Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Rose Namajunas vs. Amanda Ribas will battle TONIGHT (Sat., March 23, 2024) at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 89.
Namajunas’ career is in a delicate position.
The former champion enters this main event spotlight having lost two straight. She’s yet to score a victory at 125 pounds, but she has another chance here to introduce herself into the Flyweight Top 10. Ribas, meanwhile, has been bouncing between 115- and 125-pounds for awhile now. She’s climbed the ladder in both divisions, but the elite contenders continue to prevent her from going on any kind of title run. Perhaps that trend can change here if she takes out one of the most decorated female fighters in UFC history?
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Rose Namajunas Vs. Amanda Ribas Betting Odds
- Rose Namajunas victory: -225
- Rose Namajunas via TKO/KO/DQ: +140
- Rose Namajunas via submission: +800
- Rose Namajunas via decision: +250
- Amanda Ribas victory: +165
- Amanda Ribas via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
- Amanda Ribas via submission: +600
- Amanda Ribas via decision: +450
- Draw: +5000
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How Namajunas Wins
“Thug Rose” is a two-time UFC Strawweight champion with multiple title defenses for a reason. Provided she’s zoned in on fight night, Namajunas is likely the best boxer in women’s MMA, and she at least demonstrated in that awful rematch vs. Carla Esparza that her takedown defense is very good as well.
Namajunas’ path to victory is simple: “Thug Rose” can crack. She’s one of relatively few smaller women who are genuine knockout threats, particularly with her hands. Beyond simply having power, Namajunas’ foot work and setups are genuinely very good by any standard, which is why she’s consistently able to landing cracking shots. If Namajunas lands to the chin half as often as she did against Manon Fiorot (a more accomplished Flyweight overall), Ribas is going to hit the floor.
To accomplish that goal, I’d like to see Namajunas moving her feet and drawing Ribas to her. The Brazilian likes to lead the dance and throw punches-in-bunches, but Namajunas should be able to walk her into counters if she draws that aggression from Ribas.
How Ribas Wins
Ribas is a well-rounded contender with a lot of high-level experience. A Judo and jiu-jitsu black belt, Ribas’ kickboxing can also be quite effective when she’s able to get her combinations flowing and stay on the front foot.
Beating Namajunas feels like a tall but not impossible task for Ribas. On paper, Namajunas has a technical edge in most areas. However, Ribas — despite her durability issues — may have an advantage in the areas of grit and physicality. Ribas has thrived in some high-volume, brutal fights, and that’s never been an area that “Thug Rose” looks particularly comfortable.
Better yet, Ribas has five rounds to work. She can afford to get jabbed up for two rounds and then surge as Namajunas’ feet start to slow. To expedite that process, Ribas should be finishing her combinations with low kicks when Namajunas circles out of range. There may also be some value in clinch grinding, constant close range work both for takedowns and knees to the body, a strategy Karolina Kowalkiewicz used to great effect.
Namajunas vs. Ribas Prediction
It’s hard to go against the former champion here. Even without Trevor Wittman in her corner, Namajunas knows how to box to fluidly to avoid finding the chin of Ribas. Namajunas hits too hard and sets up her shots too well to avoid colliding with Ribas’ high chin at some point!
That’s not complicated analysis, but unless Namajunas has some kind of Esparza 2-esque shutdown — always possible! — it feels like a layup stylistic match up. Namajunas should touch up her opposition here with relatively little issue, enter the Flyweight title picture off the win, and be set up for a big match up next.
The best hands in women’s MMA get it done once more.
Prediction: Namajunas via knockout (+140)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 89 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.
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