Namajunas Vs. Cortez Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC Fight Night: Ribas v Namajunas — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Flyweight contenders Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez will clash TONIGHT (Sat., July 13, 2024) at UFC Denver inside Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

Earlier this year, Namajunas officially jumped to 125-pounds by taking a clear-cut decision win over veteran Amanda Ribas. Already, “Thug Rose” finds herself in the immediate title mix, and if Valentina Shevchenko continues to be picky about the location of her trilogy match up versus Alexa Grasso, Namajunas might just swoop in with a victory here! Cortez, meanwhile, is filling in for the injured Maycee Barber. Undefeated (5-0) in the UFC, Cortez will try to jump from ranked prospect to bonafide contender with a short-notice victory over the former champion.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Namajunas vs. Cortez Betting Odds

Rose Namajunas victory: -218
Rose Namajunas via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
Rose Namajunas via submission: +800
Rose Namajunas via decision: +110
Tracy Cortez victory: +180
Tracy Cortez via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
Tracy Cortez via submission: +1400
Tracy Cortez via decision: +240
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Namajunas Wins

Namajunas is a special talent. It was obvious from early in her career, but she went beyond raw physical gifts by developing into one of the best boxers in the history of women’s MMA. At 32 years of age, Namajunas is now a true veteran of the sport, looking to build a third title reign.

Namajunas’ advantage here is really obvious. Cortez is a pretty clean kickboxer by divisional standards, but Namajunas moves more efficiently and builds better combinations. She’s also quite difficult to take down, which tends to be Cortez’s go-to solution if the kickboxing starts to get iffy.

Beyond that, Namajunas should be better prepared. She’s undergone an entire camp for this fight, whereas Cortez just accepted a couple weeks ago. If Namajunas keeps her feet moving and lets her hands fly, she should be able to set the pace and really dictate where the fight takes place.

How Cortez Wins

Cortez is a well-rounded and composed fighter. She plays it smart and has the ability to take the fight to her opponent’s weaknesses, wrestling or playing the distance striking game depending on what best fits the style match up.

In this case, the choice is clear: wrestling is where it’s at! Cortez is a big Flyweight, and Namajunas has struggled with raw physicality in the past. Even in Namajunas’ last bout, she lost a couple rounds due to the ground control and pressure of Ribas. Assuming Cortez is in good shape — does she have any chance at all if not? — embracing the wrestling grind is the path here.

The important part of that strategy is closing the distance before trying to wrestle. Cortez strikes well and can compete on the feet. If she can earn Namajunas’ respect, cut off the cage a bit, then hustle hard for the takedown, Cortez gives herself a solid chance at grinding down the former champion.

Namajunas vs. Cortez Prediction

“Thug Rose” on short-notice is a tall task.

Cortez is a quality contender, and I’m far from sold on Namajunas as a true Flyweight title threat. Given a full camp, I think those odds are much closer to a pick ‘em. On short-notice, however, Cortez doesn’t have any standout area that really feels better than Namajunas. She’s going to have to win via grit and pace, which just doesn’t seem likely with minimal preparation.

More likely, Namajunas’ hands lead her to another competitive decision win.

Prediction: Namajunas via decision (+110)