Ngannou Vs. Ferreira Betting Odds, Prediction

Heavyweight sluggers, Francis Ngannou vs. Renan Ferreira, will collide TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 19, 2024) at PFL: “Battle of the Giants” inside Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

It’s been an eventful couple years for “The Predator,” who broke free from UFC’s grasp to secure his bag in the boxing ring at the cost of his first professional defeat via knockout. In the cage, however, Ngannou hasn’t lost since 2018. He remains the lineal Heavyweight champion of the world, and this bout is a chance to prove there’s still plenty left in the tank.

On the flip side, it’s only recently that Ferreira has come into his own and really proven himself on the world stage. The massive Brazilian has finished his last four fights via knockout and hasn’t come up short since Aug. 2022, meaning he carries a fair bit of momentum into this high-profile event.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Ngannou vs. Ferreira Betting Odds

• Francis Ngannou victory: -270
• Francis Ngannou via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Francis Ngannou via submission: TBD
• Francis Ngannou via decision: TBD
• Renan Ferreira victory: +220
• Renan Ferreira via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Renan Ferreira via submission: TBD
• Renan Ferreira via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Ngannou Wins

Just where does Ngannou stand on the pantheon of Heavyweight greats? Pretty high up in my eyes. There were some ups-and-downs in his development, but Ngannou turned raw physical strength and ungodly power into a complete MMA game, utilizing fundamentals more than anything else to turn his opponents into paste.

It’s unusual to see Ngannou on the wrong side of the height and reach equation, even if the difference is small. Generally, Ngannou likes to use his own long arms to his advantage by leaning back and countering after his foe comes up short. Against a fighter with the build of Ferreira, that will be more difficult unless the Brazilian overcommits — something he’s presumably spent an entire camp trying to avoid.

With that in mind, Ngannou has to initiate and perform like he did in the Miocic rematch. That fight didn’t last terrible long, but Ngannou did nice work at distance with his double jab-right hand, low kicks, and even brief Southpaw offense. Hopefully, all that time training for the ring has improved his jab and combination building further, because they feel like important assets here.

Worst case, Ngannou could also likely win this fight with a blast double, too.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

How Ferreira Wins

With 11 wins via knockout, Ferreira is a powerhouse himself. Standing at 6’8” with an 85” reach, the Brazilian doesn’t meticulously impose his reach advantage and fight at the very edge of his distance. Instead, he aggressively pursues counters and exchanges, taking advantage of the fact that long arms are more likely to land.

With his power, that’s usually enough.

Patience will be key here. Ferreira doesn’t want to lunge forward with a haymaker right away and get leveled by an Ngannou uppercut. He’s not the most technical distance fighter himself, but this bout may play out like a game of chicken between counter punchers trying to convince the other to walk into their shots.

The best way to convince the other guy to make a mistake is to hit him. Repeatedly. Ferreira has the size advantage here and should try to use it with jabs, front kicks, and lead kicks to those surgically repaired knees. If he can win the long range battle, he doesn’t have to worry about Ngannou’s counters and can focus on lining up his own big shot.

If that’s not working, he can still get wild and swing big — it’s worth the attempt at a strategy though.

Ngannou Vs. Ferreira Prediction

Unless you believe Ngannou is shot after the Anthony Joshua knockout (watch it), there’s no reason to pick against him.

It’s Heavyweight, and anybody could knock out anyone with a bit of luck, but “The Predator” is simply the much better fighter. He’s the better boxer, kicks harder, and wrestles more effectively. He’s possibly the greatest physical talent the division has ever seen, and despite his late start in the sport, Eric Nicksick and the crew at Xtreme Couture have done a great job at building a well-rounded functional MMA game.

Ngannou can win this fight in a variety of ways, whereas it feels like Ferreira will just be hoping his big shot lands. Even there, he’s outgunned, because if we’re talking pure puncher’s chance numbers, I’ll back Ngannou every time.

Prediction: Francis Ngannou via knockout

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