Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint-Denis will collide TONIGHT (Sat., Sept. 28, 2024) at UFC Paris inside Accor Arena in Paris, France.
“Money” Moicano is in the midst of a Lightweight resurgence. The former Featherweight contender initially struggled to make waves at 155 pounds, coming up short to the likes of Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos. Since then, however, he’s put together an excellent three-fight win streak with a pair of great finishes, reasserting himself into the mix. Meanwhile, Benoit Saint-Denis sucks now. That’s how it works in MMA: if a fighter loses to a long-time contender and championship-calibre fighter, he got fraud-checked! Saint-Denis’ first Lightweight loss came at the fists of Dustin Poirier back in March cost him a title shot, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to count out the 28-year-old finisher.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Moicano vs. Saint Denis Betting Odds
- Renato Moicano victory: +240
- Renato Moicano via TKO/KO/DQ: +1400
- Renato Moicano via submission: +350
- Renato Moicano via decision: +1100
- Benoit Saint Denis victory: -298
- Benoit Saint Denis via TKO/KO/DQ: -110
- Benoit Saint Denis via submission: +350
- Benoit Saint Denis via decision: +700
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Moicano Wins
Moicano has settled nicely into the ultra game veteran role. His best asset remains his jiu-jitsu, but Moicano is a very capable wrestler, powerful kicker, and has an excellent jab to boot.
At a minimum, the start of this fight is going to be difficult for Moicano. He’s facing a significant athleticism hill to climb. In all the early exchanges, whether stand up or wrestling, the speed and power of Saint-Denis is going to be an issue. Fortunately, Poirier showed that it can be outlasted, and Moicano is no stranger to a comeback win.
To get there, Moicano really has to address Saint-Denis’ powerful left kick. It’s a staple of his offense, and it really lets him begin the process of running over his opponents. Moicano has to stop that snowball before it starts rolling, either by blocking it with knee — cross-checking could be a good option — or avoiding it entirely.
In general, I think Moicano should embrace the grappling battle, even if he’s taken down early. Moicano has the jiu-jitsu prowess to survive against anyone on the floor, and he can encourage Saint-Denis to engage him there early by shooting his own takedowns and chaining shots.
How Saint-Denis Wins
Saint-Denis is a juggernaut. The French prospect hurls himself at his opposition, seeking to overwhelm opponents with an unending barrage of power punches, left kicks, and takedowns. He slowed badly against Poirier, but it remains to be seen if that can truly be blamed on a staph infection.
Prior to that loss, “God Of War” showed solid conditioning despite his lunatic pacing.
Saint-Denis’ best path to victory in this fight is on the feet, as Moicano is 35 years old and has been stopped by strikes on three separate occasions. Saint-Denis, conversely, is only growing more dangerous and varied as a striker. His wrestling threat helps him a lot in that realm, but if he does shoot, the overall focus should be on landing heavy strikes as Moicano works back to his feet.
Trading submissions with Moicano doesn’t seem like a longterm path to success. Hitting him in the face repeatedly, however, could see Saint-Denis pick up both halves of his paycheck early.
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Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Moicano vs. Saint-Denis Prediction
The path to victory is clear for both, but a Saint-Denis finish feels far more likely.
Saint-Denis faced too much criticism after his Poirier loss. Staph aside, he was beating the absolute crap out of “The Diamond” for almost every second of that fight until he ran out of gas. That’s a fixable flaw. Moicano is plenty tough, but he’s not as durable or dangerous in a firefight as Poirier. Unlike in his recent bouts versus Drew Dober or Jalin Turner, it doesn’t feel like his grappling can bail him out of losing the stand up either.
I think Saint-Denis starts hot and returns to the win column with authority.
Prediction: Saint-Denis via knockout (-110)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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