careful not to close the distance when his opponent is also coming forward. In three rounds, I find it more likely that Freak show can get Ricci down and find a submission opening, rather than suffer a KO.
Pick : Colin Fletcher
Nick Ring vs. Chris Camozzi
It’s true that Ring has a few controversial wins on his recond, but they were against respectable opponents, and it wasn’t as if he was absolutely dominated in those fights. Camozzi on the other hand, was clearly losing to Nick Catone for over two rounds, but a cut that Catone had sustained caused the ref to stop the fight, which awarded the win to Camozzi. His win over Luiz Cane had me thinking that perhaps I was too critical of his skills, but part of me still credits that victory to Cane’s lack of conditioning and not necessarily Camozzi’s exceptional skill. Whether both fighters look their best or their worst, I see the majority of skillsets laying with Ring. It may be another controversial win, but it will be a win nonetheless.
Pick : Nick Ring
Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt
Marquardt didn’t look like the same fighter that KO’d Tyrone Woodley in his fight with Tarec Saffiedine. Whether it was bad game planning or a harsh weight cut, I’m extremely hesitant to put my confidence in the former Strikeforce champ. Ellenberger on the the other hand, has had a constant performance in nearly all of his fights. Even in his loss to Martin Kampmann, Ellenberger completely dominated the Danish kick boxer, and nearly finished the fight in the second round. Kampmann made a strong comeback in the second, but still many fans protested the possible early stoppage. Even Dana White was one of those who complained that the fight was stopped too early. Ellenberger is now only a wrestler, he has developed proficient boxing. Now it may not compare to the kickboxing of Marquardt, but by mixing up his striking and wrestling, Ellenberger will have enough tools to win a close decision.
Pick : Jake Ellenberger
Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks
The top two welterweights behind GSP are squaring off, and damn this is a tough fight to call. Condit will have the superior technical striking and Jiu-Jitsu, with Hendricks having better wrestling and a clear advantage in knockout power. Neither fighter seems to have a cardio problem, so this fight could play out multiple ways. Condit could always use his footwork and reach to out strike Hendricks for three rounds, or he could be on the wrong side of a crippling left hand, which could end the fight in under a minute. I don’t see Hendricks getting caught with a head kick or flying knee, and like Rory MacDonald and GSP, he can utilize his wrestling to control Condit for multiple rounds. Bottom line, I see Condit as a slightly more well rounded Martin Kampmann, and we all know what Hendricks did to the Hitman. Condit will be guessing whether he has to stuff a takedown, or be on the lookout for the left hand, and this will frustrate him and slow his combinations. I don’t’ believe Condit will get finished, but Bigg Rigg will pull off a close decision win.
Pick : Johny Hendricks
George St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz
As much as some fans despise Diaz, you have to admit that he’s extremely talented. However, if I had to put money on one fighter to win, it would be GSP. If Diaz tries the same strategy he utilized against Carlos Condit, he will get annihilated by the champ. For every split second Diaz drops his hands, GSP will catch him with his long jab, the same jab that made Josh Koscheck’s eye swell up to the size of a grape fruit. The cardio of Diaz has always been on of his strongest weapons, but against fighters with exceptional cardio, his still possibly superior conditioning, gives him little edge if any. Sean Sherk and Carlos Condit had no issue fading in their fight with Diaz, which gave him no real advantage. Also the Jiu-Jitsu and boxing of Diaz are some of his more utilized tools in his arsenal, but which the wrestling of GSP, and the distance he chooses to fight at, I doubt that Diaz will be able to capitalize. In this fight, Diaz’s strongest attributes simply won’t be enough to dethrone the Canadian, and the champ will ground out another unanimous decision.
Pick: George St-Pierre
Quick Picks
George Roop > Reuben Duran
T.J. Dillashaw > Issei Tamura
Rick Story > Quinn Mulhern
John Makdessi < Daron Cruickshank
Dan Miller < Jordan Mein
Antonio Carvalho > Darren Elkins
Patrick Cote < Bobby Voelker
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek